Housing 2020 : What is Shaping the Future of Housing in Virginia

Problems emanating from the housing market forced financial institutions to take massive write-downs on their mortgage portfolios, igniting a broader banking crisis. Amid fears about the strength of banks and severe losses of both housing and stock wealth, consumer confidence plunged 41 percent below its lowest previous trough. Households slashed their spending andfor the first time on recordcut their net borrowing. State of the Nations Housing 2009

Where weve been in the last 5 years Our housing market has been defined by the housing crash over the past 5 years. Over 100,000 homes foreclosed in Virginia Construction of new homes nearly came to a halt Sales of existing homes dipped to record lows Nearly 25% of mortgages in Virginia are underwater or near underwater The homeownership rate began to decline for the first time

After several false starts, there is reason to believe that 2012 marks the beginning of a true housing market recovery. State of the Nations Housing 2012

Were beginning to hear noises that weve reached a major turning point in the housing market and that, with interest rates so low, this is a rare opportunity to buy. But are such observations on target? It would be comforting if they were. Yet the unfortunate truth is that the tea leaves dont clearly suggest any particular path for prices, either up or down. Robert Schiller, NYT, January 26, 2013

Housing 2020: Why? We need to look beyond recovery from the Housing Crash There are sweeping trends that are re-shaping housing in seismic ways. Our housing markets and products will be widely affected. Understanding these trends and their impacts will help us prepare our communities.

THINK BIG: What is shaping the future of housing in Virginia in the next decade?

Demographics Economics Finance Green/Sustainable

Part 1: Demographics Housing 2020

Demographics Virginias population is growing Regional growth varies greatly New households are different from the past The Millennials are here The Age Wave has arrived Housing preferences are changing

Demographics John Martin at SIR / Boomer Project CEO of the Boomer Project and president and CEO of the Southeastern Institute of Research John has been the guiding force behind the Older Dominion Partnership, an umbrella organization dedicated to studying the impact of the age wave on Virginia and how to prepare for it.

Population Growth How much growth? Where will it be? Who will it be? What does it mean for housing?

Putting future demographic change in perspective

Housing Virginia Video Presentations Population Growth in Perspective by John Martin Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

Where is the growth happening? Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

Demography is Destiny: Impacts on communities

Housing Virginia Video Presentations VAs Population Growth – Makeup and Expectations by John Martin Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

The AGE WAVE: What is it … What does it mean?

The AGE WAVE: Age Ready Communities

Why do we need to beAge Wave Ready?

Housing Virginia Video Presentations The Age Wage by John Martin Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation..

The AGE WAVE: Boomers are diverse; will make different housing choices as they retire

How are the new HHs in Virginia different from the past ?

Housing Virginia Video Presentations Shift in HH Makeup by John Martin Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

Multi-generational HHs on the rise

Multi-Generational HHs in Virginia

Multi generational HHs on the rise

No longer just the Walton family…

Household formation in decline CPS - Current Population Survey; HVS - Housing Vacancies and Homeownership; ACS – American Community Survey

Household Formation Unemployment for Millennials is twice the National Average Real Wages for Young People have Declined since in 3 btw age 18 and 25 report Moving back to Parents House House and Apartment Sharing is at High Levels CPS - Current Population Survey; HVS - Housing Vacancies and Homeownership; ACS – American Community Survey

Household formation in decline

Young HHs Have not been Forming HHs at Normal Rates

HH composition trends will continue:

HH composition trends will continue

Single and single parent HHs

The Millennials: here they come!

How are the Millennials changing everything?

Housing Virginia Video Presentations Gen Y by John Martin Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

Owning versus Renting - future housing choices

Housing Virginia Video Presentations Gen Y Perspective on Work/Living by John Martin Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

The Gen Y view of owning a home differs from their parents.

Housing Virginia Video Presentations Gen Y View on Home Ownership by John Martin Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

Self Supportive housing – new owners will place different demands on their homes

Housing Virginia Video Presentations Self Supportive Housing by John Martin Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

The Tailwind in the market: Boomers and Millennials converge on the same housing choice: Urban, walkable, connected, smaller, affordable, green

Housing Virginia Video Presentations Tailwinds by John Martin Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

The NEW FRU

What the new frugality means for housing?

Housing Virginia Video Presentations The New FRU by John Martin Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

Takeaways: Demographics 80% of VA population growth in the Crescent The Age Wave is NOW – Boomers still drive the market… but in a different direction Aging in place creates new demands on the housing stock Multi – Gen HHs need different housing design and style Single headed HHs / non-family HHs will continue to rise Immigrants / Minorities – VA will be majority minority by 2040 Millennials – a different view of housing / not as central as for boomers The TAILWIND : Boomers and Millennials converge on housing preferences: urban, smaller, affordable, green

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