United Nations Statistics Division DESA, New York martinho@un.org Workshop on MDG Monitoring Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2009 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Maria Martinho United Nations Statistics Division DESA, New York martinho@un.org

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Outline Global monitoring and the work by the Inter-agency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators (IAEG) Compilation of international sources Improving international sources and resolving data gaps and discrepancies Next steps Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Outline Global monitoring and the work by the Inter-agency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators (IAEG) Compilation of international sources Improving international sources and resolving data gaps and discrepancies Next steps Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 IAEG on MDG Indicators The Inter-Agency and Expert Group (IAEG) on MDG Indicators Holds 2 meetings per year Coordinated by the UN Statistics Division/DESA Composed of representatives from: Over 25 specialized agencies UN Regional commissions National Statistical Offices Thematic sub-groups of the IAEG Gender Employment Health Poverty and hunger Environment Slums Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

IAEG and MDG monitoring IAEG is responsible for: Compiling data and undertaking analysis to monitor progress towards the MDGs at the global and regional levels Reporting on status of annual progress through printed reports, progress charts, databases, etc. Reviewing and preparing guidelines on methodologies and technical issues related to the indicators Helping define priorities and strategies to support countries in data collection, analysis and reporting on MDGs Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Outline Global monitoring and the work by the Inter-agency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators (IAEG) Compilation of international sources Improving international sources and resolving data gaps and discrepancies Next steps Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Revised MDG monitoring framework: proposals by the IAEG To ensure comparability across countries and regions, data used for the global monitoring are compiled by international agencies within their area of expertise For each indicator, one or more agencies were designated to be the official data providers and to take the lead in developing appropriate methodologies for data collection and analysis. Data are typically drawn from official statistics provided by governments to the international agencies responsible for the indicator, through periodic data collection from ministries and NSOs (ex. ILO)…. or collected through surveys sponsored and carried out by international agencies (ex. MICS, DHS) Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Data provided by the international agencies Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Data compilation: from national sources to the MDG database International agency country office Agency Headquarters eg. UNICEF MDG Indicators database 60 MDG indicators + background/additional indicators 192 Member States 1990-2009 mdgs.un.org Agency Headquarters eg. UNESCO Line Ministry in the country National Statistical Office in the country Agency Headquarters eg. ILO Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Data availability in international sources Indicator Countries with at least 1 data point Countries with at least 2 data points Number % Population below $1 (PPP) per day 89 55 67 41 Children under 5 moderately or severely underweight 116 71 98 60 Total net enrolment ratio in primary education 142 87 126 77 Literacy rates 119 73 99 61 Share of women in wage employment in non-agricultural sector 155 95 108 66 Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births 138 85 Maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births 120 74 HIV prevalence among population 15-24 years old 101 62 Condom use at last high-risk sex, women 52 32 24 15 Contraceptive use 102 63 Tuberculosis death rate per 100,000 population 156 96 Proportion of the population using improved sanitation 137 84 Slum population 105 64 Source: MDG Indicators Database, at mdgs.un.org Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

But where are the data from? Indicator Countries with at least 1 data point Countries with at least 2 data points Number % Population below $1 (PPP) per day 89 55 67 41 Children under 5 moderately or severely underweight 116 71 98 60 Total net enrolment ratio in primary education 142 87 126 77 Literacy rates 119 73 99 61 Share of women in wage employment in non-agricultural sector 155 95 108 66 Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births 138 85 Maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births 120 74 HIV prevalence among population 15-24 years old 101 62 Condom use at last high-risk sex, women 52 32 24 15 Contraceptive use 102 63 Tuberculosis death rate per 100,000 population 156 96 Proportion of the population using improved sanitation 137 84 Slum population 105 64 Country data Modelled Estimated Source: MDG Indicators Database, at mdgs.un.org Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Different types of data in international data sources Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

An example: ILO, Indicator for Goal 3 Indicator 3.2. Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector Estimated values vs. Predicted values Estimations based on auxiliary variables Total paid employment Total employment in non-agriculture Employees Total employment Economically Active Population in non-agriculture Empirical analysis shows that strong correlation exits between the indicator and the auxiliary variables. Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

