The Development of Strategy

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Presentation transcript:

The Development of Strategy National National Security Goals Strategy Global Environment Technology (threats/opportunities)

“The Absolute Weapon” Bernard Brodie, The Absolute Weapon, 1946

First Nuclear Age, 1945-90s Bipolarity Deterrence Arms Control Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present Bipolarity balance Deterrence vulnerability Arms Control Managing rivalry Rationality Multipolarity asymmetry Deterrence missile defense Arms Control coercion Rationality

First Nuclear Age 1945-90s Bipolarity Deterrence Arms Control balance Deterrence vulnerability Arms Control Managing rivalry Rationality

1. Bipolarity An Arms Race US and USSR rough equality Balance of power Spiral theory US and USSR rough equality Balance of power Triad Bombers ICBMs SLBMs

Strategic Bombers

ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

SLBM – Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile

Launch Tube Hatches on USS Alabama

Two Arms Races by 1960s Offense-offense Offense-defense

Early ABM Systems Johnson Administration: “Sentinel”

2. Deterrence Strategies of Deterrence Warfighting Assured Destruction

1. Warfighting Deterrence = Ability to threaten Soviet military targets Ability to fight a nuclear war JFK: Flexible Response Nixon: Limited Nuclear Options: NSDM-242 Carter: Countervailing Strategy: PD-59 Reagan: Prevailing Strategy: NSDD-13

MIRVs Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicles

2. Assured Destruction Deterrence = Second Strike capability “Balance of Terror” Albert Wohlstetter, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 37, No. 2 (January 1959): 211-234

Soviet First Strike: Successful: USSR “wins” US Second strike US USSR

US Second Strike Capability Soviet First Strike US Second strike Scenario: Everyone Dies US USSR

US and Soviet Nuclear Arsenals ICBM SLBM Bombers launchers/warheads launchers/warheads launchers/warheads US Strategic Nuclear Forces 1950 462 330 1960 12 32 1515 3083 1970 1054 1244 656 1552 390 3339 1980 2144 512 5056 376 3568 1990 1000 2440 608 5312 267 4648 2000 550 432 3456 73 1376 2013 450 500 288 1152 60 300

US and Soviet Nuclear Arsenals USSR/Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces ICBM SLBM Bombers launchers/warheads launchers/warheads launchers/warheads 1956 40 120 1960 2 30 121 354 1970 1472 317 287 157 568 1980 1338 5362 990 1558 1990 1297 6857 908 2900 127 1402 2000 756 3540 348 1576 112 790 2013 326 1050 160 624 72 810

Sources: Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Nuclear Notebook Natural Resources defense Council Archive of Nuclear Data

3. Arms Control Management of the arms race Cut costs Increase predictability Increase transparency “Essential equivalence”

Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties Cold War Era SALT I Interim Agreement on Offensive Arms 1972 ABM Treaty 1972 SALT II Agreement 1979

Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties End of the Cold War Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) I 1991 START II 1993

Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties Post-Cold War Era Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 New START Treaty 2010

Critics of Arms Control Soviet ICBM Superiority? “Window of Vulnerability” US launchers warheads Soviet Titan 54 SS-17 108 432 Minuteman II 450 SS-18 308 3,080 Minuteman III 550 1,650 SS-19 330 1,980 Total 1,054 2,154 746 5,492

Solutions to Window of Vulnerability Nixon to Reagan 1. Mobile Missiles MX Multiple Protective Shelters system

Solutions to Window of Vulnerability Reagan to present 2. Missile Defense Reagan’s SDI speech, March 23, 1983

4. Rationality The logic of parity/equality The logic of deterrence The logic of management of the arms race STRATEGIC STABILITY