Managing the migration crisis How statistics can help NTTS 2017 Brussels, 13/3/2017 Luca Pappalardo – European Commission Luca.Pappalardo@ec.europa.eu

Magnitude of the challenge Migration flows Magnitude of the challenge Source: Frontex

Magnitude of the challenge Migration flows Magnitude of the challenge Source: Frontex

The migration crisis in figures Source: Frontex

The migration crisis in figures Source: Frontex

EU Integrated Political Crisis Response (IPCR) At the end of October 2015, for the first time in the history of the European Union, the Luxembourg Presidency activated the EU Integrated Political Crisis Response arrangements. Initially activated in information sharing mode, ten days later, on 9 November 2015, the IPCR mechanism was activated in full. The IPCR is a flexible crisis mechanism for supporting the presidency of the Council of the European Union in dealing with major natural or man-made disasters. The IPCR arrangements provide the presidency with tools set up to facilitate information sharing, joint decision making, and coordination of the response at the highest political level. Both level of activations, ‘information sharing’ and ‘full activation’, entail the possibility for the Member States and the Institutions to exchange information on a dedicated IPCR web platform, accessible to a closed community of users.

What is the ISAA report? Integrated Situational Awareness and Analysis report Produced within the EU Integrated Political Crisis Response (IPCR) arrangement IPCR mechanism triggered in full mode on November 2015 in relation with the refugee and migration crisis Via the web platform is disseminated also the Integrated Situational Awareness and Analysis report (so called ‘ISAA report’), a key document within the IPCR arrangements. It’s a confidential analytical report, prepared under the leadership of the most relevant service in the Commission or the EEAS for the given crisis. DG Migration and Home Affaires was determined as ISAA lead for the migratory crisis. The aim of the ISAA report is to provide decision makers with a clear common picture of the current situation, on the basis of joint information collection and analysis.

What is ISAA report? Produced weekly by the European Commission and EEAS Includes inputs from MSs and EU agencies (Frontex, EASO, Europol,…) Tailored at the needs of the political level Allows a strategic overview of the situation and an informed debate

What's in the report Analysis of the situation Assessment of the EU response Identification of critical issues and possible shortcomings

Analysis of the situation Arrivals Operations / incidents Movements within EU and in the WB Asylum applications …… The analysis provided includes trends and figures about: Arrivals along the main routes and at specific locations Subsequent movements within the EU and in the WB, but also information on and monitoring of new routes Number of incidents occurred and the result of Save and Rescue operations Countries of origin and departure of the migrants Modus operandi of smugglers Trend of the asylum applications in the Member States

Assessment of the EU response Reception capacity Relocations Resettlements Deployment (officers/equipment) Support to MSs …… The analysis of the EU response contains an assessment of: • Reception capacity and availability • Relocations carried out and the pledges for relocations put forwards by the Members States • Resettlements • The deployment on the ground of EU Agencies officers and MS experts, as well as of technical equipment. • In-kind and financial support to MS and to other countries in need in the framework of the Union Civil Protection Mechanism • Assisted Voluntary Returns

Managing migration beyond the crisis Other statistical activities Cooperation with Eurostat on asylum statistics, enforcement of immigration legislation, residence permits Cooperation with JRC: Knowledge Centre on Migration and Demography Cooperation with MSs on specific data collations (IRMA, returns)

Statistics: the policy needs Data: TIMELINESS Methodology: Assessment of reliability of the source Tools for reconciling of different source Potential political bias in the data sources

Statistics: the policy needs Not just timeliness: accuracy Size of revisions of arrivals along the Eastern Mediterranean route DG Home calculation on FRONTEX data

Back to figures Source: Frontex

Thank you for your attention! Luca Pappalardo European Commission Directorate General Migration and Home Affairs Knowledge hub for migration and security Luca.Pappalardo@ec.europa.eu