A Family Affair: Jerome Stein (Father, Econ) and Seth Stein (Son, Geo)

Natural Hazard Assessment Events are often more powerful or damaging than expected. Sometimes, mitigation measures are not designed for the impact. Selecting mitigation strategies Hazard assessments have large uncertainties How much mitigation is enough? Best discussed using cost/benefit analysis 12/1/2018

Calculating Risk Cost of mitigation Scale of natural hazard C(n), where n is a measure of the level of mitigation. Scale of natural hazard h, such as the height of a storm surge, an earthquake’s magnitude, or the level of the resulting ground shaking. Predicted annual economic loss, L(h,n) increases with h and decreases with n. The annual probability of an event h p(h), the occurrence of events of a certain size The value of the expected loss (RISK) is: 12/1/2018

Calculating the financial investment (lost potential) 12/1/2018

The Optimum Mitigation 12/1/2018

K(n) (Stein and Stein, 2013, GSA Today)

K(n) or C’(n) Q’(n) (Stein and Stein, 2013, GSA Today)

K(n) K(n) or C’(n) Q’(n) (Stein and Stein, 2013, GSA Today)

(Walker et al., 2010; reproduced in Cox, 2012)

Communicating Uncertainty (Stein and Geller, 2012, EOS) 12/1/2018

Communicating Uncertainty (Stein and Geller, 2012, EOS) 12/1/2018

(Stein and Stein, 2013, EOS) 12/1/2018