1. REVOLUTION: WHY THEN AND NOT NOW?

2. 13. DYNAMICS OF POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION
Categories for Analysis
Oligarchic Rule and Top-Down Reform
(1880s-1920s)
Populism and Dictatorship (1930s-1970s)
The Revolutionary Path (1950s-1980s)
An Expansion of Democracy (1980s-Present)
The Pulse of Democratic Change

3. WHAT IS A REVOLUTION?
“an extralegal seizure of political power, by the use or threat of force, for the purpose of bringing about structural change in the distribution of political, social, or economic power”
not the same as routine barracks revolts or golpes de estado

4. WHY THEN (1950s-70s)? Authoritarian regimes Socioeconomic inequality
Personalist, corrupt
Military repression
No real elections
Socioeconomic inequality
Communication and awareness
Cityward migration, social mobilization
Marxist ideology
Call for revolution
Soviet + Chinese support
Example of Cuba (1959)

5. AND NOW…? (1980s-2000s) Political democracy Socioeconomic development
Dissent through elections
Opposition victories
Emergence of “new left”
Socioeconomic development
Middle-class aspirations + conservative values
Prosperity (of sorts) since 2004
Liberal ideology
Rejection of Marxism
“End of history”
Example of Cuba (1990s-present)

7. THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT: WHY?
Economic—lack of growth (through 2003), poverty and inequality, frustration with Washington Consensus
Political—weakness of representative institutions, inattention to poor, persistence of corruption; possibility of winning elections
International—war in Iraq, opposition to Bush policies and growing distaste for American society

8. THE NEW LEFT: WHERE? South America: Central America: Near-Miss:
Venezuela
Brazil
Argentina
Bolivia
Ecuador
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Central America:
Honduras
Nicaragua
El Salvador
Near-Miss:
Mexico

9. THE NEW LEFT: GOALS
Domestic—winning power, rearranging electoral alignments; overturning status quo, changing policy direction, promoting social justice
Hemispheric—gaining support throughout Latin America, reducing U.S. hegemony
Global—challenging international order, forging alliances with developing world and non-aligned nations

11. CONSEQUENCES
Democracy = broad ideological spectrum, from “left” to “right”
Prosperity = mixed economies; rejection of Washington Consensus
Ideology = diversity rather than unity
Alliances = suspicion of U.S. leadership and rules of the game

12. The End.