1. Frank Glod, Carlo Duprel, and Michael Keenan*
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006
LUXEMBOURG FORESIGHT: A ‘STANDARD’ EXERCISE IN A ‘PECULIAR’ CONTEXT?
Frank Glod, Carlo Duprel, and Michael Keenan*
Fonds National de la Recherche, Luxembourg
*PREST, University of Manchester

2. The Luxembourg Context
Total Surface: 2’586 km2
Inhabitants: 455’000 (39% non-Luxembourg)
Multilingual Population: Luxembourgish, French, German, English
GDP per capita: 56’600 EUR in 2005:
162 Banks, 366 insurance companies
ARCELOR, CLT-UFA, SES-GLOBAL,
Ceratizit, GoodYear, DuPont, Delphi,
Teijin, TDK, Fanuc, … (2000 researchers)
Amazon, AOL, Microsoft
Public research Budget:
1999: ~15M€ (0.08 % of GDP)
2005: ~50M€ (0.35 % of GDP)
2009 : ~180M€ (~0.66% of GDP)
1 University (2000),
4 Public research centres, several other research institutions (500 persons)
'OECD’ reform and City of Science

3. Current issues Issue Points to be addressed by F.
Improve Gouvernance (Performance contracts)
Highlight priority areas for public investment
Substitution of Sovereignty niches by competence niches
Identify possible areas of interests
Improve coordination between STI actors
Aid dialogue
Clarification of role of actors
Identify means of support in priority areas
Development of City of Science
Inform on existing competence ‘clusters’
Building capacity and absorption of budget increase
Highlight priority areas, capacity gaps and implementation issues

4. Objective of the Exercise
New FNR programmes
Identification of research domains in the public sector with socio-economic interest for Luxembourg
2 classes of priority
Class 1: top national (3-5) priorities, heavily increased funding
Class 2: slightly increased funding
Funding at constant level for existing activities
Scientific and political rationale for this choice of priorities
Proposal of set of priorities to government in march 2007
Clarification and dissemination of strategic aim of FNR programmes among stakeholders
Consolidation of communication networks amongst stakeholders

5. Phase 1 Internet Forum Interviews Diagnosis 60 major stakeholders
FNR Programme Evaluation
Building Strategic Scenarios
Background data report
Strategy Building
Questionnaires
> 30% response rate
Priorities Building
Mapping R&D in Luxembourg
Exploratory Workshop
FNR Board and Sci. Council meeting
Data collection
(General lack of data)
Trends at international level
Data analysis
Phase 2
Priorities/Recommendations to the Ministries
Young researchers workshop
FNR programmes

6. Phase 2
Develop thematic recommendations of the Foresight Phase I into classified priorities
1 stakeholder meeting to discuss the Lisbon objective
2 meetings of expert panel (20 stakeholders national/internat. public/user/private) for each field:
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Social sciences and Humanities
Law, Economy and Finance
Environmental Sciences
Life Sciences
ICT
09/06
10/06
11/06
12/06
01/07
03/07
02/07
Launch/
S-WS
WS_1
WS_2
Interim Report
Final Report
Input
Papers

7. Conclusion Overall positive response to initiative
Time constraint, goal oriented approach socialisation process neglected
FNR mandated to conduct exercise although limited authority
Focus on current issues, future-orientated thinking came short
Expected results obtained
Foresight seen as priority setting tool
Confusion at level of objective: FNR programmes and/or National priorities?
Pre-determinate Paths through parallel activities: STI reform and the City of Science

8. Particuliarities
Small environment allowed almost exhaustive involvement of major stakeholders
Limited baseline data available, Need for baseline apparent
Data from rapidly changing/young environment difficult
Parochial concerns and biases prevail
The Foresight characterised by an immediate implementation into FNR programmes and Gouvernmental programme (STI reform)
Unique position of allocating ‘new money’ and no immediate budgets cuts are to be expected
Expansion to new promising areas for Luxembourg