Interpretation of household indicators Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE 24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica

Overview of energy efficiency policies for households: case of Brazil Minimum levels of energy efficiency for compact fluorescent lamps Interministerial Ordinance N° Maximum levels of electricity consumption for refrigerators and freezers Interministerial Ordinance N° 362 Minimum levels of energy efficiency for gas stoves and ovens and air conditioners Interministerial Ordinance N° 363 and 364 PNE Minimum levels of energy efficiency for water gas heaters Interministerial Ordinance N° Interministerial Ordinance N° Schedule establishes minimum limits for incandescent lamps in order to ban them from the market Huge impact in the household sector! Changes Law % of the amount of PEEs must be allocated to low income energy efficiency projects Targets programs for compact fluorescent lamps Interministerial Ordinance N° Building labelling for household sector Targets programs for air conditioners, water heaters, gas stoves and ovens and refrigerators and freezers Interministerial Ordinance N° 323, 324, 325 and 326 PNEF – Portaria N° Source: MME/EPE, 2013

Outline 1.Global trends 2.Consumption by end-use 3.Diffusion of efficient equipment 4.Domestic electrical appliances

Contents 1.Global trends a.Trends in household consumption and main drivers (private consumption and number of households) Identification of homogenous periods (index) Variation by period (%/year) b.Specific energy consumption per household (or per dwelling): total (toe/household) and electricity(kWh per household) (trends with double vertical axis) c.Specific electricity consumption per household vs per electrified household (if relevant)

: Plano Real since 1993): increase in private consumption and energy crisis in 2001 (decrease in energy consumption, of which 20% for electricity) Private consumption increased faster than energy consumption. Household devices regulated by Energy Efficiency Law more available in market. Energy consumption trends, private consumption and number of households (1990=100, Brazil) Trends in main drivers of household energy consumption: Identification of homogeneous periods : case of Brazil

Trends in main drivers of household energy consumption: case of Brazil 6 Household energy consumption is growing moderately and much slower than household income (private consumption), especially since The electricity consumption is following the increase in private consumption. Steady demographic pressure (increasing number of households)~ 2,6% per year Trends in energy consumption, private consumption and number of households in Brazil (%/year)

7 Energy consumption decrease due to the fall in the firewood demand. Electricity consumption increase due to the growth of private consumption and a better income distribution. Specific energy consumption per household: case of Brazil Electricity crisis Source: Brazilian Energy Balance (BEN), EPE

Specific energy consumption per household: case of Chile

9 Per electrified household, the electricity consumption increases less rapidly than per household, due to households electrification: In Bolivia and Paraguay, the electricity consumption per electrified household actually decreased and the increase in the electricity consumption per household is due to electrification (from 68% to 77% in Bolivia and from 83% to 100 % in Paraguay). In Morocco, electrification explains 2/3 of the electricity consumption growth The right indicator to monitor energy efficiency is the electricity consumption per electrified household. Specific electricity per household: effect of electrification Specific electricity consumption per household: effect of electrification ( ) Bolivia:

Outline 1.Global trends 2.Consumption by end-use 3.Diffusion of efficient equipments 4.Domestic electrical appliances

Contents 2.Consumption by end-use a.Distribution of consumption by main end-use (space heating, cooking, water heating, air conditioning, electrical appliances and lighting; pie charts in 2000 and 2010) main end-uses; b.Specific consumption by main end-use (toe or kWh /dwelling) c.Specific consumption for cooking per dwelling: final and useful energy (histograms for 2000 and 2010) substitution effect d.Specific consumption for space heating (climate corrected if possible histograms for 2000 and 2010)

Distribution of energy consumption by end-use: Brazil Increasing share of electricity captive use, because an increase in household electricity equipment ownership. Decreasing in cooking consumption due to the participation of more efficient fuels (reduction in firewood consumption) and increased meals made outside the home. Source: BEN, EPE

Distribution of consumption by end-use: case of Chile (2010) Source: estudio Curva de conservación de la energía del sector residencial, 2010 (encuesta de cerca de 3200 hogares con una representatividad de 95%)

14 Stable consumption with a decreasing specific consumption for cooking and an increasing use of electricity. Households specific energy consumption by main end-use (Brazil) Source: EPE Specific energy consumption per household by end-use: Brazil

Specific consumption by end-use (toe/households) Household specific consumption by end-use: case of Argentina

Specific electricity consumption per household by end-use: Brazil 16 The growth of the specific electricity consumption per household is mainly linked to large electrical equipment such as refrigerators, TV, washing machines, air conditioning and others. Lighting and water heating follow a stable trend. Source: EPE Source: ODYSSEE

