PRIMES and SCENES comparison Ian Williams, WSP, UK Part of the TREMOVE team CAFE Stakeholder Consultation, Brussels 27 & 28 May 2003

Comparison Outline the SCENES model Compare input assumptions to the two models Analyse results output by the two models Future developments to the SCENES model for TREMOVE

SCENES European Transport Model Incorporates all travel on all modes for all EU and much of the rest of Europe Has separate passenger and freight demand modules 4 stage model - feedback loop for highway congestion Uses 206 EU zones, plus externals 1995 Validation, 2020 forecast scenarios

EU15 Growth Rates

EU15 Gross Domestic Product Growth Rates

Further SCENES development for TREMOVE Change GDP growth rates to match those in PRIMES. Change population growth rates for the Accession Countries to match those in PRIMES Include parameter updates for passenger supply characteristics and various other improvements Change car ownership growth rate assumptions to match the TREMOVE vehicle stock model forecasts - Those that are currently input to SCENES are believed to be rather high in some countries

EU15 Transport Growth Rates