1. © 2007 Lawrence Moore June 2008 Climate Briefing  Recent Climate Variability  Seasonal Outlook for the Globe  ENSO Status and Tutorial

2. Onset of the Northern Monsoons June minus May Climatological Precipitation

3. Moron et al., 2008 (Climate Dynamics, JATBS) Onset of SW Monsoon in the Philippines Annual Cycle of precipitation Predicting onset using CCA

4. MAY Leading EOFs: Rainfall and SST Anomaly (1979-2008) Rainfall (16.9%) SST (24.5%) R = 0.92 EEE E E E E E E L L L L L L

5. Observed SST and Precipitation Anomalies May 2008

6. Composite 850 hPa Anomalous Streamfunction (Std.) MAY (15 La Niña Events) Predictor: Observed March SST

7. La Niña?El Niño ? Onset Late?49 Onset Early?112 P < 0.015 Onset of the Indian Monsoon at Kerala Kerala

8. La Niña?El Niño ? Onset Late?49 Onset Early?112 P < 0.015 Onset of the Indian Monsoon at Kerala

9. QUESTIONS?