Household specific energy consumption by main end-use (2010) (Chile) Specific energy consumption per household by end-use: Chile

Specific energy consumption of households for cooking: Brazil 18 Medener Specific energy consumption for cooking is decreasing steadily because of substitution of biomass by LPG. Household specific energy consumption for cooking (toe/household) (Brazil)

Source: BIEE/EPE Over the period , substitution of LPG for biomass contributed to decrease the consumption per household by 0.8%/year Since 2000, this substitution trend reversed slightly and fuel substitutions contributed to slightly increase the consumption per household for cooking. Substitution effect = difference in variation of final and useful energy; useful energy calculated by multiplying final energy by end-use efficiency (5% efficiency for wood,; 45% for LPG) Specific energy consumption of households for cooking: effect of substitution : case of Brazil

Outline 1.Global trends 2.Consumption by end-use 3.Diffusion of efficient equipment 4.Domestic electrical appliances

Contents 3.Indicators of diffusion of efficient appliances : a.Diffusion of solar water heaters: i. annual surface of solar water heaters installed per year (m2) ii. % of households equipped* iii.production of solar heat** (ktoe/capita/ year) and energy saved b.Penetration of efficient lamps : i.Number of CFL per household ii.% of households with one CFL c.Penetration of efficient labels

745 GWh (avoided consumption) Solar water heater (SWH) equipment rates: Brazil 22 Source: Brazilian Association on Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Heating (ABRAVA) Diffusion of SWH during period from 1,3% to almost 4%; Increase of installed area from to m 2 / inhab. *% of households with SHW= total installed area in m2 divided by the average size of a solar panel per dwelling (e.g. 3 m2 /); avoided consumption= production of solar heat (calculated from the installed area of solar water heaters multiplied by the average solar output per m2).

Household CFL diffusion : case of Tunisia 23 Strong increase in the average number of CFL per household from 1 in 2007 to 2.7 in 2010; Source ANME (ratio parc installé chez les ménages sur nombre de ménages

Market share of label A and B for refrigerators (Chile ) Diffusion of efficient labels

Market share of label A and B for lamps (Chile) Diffusion of efficient labels

Outline 1.Global trends 2.Specific consumption by end-use 3.Diffusion of efficient equipments 4.Domestic electrical appliances

Content 4.Household electrical appliances a.Trends in household equipment ownership: 2000 and 2010 b.Distribution of electricity consumption by end-use/equipment (lighting, refrigerator, TV, etc…) (chart pies 2000 and 2010); c.Specific consumption by appliance; d.Decomposition of electricity consumption variation by equipment/end- use

Trends in household ownership of electrical appliances: case of Brazil 28 Source: EPE

Trends in household ownership of electrical appliances : case of Chile

Distribution of electricity consumption per household by appliance/end-use: Chile

Specific electricity consumption by type of appliance : Chile

Decomposition of the variation of the electricity consumption of appliances 32 The objective of the decomposition of the electricity consumption variation of a given appliance (e.g. refrigerators) between 2 years (e.g and 2010) is to measure the effect of 3 factors: Demographic effect : more households Equipment ownership effect : impact of the increase in the number of appliances Energy savings effect: influence of a decrease in the average specific consumption per appliance (kWh/year)

Decomposition of the variation of the electricity consumption of appliances : methodology 33 Appliance consumption E= HH*TEQ*SEC With: E consumption of the appliance HH: number of households TEQ: equipment ownership ratio (% of households with the appliance) SEC: average specific consumption of the appliance (kWh/year) Calculation of electricity consumption variation between year 0 and t Demographic effect =HH*TEQ 0 *SEC 0 Equipment ownership effect: HH 0 *TEQ*SEC 0 Energy savings effect: HH t *TEQ t *SEC E t - E 0 = sum of 3 effects

Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : example of TV 34 Unite Number of households % of households with TV% 82,394,7 Specific consumption of TVkWh Total consumption of TVGWh Consumption of TV variationGWh435 Effect of TV stock increaseGWh514 of which demographic effect309 of which equipement ownership effect205 Specific consumption effectGWh-79

35 The increased number of households contributed to raise the consumption by GWh (demographic effect ). Progression in the diffusion of the equipment contributed to a further GWh increase. However, the consumption of refrigerators only increased by GWh and not by GWh as energy savings contributed lower the consumption by GWh. Drivers of the electricity consumption variation for refrigerators in Brazil ( ) Source: EPE Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : case of refrigerators in Brazil

36 The equipment ownership was the main factor for the consumption increase; This happened due to demographic effect as well as the increase in income in the period, attending a part of the pent-up demand for air conditioners. Drivers of the electricity consumption variation for air conditioning in Brazil ( ) Source: EPE Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : case of air conditioning in Brazil