1. Generational Trends – Millenials Change Homeownership Rules... And Licensees Glenn E. Crellin Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies University of Washington ARELLO Annual Conference September 21, 2013

2. Acknowledgments  Principal Sponsors of this research  Washington Department of Licensing, Real Estate Program  Realtor® University Research Center  General Sponsors of Runstad Center Research  Washington Realtors®  Washington State Housing Finance Commission

3. Generational Trends and Real Estate  Understanding Generations  Population Demographics  Homebuyer Demographics  Licensee Demographics  Demographics and Technology  Demographics and Education

4. Identifying Generations  G.I. Generation  Born 1900-1924: Age 87+  Silent Generation  Born 1925-1945: Age 66-86  Baby Boom  Born 1946-1964: Age 47-65  Generation X/Baby Bust  Born 1965-1979: Age 32-46  Generation Y/Millennials/Echo Boom  Born 1980-2000: Age 11-31  Generation Z/Internet Generation  Born 2001-present

5. Age Distribution of Population

6. Era of Renters?  Media suggests Millennials prefer to rent … forever  Mobility  Part-time jobs  Fear of ownership  Student debt  Urban lifestyle  Hasty Generalization

7. Historical Context  Mankiw and Weil, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1989  “The entry of the Baby Boom generation into its house-buying years is found to be the major cause of the increase in real housing prices in the 1970s. Since the Baby Bust generation is now entering its house-buying years, housing demand will grow more slowly in the 1990s than in any time in the past 40 years. If the historical relation between housing demand and housing prices continues into the future, real housing prices will fall substantially over the next two decades.”

8. Recent U.S. Homeownership Rates

9. Homeownership Rate by Age of Householder

10. Homeownership Rate by Age Group (Percent) <2525-3435-4445-5455-6465-7475-8485+ 196012.546.254.548.446.4 197013.845.666.169.961.4 198018.150.270.846.969.3 199017.145.366.275.379.778.870.4 200017.945.666.274.979.881.377.366.1 201016.142.062.371.577.380.277.966.2 GISilentBoomX/Bust Y/Millennial

11. Profile of Washington Home Buyers 2010

12. Future Housing Plans

13. Generational Composition of Workforce

14. Technology is Innate

15. Usage of Social Media for Business

16. Licensee Advertising on Craigslist.org

17. Real Estate Has Low Education Entry Barrier, But…

18. Education by Generational Cohort of Licensees

19. Preferred Delivery of Continuing Education