Le Duc National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast

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Presentation transcript:

Le Duc National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast A short range ensemble prediction system applied in TC forecast Le Duc National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast Jeju, 05 - 2009

Motivation The success of SREPS in other centers (SREPS in NCEP, COSMO-LEPS in ECMWF, SREPS in INM, …): The useful information of EPS in storm movement forecast (ECMWF EPS, NCEP EPS, JMA EPS) SREF can detect the occurrence of extreme phenomena like heavy rainfall, heat wave, …

We take the multi-model, multi-analysis approach. Method Breeding of growing mode (NCEP) Singular vectors (ECMWF) Observation perturbations (CMC) Ensemble transform Kalman filter Ensemble transform We take the multi-model, multi-analysis approach.

SREPS description 4 times per day, 72h forecast (00Z, 12Z), 48h forecast (06Z, 18Z) output format: netcdf (interpolated to a common area) parallel post processing (graphics) access through intranet

Computational resources PC Cluster 16 nodes, 4 cores per node, 8G RAM per node: BOLAM: 3 nodes Eta: 4 nodes HRM: 3 nodes WRFNMM: 6 nodes Dell 2 CPUs, 4 cores per CPU, 16G RAM: pre and post processing

Website

Stamp map: storm tracks

A member forecast

Strike probability maps

Point accumulated strike probability charts

Example: TC Higos

Stamp map: 06h precipitation

Precipitation probability maps

EPSgram Interpretation Image of boxplots of PDF Largest value Upper quartile Lower quartile Median Smallest value Interpretation of boxplots Image of PDF

Future work: new website

Future work: NAEFS

Future works Verification Post-processing: bias correction, BMA or NGM A specific SREPS for TC forecast: 5 models BoLAM, BRAMS, HRM, MM5, WRF-ARW, storm target domain Clustering

Thank you