Seasonal Climate Forecast For NAME 2004 J. E. Schemm

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Presentation transcript:

Seasonal Climate Forecast For NAME 2004 J. E. Schemm CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA NAME SWG-6, April 23, 2004

NAME Seasonal Climate Prediction Forecasts IRI forecast for NAME NCEP/CPC Seasonal Outlook Monitoring SST, ENSO, TAO, Observed Precip, Temp,Height Circulation Indices Nino 3.4 SST Forecast CDC, CPC, IRI Assessment GCM Forecast IRI, NCEP, NSSIP, Scripps ENSO Assessment References Statistical Forecast CDC, CPC OCN, SM, CA, Composites List of Acronyms Forecast Protocol

Impact of initial soil moisture on circulation

Impact of initial soil moisture on precip over US monsoon region

Impact of initial soil moisture on precipitation

Impact of initial soil moisture on surface temperature

Forecast Experiment Protocol Basic forecast periods: June - August and July-September, 2004. Domain of interest: US and Mexico with focus on the NAME Tier 3 region. Variables of interest: Seasonal mean surface temperature and precipitation anomalies. Method: Dynamical or statistical forecasts. Deadline for submission: May 25, 2004 for June-August 2004 forecast. June 25, 2004 for July-September 2004 forecast. All participants are requested to fill out following questionnaire.

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