Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry

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Presentation transcript:

Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry as a Leading Forecasting Tool October 2009 The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

The Israeli Economy , 2008 Facts & Figures GDP ($Billion) 202 Population (Million) 7.3 GDP per capita ($) 27,650 Foreign Trade (% of GDP) 82% Total Exports (% of GDP) 40% Unemployment (Q2/09) 8.0% The Israeli Industry Share of business sector 20% Industrial Sales ($Billion) 99 Industrial Exports (% of sales) 41% Leading branches: Chemicals, Electronics & Food The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry Main Economic Parameters production Local Sales Work- Force Export Shipments Israeli Industry Overseas activities of Israeli companies Export prices & profitability Financing expenditure Investments The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry Industrial production Current Survey - Initial Findings (146 answers) Weighted Net Balance Total Increase Total Decrease 4.7% 38% 29% Q3/09 5.2% 40% 28% Q4/09F Weighted Net Balance = % of reporting an increase minus % of reporting a decrease, weighted according to intensity Moving average of 3 Quarters The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

According to ICBS Data Industry Continued Growing during H1/08 The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry Export Shipments The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry Local Sales The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry Industrial Work-Force The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

In H1/08 - Industrial Growth Derived from a Single Branch This is a good example to a typical situation in a small country, where the survey can reflects more clearly the real trend The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

The Survey’s ability to identify trend changes in early stages The timing gap in identifying trend changes in H1/08 Valuable timing gap November 2008 April 2008 According to the Survey: official data: The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

The Manufacturers' Association of Israel High & positive Correlation Between the Survey of Expectations in Industry & Official Data A report made by an external research company found out that: “80% of the observations were able to predict the accurate trend of changes in the index of industrial production, export and employment in correlation with the indexes published by the ICBS”. (Based on 1978-1995 data base). The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

High & positive Correlation Between the Survey of Expectations in Industry & Official Data A positive correlation of 0.81 The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

The Manufacturers' Association of Israel Survey of Expectations in Israeli Industry current survey - initial finding The Manufacturers' Association of Israel

Thank you Daphna Aviram-Nitzan Head of Economic Research Department Manufacturers' Association of Israel dafnan@industry.org.il Tel. 972-3-5198807 Mobile: 972-50-7478111