An example: ILO, Indicator for Goal 3 Indicator 11. Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector Estimated values vs. Predicted values Predictions based on statistical models Only used to produce regional and global aggregates A separate two-level model is developed for each of the 5 regions, considering: between-countries variation over time within-country variation over time Based on the assumption that available data are representative of a country’s deviation from the average trend in its region, across time Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Outline Global monitoring and the work by the Inter-agency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators (IAEG) Compilation of international sources Improving international sources and resolving data gaps and discrepancies Next steps Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Improving international sources Recommendations of the friends of the Chair to improve further the compilation of the indicators used in the monitoring of the MDGs In July 2006, the Economic and Social Council adopted its resolution 2006/6 on strengthening statistical capacity in countries and included a set of recommendations to improve the coverage, transparency and reporting on all indicators Since then, the Inter-Agency and Expert Group has been working to implement the recommendations of the friends of the Chair and those contained in the ECOSOC resolution Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 Work of the IAEG Improve data quality and transparency of methods Work with countries to identify priorities in national statistical capacity building Work with countries to identify best practices for coordination within national statistical systems and for reporting mechanisms to the international statistical system Address key methodological issues, including the use of population figures, in the computation of the indicators Develop improve training tools on the compilation of the indicators Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Resolving data discrepancies Improve consistency and transparency in reporting and presenting data and metadata for the international monitoring Adoption of the common platform for data exchange, the Statistical Data and Metadata Exchange (SDMX) Continue to improve the content and structure of the metadata and the tools available on the mdgs.un.org website The IAEG also recommended: To investigate the reasons for discrepancies between national and international data, and for data gaps To hold expert group meetings to establish strategies for dealing with data discrepancies and data gaps at the national and international levels. To provide technical assistance to countries in the use of international definitions. To improve the process of consultation by international agencies with countries before publishing their data. Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Improve transparency in the MDG Indicators Database Revised structure of metadata for MDG Indicators in the IAEG MDG Database CONTACT POINT in international agency DEFINITION METHODS OF COMPUTATION COMMENTS AND LIMITATIONS SOURCES OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GLOBAL AND NATIONAL FIGURES PROCESS OF OBTAINING DATA TREATMENT OF MISSING VALUES DATA AVAILABILITY REGIONAL AND GLOBAL ESTIMATES EXPECTED TIME OF RELEASE UNSD MDG database now presents more detailed metadata: details on methodology used to calculate indicators contacts for users to obtain additional information Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Outline Global monitoring and the work by the Inter-agency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators (IAEG) Compilation of international sources Improving international sources and resolving data gaps and discrepancies Next steps Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 Work of the IAEG The main objectives of the work of the group remain: Improving the effectiveness of capacity building activities Ensuring data quality and transparency, and reduce data gaps Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 Work of the IAEG Improving the effectiveness of capacity building activities The group brings together international agencies, regional commissions and representatives of national statistical systems to set priorities and identify ways to improve the delivery of capacity building programmes and promote the scaling-up of resources Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 Work of the IAEG Ensuring data quality and transparency Priority areas: Implement the recommendations by the friend of the Chair on MDG Indicators and those in the ECOSOC resolution Implement the recommendations by IAEG member countries in 2006 on coordination and reporting mechanisms (Survey to countries and agencies on coordination and reporting) Address some key methodological issues, including the use of population figures in the computation of the indicators and regional aggregates Continuing to improve the content and structure of the metadata and the tools available on the website SDMX task team to develop the data structure for MDG Indicators Revision of the handbook for country reporting Revision of the metadata on international series and upgrading of the database Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 Work of the IAEG Reducing data gaps The group has developed a plan to involve more extensively regional commissions in data checking purposes (discrepancies between national and international data series) and in channelling and following-up on specific queries on data and metadata between national statistical systems and international agencies The plan also involves identifying underlying causes for data gaps and make specific recommendations for improvement Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 Next steps Continue to develop the data structure for SDMX International agencies Countries Develop new methodologies for the assessment of progress Global and regional level Country level Continue the work to assist countries develop their system of coordination and reporting to the international statistical system Workshops and EGMs on coordination practices Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring THANK YOU Visit mdgs.un.org Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Beirut, Lebanon, 7-10 December 2010