Quarterly National Accounts Nico van Stokrom

Quarterly National Accounts Agenda Introduction Methodology in practice Compilation -> Balancing -> Publication Six-pack of SUT/QNA + excercise Benchmarking Acceleration to t+30 Special items

Introduction Quarterly national accounts Provide a comprehensive, quantitative, systematic and consistent description of the economy on a quarterly basis Main purpose: measurement of GDP growth Publication as soon as possible

Brief history of Dutch QNA March 1986: first press release 1985 QII, regular estimate T+110 Quarterly series back to 1977 1993: First publication of flash estimate 1992 QIV (T+55); only volume growth of GDP, both original T/(T-4) and seasonally adjusted T/(T-1) 1996: Transition from I/O-tables to SUT 1999: Publication of more detailed flash estimates (QII) 2001: Acceleration, flash estimate T+45, regular estimate T+90 2010/2011: Experimental flash estimates T+30 (reporting period 2010) October 2013: Restart experimental flash estimates T+30 (from 2013 QIII)

Introduction QNA publications Germany Statistisches Bundesambt t+45 Italy Istat Belgium Nationale Bank België / Instituut voor Nationale Rekeningen t+45  Switserland Bundesambt fur Statistik - US Bureau of Economic Analyses t+30 UK Office for National Statistics t+25

Introduction Main users of QNA information Dutch press and public in general Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB, forecasts) Dutch Central Bank Private enterprises Eurostat European Central Bank Other international organisations (OECD, IMF, UN etc.)

Methodology Dutch QNA Planning (Q)NA t+45 QNA flash estimate t+90 QNA revised estimate February: first annual estimate based on the revised estimates of the first three quarters and the flash estimate of the fourth quarter March: second annual estimate based on the updated revised estimates of the first three quarters and the revised estimate of the fourth quarter June: provisional annual estimate (third annual estimate) t+1,5 Revised provisional annual estimate t+2,5 Definitive provisional estimate t+ … Revision

Methodology Dutch QNA 1 Compilation of data Adjustments to meet the (Q)NA requirements Important tools 2 Balancing procedure Balancing for each commodity GDP: result of production and expenditure Plausibility checks 3 Publication - Communication

Methodology Dutch QNA: sources Compilation - Balancing - Publication Mostly from Statistics Netherlands: sample surveys mostly sales and turnover (not for all types of industries), price statistics Other institutions e.g. Central Bank, branch organisations Administrative data (e.g. VAT records, business accounts, accounts of central government) Extrapolation and projection techniques

Methodology Dutch QNA: adjustments Compilation - Balancing - Publication Adjustments to meet the (Q)NA requirements (by the branch and final expenditure specialists) Check data for continuity Complete the data Check data for plausibility Adapt data to definitions and classifications

Methodology Dutch QNA: tools Compilation - Balancing - Publication Important tools Generally applied definitions Classification of goods and services and value added components Classification of economic activities Register of economic actors grouped according to their principle activity

Compilation - Balancing - Publication Methodology Dutch QNA Compilation - Balancing - Publication National accounts ‘identity’ Economy (value added) = Y Production approach Expenditure approach Y = P – IC Y = C + I + (E-M) Integration  P + M = IC +C + I + E or supply = use A specialist for each branche and expenditure category Examples: agriculture,manufacture of chemicals,consumption

Methodology Dutch QNA Compilation - Balancing - Publication Quarterly SUT as a tool for integration of short term statistics (monthly/quarterly) Fill SUT with basic data usually turnover (output) Add expenditure data Separate information on wages and labour In case lack of information: assumptions (e.g. constant input output ratio’s) + additional calculations Result is an unbalanced SUT with discrepancies between supply and use of commodities

Methodology Dutch QNA Building SUT: base SUT same quarter t-1 Compilation - Balancing - Publication Building SUT: base SUT same quarter t-1 Volume-indicators  SUT in COP year t-1 Inflating SUT in CUP year t-1 + value indicators  SUT in current prices Eliminating discrepancies in a process of simultaneous balancing in CUP and COP Exactly the same method (e.g. detail level) for regular and for flash estimates

Methodology Dutch QNA Compilation - Balancing - Publication

Is one of the special items Methodology Dutch QNA Compilation - Balancing - Publication Is one of the special items

Methodology Dutch QNA ‘Six–pack’ of SUT/QNA

The ‘six-pack’ of SUT/QNA Value Index

The ‘six-pack’ of SUT/QNA Option 1: in quarterly prices

The ‘six-pack’ of SUT/QNA Option 2: in average year prices

Exercise on beer production  2010 QI QII Year   Quantity in litres 500 1.000 Price per litre € 1,00 € 2,00 X Average year price X  Production value CUP Production value at average year prices  2011 400 600 € 2,50  X Production value CP at quarterly prices Production value CP at average year prices

Exercise on beer production  2010 QI QII Year   Quantity in litres 500 1.000 Price per litre € 1,00 € 2,00 X Average year price € 1,50 X  Production value CUP € 500 € 1000 € 1500 Production value at average year prices € 750  2011 400 600 € 2,50  X Production value CP at quarterly prices Production value CP at average year prices

