The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Beata Poteralska Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institute, Radom, Poland

APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Presentation plan Methodology of the determination of priority research directions and its application in the area of environmental technologies Building development scenarios Implementing the scenarios in the form of strategic programmes

Determining priority research directions and key technologies APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Determining priority research directions and key technologies Determination of priority research directions Generation of lists of priority advanced technologies Assessment of technological readiness Identification of qualifications and competences for the development of advanced technologies Design of characteristics of advanced technologies Development of technology maps Creation of scenarios of technological and social development Implementation of the scenarios in the form of the strategic programme

Determination of priority research directions and key technologies APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Determination of priority research directions and key technologies Research directions realised at strategic institutions National strategic research directions Strategic documents and directives of the European Union Determination of priority research directions Analysis of the state-of-the-art Expert analyses Emerging technologies Incremental technologies

Priority directions of environmental technologies APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Priority directions of environmental technologies Technologies of producing maintenance materials with increased maintenance values; Technologies for the rationalisation of the use of raw materials and resources; Technologies of waste recycling and utilisation; Low-waste technologies of manufacturing and regenerating machines and devices; Pro-ecological technologies of producing energy; Logistics systems for waste and energy management.

Design of characteristics of advanced technologies APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Design of characteristics of advanced technologies INTERNAL EXPERTS EXTERNAL EXPERTS SUBSTANTIAL WORK List of incremental technologies List of emerging technologies Incremental technologies characteristics form Emerging technologies characteristics form Design of technology characteristics forms METHODOLOGICAL WORK CONSULTATIONS Supplementation, modification, suggestions, etc. DATABASE Set of incremental and emerging technologies

Generation of lists of priority advanced technologies APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Generation of lists of priority advanced technologies EXPERT PANELS Technologies prioritisation List of priority technologies Criterion: Sustainable development Criterion: Critical nature of technology List of incremental technologies Economic effects Interdisciplinarity level of technology Ecological effects List of emerging technologies Social effects

Assessment of technological readiness APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Assessment of technological readiness EXPERT PANELS Assessment of technological readiness List of technologies with high level of technological readiness Assessment of technological readiness of particular research directions for commercial application

Demand for new occupations, qualifications and competences APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Identification of qualifications and competences for developing advanced technologies Diagnosis of formal and informal education of specialists in the field of advanced technologies Balance of qualifications and competences for specialists in the field of advanced technologies Demand for new occupations, qualifications and competences Scenarios of the demand for qualifications and competences in the field of advanced technologies Recommendations concerning the need to develop vocational qualification standards and modular curricula

Scenarios of technological and social development APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Scenarios of technological and social development SCENARIOS OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO Increasing tendency of key factors influencing R&D works High probability of the occurence of that tendency STABILISATION SCENARIO Constant tendency of factors at the high probability of the occurence of this tendency Increasing and decreasing tendencies of factors at the low probability of the occurence of these tendencies DECLINE SCENARIO Decreasing tendency of factors High probability of the occurence of that tendency

Scenarios of technological and social development APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Scenarios of technological and social development DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO STABILISATION SCENARIO TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT Constant tendency of factors at the high probability of the occurence of this tendency Increasing and decreasing tendencies of factors at the low probability of the occurence of these tendencies Average and low priority level of technologies High technological readiness level of technologies TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT Increasing tendency of key factors influencing R&D High probability of the occurence of that tendency High priority level of technologies High technological readiness level of technologies SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Qualifications and competences needed for the development of technologies indicated in the scenario of dynamic technological development SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Qualifications and competences needed for the development of technologies indicated in the stabilisation scenario of technological development

Scenarios development – environmental technologies APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Level of priority Scenarios development – environmental technologies Dynamic development scenario Decline scenario Stabilisation scenario – high priority technologies Stabilisation scenario – technologies with high level of technological readiness T3E T2E T4E T14I T1E T8I T10I T13I T3I T12I T11I T2I T6I T1I T9I T7I Environmental technologies T15I T4I T5I Technological readiness level T1I, T2I … – incremental technologies T1E, T2E … – emerging technologies

Scenarios development – environmental technologies APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Scenarios development – environmental technologies STABILISATION SCENARIO TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT Development of incremental solutions directed at the improvement of existing ones, e.g.: Technologies for the rationalisation of the use of materials and resources, including: waste recycling and utilisation technologies technologies of textile and thermoplastic polymer composites recycling application of membrane systems in recycling and utilisation technologies for aqueous operating fluids and sewage … SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Development of environmental technologies requires: specialised and interdisciplinary knowledge latest knowledge of chemistry, physics, material engineering, ecology, biotechnology and nanotechnology …

Implementation of the scenarios in the form of strategic programmes APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Implementation of the scenarios in the form of strategic programmes Strategic Programme „Innovative Systems of Technical Support for Sustainable Development of Economy” Sectoral foresight project Stabilisation scenarios (incremental technologies) Strategic Programme „Advanced Technologies of the Future for Sustainable Development” Dynamic development scenario (emerging technologies)

APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE Conclusions The methodology designed, enables the determination of priority research areas of technical support for the sustainable development of the economy Great importance of pro-ecological technologies’ development and implementation generates the need to determine priority research areas in this field Research in the determined areas is executed in practice in the strategic research programmes financed from European or national funds An example of a strategic programme, whose subject matter was generated with the use of the methodology developed is „Innovative Systems of Technical Support for Sustainable Development of Economy”

Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institute APPLICATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS OF THE FUTURE THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Beata Poteralska Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institute Pulaskiego 6/10 26-600 RADOM POLAND Beata.Poteralska@itee.radom.pl