Prof. Em. Nuclear Civil Engineering Sustainable Electricity Supply in the World by 2050 for Economic Growth and Automotive Fuel Paul Kruger Prof. Em. Nuclear Civil Engineering Stanford University FIEM - 2009

Outline Introduction Appropriate Technology Electricity Demand for Hydrogen Fuel Electricity Demand for an Electric Vehicle Fleet Energy Resources for a Sustainable Electricity Supply Conclusions

World Energy Consumption per Capita Energy Population Intensity Year (EJ) (billion) (GJ/cap) 1900 22 1.65 13.3 2000 400 6.05 66.1 Increase 18 x 3.6 x 5 x

World Electricity Intensity 1980 – 2005 – 2030

World Electric Energy Intensity 1980 - 2030 Electricity Generation Population Intensity Year (PWh) (Billion) (MWh/cap) 1980 8.03 4.45 1.80 2030 33.26 8.37 3.97 Ratio 4.1 X 1.9 X 2.2 X

Start of Official Environmental Awareness in the U.S.A. NEPA,1969, First Law of the New Decade, Signed into law 1 January 1970 as recognition of a National Policy for the Environment Considers such Broad Problems as Population Growth Resource Exploitation Appropriate Technology

Specific Energy of Major Fuels

Appropriate Technology as f(Specific Energy) For Large Numbers of Distributed Small-Scale Applications: (e.g., Energy for Individual Buildings) → Low-Specific Energy Resources For Small Numbers of Central Large-Scale Applications: (e.g., Energy for Metropolitan Cities) → High-Specific Energy Resources

Electricity for a HFCV Fleet ? New and Future Demands for Electricity: • Information technology (the Internet) • Mobile cell phones (and apps) • Home management systems • Homeland security • Electric vehicle fleet • Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle fleet

Electricity and Hydrogen Fuel Demand Model, World Input Parameters 2008 Parameter Initial Value Units Population 6.87 Billion Vehicle fleet 801 Million Travel distance 9.84 TVKT Fuel economy var km/gal Electricity demand 21.0 TkWh

World Vehicle Fleet 2010 – 2050

Ford Motor Co. Production 1903-1923

World HFuel Requirement

World Electricity Demand

Electricity for an Electric Vehicle Fleet Electric vehicles as a transitional or permanent replacement of fossil fuels for automotive vehicles? Appropriate Technology for Electric Vehicle and/or Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicle Fleets? Issues for Non-Cost Consideration: Lag time for production to meaningful fleets Maximum storage of motive “fuel” Maximum driving range; Minimum mass Fuel-cycle environmental impacts

Electricity Demand for BEV Recharging 2010 - 2050 Parameter Initial Value Units Initial No. vehicles 10,000 Mean annual GrRate 30 %/a Daily vehicle travel 30 mi/day Annual days of travel 260 days/yr Charge depletion rate 0.25→0.17 kWh/mi Recharge efficiency 0.85 kWh/kWh

Electricity Consumption by Local Travel w/ Hydrogen and Electric Fuel Vehicles

Comparison of Electricity Consumption between BEV Fleet and HFCV Fleet Fleet EFleet HFleet Ratio Year (106) (TWh) (TWh) (HFlt/EFlt) 2010 0.01 0.023 0.098 4.3 2030 1.90 3.66 13.3 3.6 2050 361 563 1878 3.3

Sustainability of Electricity Supply for a Growing Population ? The Increase in electric energy demand can be forecast by estimating the Integral of the Business-as-Usual growth in demand for Current and New Technologies and the Decrease in demand by estimating the Integral of Technical and Regulated Conservation. ∆ED = ∫(B.a.U.)0 egt dt – ∫(Cons)0 ect dt

Distribution of Major Energy Resources Forecast Forecast Fossil On-Line DOE Model Renew Fuels Nuclear Year (PWh) (PWh) (PWh) (PWh) (PWh) 2005 17.3 -- 0.32 11.5 2.63 2010 21.0 21.0 0.43 14.6 2.75 2030 33.3 27.5 0.56 24.5 3.76 magr 2.6 1.4 2.0 3.0 1.5 2050 n/a 36.0 18.0 X Y

Resources for a World Electricity Supply of 36 PWh/a by 2050 Electricity Supply No. Units Resource (PWh) (%) Needed Solar conversion 25 Residential PV 3 300 million Structural PV 3 10 million Thermal farms 3 17,000 Wind turbines 9 25 600,000 Nuclear reactors 18 50 1,800 (Fossil fuel energy = 18 PWh x (X/50%)

World Nuclear Electricity

Nuclear Production of Hydrogen Nuclear electricity for reforming of natural gas Off-Peak utilization of electricity for electrolysis of heated cooling water High-Temperature electrolysis of steam Thermochemical dissociation of water

Conclusions Under B.a.U. (or smaller) growth rate, world electricity demand will grow from 20 to ~ 36 Trillion kWh/a by 2050. (2) The lag time to replace fossil fuels with significant amounts of alternative energy resources will be ~ 15 to 25 years. (3) Renewable energy is best suited for large numbers of small-scale distributed installations; Nuclear energy is best suited for smaller numbers of large-scale centralized installations.