OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

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OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

THE WAR ON TERROR U.S.-imposed rules of the game Co-existence with geo-economic game Ideological divisions: left, right, center Prevalence of democratic discourse Focus on “strategic options” Unavailable alternatives: Bolivarian dream of collective unity Rule of international law, organizations

1. TURN TO THE NORTH Vicente Fox (Mexico) Hopes for immigration reform NAFTA constraints Opposition throughout Latin America Comrades in the War on Terror Colombia Guatemala The FTA Club Chile [special case] Central America + DR Peru Panama

2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY Brazil (Lula + Dilma) Venezuela (Chávez) Grandeza brasileira Role in Haiti Resistance to FTAA Venezuela (Chávez) ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas) International assistance programs Alliances with Cuba and “pink tide” countries Denunciations of Bush and USA Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)

3. REVOLUTIONARY OPTIONS? Cuba (Castros) Armed rebellion no longer a path Fatigue of revolutionary society Institutionalization of charisma Venezuela (Chávez) “Socialism for the 21st Century” Linkage to Cuba and Fidel Bolivia (Morales) Indigenismo Politics of ethnic reivindicación

4. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY Brazil (Lula) WTO Group of 20+ (a.k.a. 21) G3, G5 Venezuela (Chávez) Non-Aligned Movement UN Security Council Petroleum exporters (including Iran)

5. OUTSIDE THE HEMISPHERE Europe Divisions over Iraq Concern about EU future FTAs with Mexico, Chile Distancing from/by Spain Asia Withdrawal of Japan Eruption of “China fever” PRC “strategic partnerships” with Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico; “cooperative partnership” with Chile, “friendly and cooperative relations” with Cuba Iran? Really?

ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS Exports to China, 2008: Liberation from IMF: Argentina 9.0% Brazil 12.4% Chile 4.8% Mexico 0.7% Cuba 18.4% Liberation from IMF: Argentina 2005 ($9.8 bn) Brazil 2005 ($15.5 bn) IMF “relegated to sidelines”

POLITICAL DIMENSIONS Distaste for GWB and U.S. policies Resuscitation of Cuba Regional organizations w/o USA: Rio Group (1986, 23 members) Latin American Summit on Integration and Development (2008, 33 members) CELAC (2010, 33 members) Ibero-American Summits (1991) MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus) UNASUR (2005)

BILATERAL DIMENSIONS Argentina: “a distant relationship” Brazil: “getting better all the time” Chile: “cooperative friendship” Colombia: “strategic partners or uncertain allies?”

DISTINCTIONS? Regional: South America vs. Mexico/Central America/Caribbean Political A: Right vs. Left Political B: Moderate vs. Radical U.S. Power: Diminished or Unused?

THE BENEFITS OF INATTENTION?