American Politics October 30, 2006

Advantages of Two Party System Stability Multi-party democracy said to be unstable Must form coalition governments Evidence is that coalition governments are less stable than single party government Illusion of Majority Rule Accountability “responsible party” thesis

Disadvantages with Having Only Two Parties Normative concerns (what is lost) Fairness Should 50% of participating voters make govt.? Should incumbent parties draw districts? Trust If voters are not aligned with major party, and their vote is “wasted” on a third party, will they trust government? Participation Why show up if vote will be wasted? US has one of the lowest rates of participation

How Could a Third US Party Form? Institutional Change Prospects slim for US Congress to act State Legislatures Citizen’s initiative Major split in existing party Rise of regional conflict

Voter Turnout U.S. turnout in comparative perspective Lower for congressional elections than Presidential elections Decline in voter turnout How low is it? Does it matter? The role of age and education

Turnout in Comparative Perspective See also Table 6.1, p.140

The U.S. in Comparative Perspective Source: Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), Module 2, 2004

The Decline in Turnout

Why the decline? Voting Rights Act removed barriers, ie. poll taxes, literacy tests, residency requirements Socioeconomic change—increasingly affluent society Change in political attitudes Party mobilization

Role of Age and Education

Why is voter turnout so low? Difficulty of registration Lack of convenience Early voting Absentee voting Vote by mail Voter Attitudes Electoral System Changing demographics

Why then would anyone vote? Voting is the most common form of political participation Many people also talk about politics and try to persuade others to vote Very few participate in any other specific way.

Presidential Nomination Process How do we end up with these two candidates? Selection process primaries and caucuses Importance of momentum

Who decides who the party nominee will be? In the past, party activists made the decision at the national convention Now (since the 1970s) voters decide through caucuses and primaries These contests determine how many delegates a candidate receives. The rules play a role in influencing what types of candidates will win

Caucus A meeting of candidate supporters A meeting of candidate supporters Democratic caucuses allow any registered Democratic to participate Republican caucuses are less open; some limit participation to party officials and workers Systems used include winner-take-all and PR

Primaries Elections to Decide Nominees Closed primaries Open primaries Elections to Decide Nominees Closed primaries Only party members can vote Open primaries Any registered voter can select a party’s primary and vote in it

Schedule of 2004 Primaries

Shorter Primaries

Iowa and NH can help the Underdog Underdogs (outsiders) have seen their support rise from an early win in Iowa and NH. Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent) Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent) Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent) Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent) McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)

Expectations in NH Source: NH Poll, American Research Group Source: NH Poll, American Research Group http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

Voters in New Hampshire

Impact of New Hampshire Primary

Front loading 70% of all delegates are chosen before the end of March 70% of all delegates are chosen before the end of March Benefits the front runner Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of the money before the nomination process Increases the importance of the “invisible primary”—the year prior to the official nomination season when candidates raise money

Why do early primaries play such a large role? Importance of momentum Those who are expected to win receive more news coverage and more contributions This makes it easier for front runners to win and more difficult for followers to catch up.

Consequences Carter was the only candidate to win the Iowa caucus and go on to win the nomination (prior to 2004) In every year since 1980 the front-running candidate who led in the last poll conducted before Iowa still ended up winning the nomination. Compact schedule (front loading) can kill the momentum from New Hampshire

Deck is stacked against outsiders, under dogs Half of the Republican delegates awarded after the first six weeks. News coverage and public interest fades shortly after the primary season begins

Example of the Consequences of Front-loading in 2000 1,034 delegates needed to win

Should Parties be Strengthened? Current system weakens political parties Voters have more say Strong parties would: Promote party discipline Provision of a clear choice Concentration of power in hands of winning party

How Can Parties be Strengthened? Reform primary system Closed primaries Campaign Finance Reform Allow soft money? Limit contributions from interest groups…

Review Nomination process Consequences of front-loading Party strength

Options for Electing the President Congress chooses the president State legislatures choose the president President elected by popular vote Electoral College

How it works Each state was allocated a number of Electors equal to the number of U.S. Senators (always 2) plus the number of U.S. Representatives (which changes) The manner of choosing the electors was left to the individual state legislators. By 1836 all states (except for South Carolina) choose electors by popular vote (plurality rules). The person with a majority of electoral votes is elected president In the event that no candidate wins a majority, the U.S. House of Representatives would choose from the top five contenders. Each state could cast only one vote. An absolute majority is required

Historical Curiosities 1800 Electors gave both Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr an equal number of votes. The tie was settled by the U.S. House. Prompted the 12th Amendment which requires separate vote for president and vice president (rather than two votes for president with the runner up as the vice president) 1824. No candidate receives a majority. House decides John Quincy Adams despite the fact that Andrew Jackson had obtained more electoral votes. 1888 Benjamin Harrison defeats Grover Cleveland who received more votes

Past Elections Link to maps of electoral college results (1960-1996)

2000 Presidential Election

2004 Presidential Election Bush 234 Kerry 207

A Perfect Tie?

2004 Presidential Election Results Bush 286 EV (51%)/ Kerry 252 EV (48%) 270 EV needed to win See results by state

Adjusting for State Population

Plurality Winners by County

Percentage of the vote for parties

The Florida Disaster Florida recount (link to Univ. of Chicago study) Florida recount (link to Univ. of Chicago study) The punch card voting system Design of the palm beach ballot

Unequal Representation Source: Robert A. Dahl, How Democratic is the American Constitution?

The Butterfly Ballot

Evidence of problems in Palm Beach

Reforming the Electoral College Winner take all (by Congressional District) Proportional Allocation of Electors by State Amendment 36 in Colorado Polls

Outcomes with Different Methods

Direct Election of the President Runoff Elections Alternative Vote/Preference Voting

Preference Voting System is used to elect that nation’s House of Representatives from single member districts. Voters rank their first most preferred candidate by marking a “1” their second most favored candidate with a “2” etc… Candidate with the fewest first choices is eliminated and the ballots for those people who voted for him are examined to see whom they placed second.

Example Candidate A Candidate B Candidate C First round 41 43 15 Second round 56 (41+15) eliminated

What would the outcome have been with Preference Voting