Exercise on beer production  2010 QI QII Year   Quantity in litres 500 1.000 Price per litre € 1,00 € 2,00 X Average year price € 1,50 X  Production value CUP € 500 € 1000 € 1500 Production value at average year prices € 750  2011 400 600 € 2,50  X € 800 € 2300 Production value CP at quarterly prices € 400 € 1200 € 1600 Production value CP at average year prices € 600 € 900

The ‘sixpack’ with quarterly prices Year The ‘sixpack’ with quarterly prices CUP 800 200 pi CUP 1.500 125 pi CUP 2.300 144 pi COP 400 voi COP 1.200 voi COP 1.600 voi CUP kt-4 500 160 vai CUP kt-4 1.000 150 vai CUP kt-4 1.500 153 vai

The ‘sixpack’ with quarterly pices Year The ‘sixpack’ with quarterly pices Quarter 1 CUP 800 200 pi CUP 1.500 125 pi CUP 2.300 144 pi COP 400 80 voi COP 1.200 120 voi COP 1.600 107 voi CUP kt-4 500 160 vai CUP kt-4 1.000 150 vai CUP kt-4 1.500 153 vai

The ‘sixpack’ with average year prices Quarter 2 Year The ‘sixpack’ with average year prices Quarter 1 CUP 800 133 pi CUP 1.500 167 pi CUP 2.300 153 pi COP 600 voi COP 900 voi COP 1.500 voi COP kt-4 750 160 vai COP kt-4 750 150 vai COP kt-4 1.500 153 vai

The ‘sixpack’ with average year prices Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Year The ‘sixpack’ with average year prices CUP 800 133 pi CUP 1.500 167 pi CUP 2.300 153 pi COP 600 80 voi COP 900 120 voi COP 1.500 100 voi COP kt-4 750 160 vai COP kt-4 750 150 vai COP kt-4 1.500 153 vai

Benchmarking February year t+1: first annual estimate year t by adding Q1(R), Q2(R), Q3(R), Q4(F) (basis is definitive year t-3) March year t+1: finalizing year t-1, benchmarking 4 quarters year t-1 (basis is definitive year t-2) and subsequently the 4 quarters of year t June year t+1: the adjusted 4 quarters of year t are the basis for the first provisional annual estimate of year t. These once more adjusted 4 quarters of year t serve as a basis of the 4 quarters of year t+1

Accelerated flash estimate Acceleration to t+30 and test estimates Theory Sources and source coverage Test estimates in 2011 Reliability Recommendations

Accelerated flash estimate Relative source coverage production side ▪ Producers of goods ▪ Producers of commercial services ▪ Producers of non-commercial services

Accelerated flash estimate Relative source coverage expenditure side ▪ Consumption ▪ Trade balance services ▪ Stock changes ▪ Investments ▪ Trade balance goods

Accelerated flash estimate Source coverage GDP growth   Coverage Δ GDP Production goods Production commercial services Productie non-commercial services T+21 21% 16% 5% 0% T+28 34% 17% 12% T+75 69% 22% 42%   Coverage Consumption Investments Δ stocks Trade Δ GDP households government Balance Goods Services T+21 23% 12% 0% 2% 8% T+28 34% 15% 6% 3% 10% T+75 51% 20% 9% 4%

Publication procedure QNA Publication program: Inform press officer Editing press release (flash) Editing report on adjustments (revised estimate) Try outs press conference Release: press conference and press release

Quality and adjustments Year Economic growth Bias 1991 2,2 0,0 1992 2,1 0,3 1993 0,8 0,6 1994 3,2 1,0 1995 2,3 -0,1 1996 3,1 0,5 1997 3,8 0,9 1998 4,4 1999 4,0 0,4 2000 3,5 -0,2 2001 1,4 2002 0,1 2003 1,1 2004 2005 2,0 2006 3,4 2007 3,9 2008 1,8    -0,2 2009 -3,7    0,3 2010 1,5 2011 (Provisional) -0,3 2012 (Provisional) -1,2

Quality and adjustments Y-O-Y 2003 GDP   Q-O-Q QNA NA Q1 -0,3 0,8 0,2 Q2 -0,9 -0,2 -0,5 Q3 -1,1 0,1 Q4 0,7 0,3 0,6 Y -0,8 GFCFcorp GFCFgov -6,3 -5,8 -5,5 -1,2 -3,8 -3,5 -4,8 -2,2 -1,9 1,0 -2,0 3,6 1,2 2,3 -3,6 -2,7 0,4

Quality and adjustments Y-O-Y 2003 Consumption (hh)   Consumption (government) QNA NA Q1 0,3 0,5 2,4 3,2 Q2 -1,2 2,5 2,1 Q3 -1,4 -0,6 2,7 2,6 Q4 -1,8 -0,7 2,3 3,8 Y -1,3 -0,2 2,9 Import Export 3,5 1,3 0,9 -1,7 0,4 -1,5 2,0 3,6 1 1,8 1,5