Turbulence Diagnoses and Forecasts Bob Sharman NCAR/RAL Weather in the Cockpit Workshop 8 August 2006

FAA AWRP Turbulence PDT work areas Develop/implement in situ turbulence observations UAL, SWA, Delta Develop/implement remotely sensed turbulence observations NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA) Develop turbulence nowcasting and forecasting systems Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) GTGN All products can be uplinked to the cockpit

In situ turbulence measurement and reporting program Goal: To augment/replace subjective PIREPs with objective and precise turbulence measurements Features: Automatically computes atmospheric turbulence intensities Aircraft independent (eddy dissipation rate, EDR) Automatically downloads data periodically during flight using ACARS network Can convert EDR to aircraft loads and vice versa given information about aircraft Adopted as ICAO Standard

UAL in-situ compared to pireps

NEXRAD in-cloud turbulence detection algorithm (NTDA) Graphic courtesy of virtualskies.arc.nasa.gov Cockpit display or radioed alert Dispatch, ATC, etc. TPAWS EDR In-cloud edr display NEXRAD or TDWR

NTDA status Ongoing verification against in situ data EXP TURB FI UAL███████████ -- 20 Oct 2005 22:08:57Z FL 360 orient. 95 deg 'X'=aircraft, '+'=waypoint, '*'=route ' '=no_data, 'o'=smooth, 'l'=light 'M'=mod, 'S'=severe ---------(36nm to COWES)--------------- llll l*MMMMMMll 112nm lll ll*llMMMMlll llM*MMMMMMMl 108nm llM*MMlMMMMM llM*MMlllMM 104nm lMM*llll Ml*l 100nm l**l ll ol l*ll 096nm llllllllll*lll llllllllllll*ll 092nm llllllllllll*ll l llllllllll l*ll llllllll 088nm lllllMllMMlll*l lllllllll lllMMMMMMll * lllllllllll 084nm llllMMMMMMM ** llllllllllllll lllllMMMMMMl *llllllllllllllll 080nm llllllMMMMM *llllllllllllllll llllMMlMMM l*lllllllllllllll 076nm ollMMMlll l l*lllllllllllllll ollMMMllllllM*llll lllllll +STL llllllllllMMl+lll lllllll ll lll Mll*lll llllll 068nm ll llllllMMll*lllM llllll lll lllllllll*llMM llllll 064nm lll llllllll*llMM llllll l ll llllllll*lMMM lllMll 060nm lll llllllllllM*MMM lllMMMl ll lllllllMMlM*M MMllMMMM 056nm Ml llllllMMlM*M MlMMMMMM M l llllllMMlM*Ml MMMMMMMMM 052nm l lllllllllllM*MlllMMMMMMMMMMM lll lllllllllllMM*MllMMMMMMMMMMMM 048nm lll lll ollllllMM*MllMMMSSMMMMMMM llM llloollllllll*llllMMSSMMMMMMM 044nm llMMMlllollllllll*llllMMMSSMMMMMM llMMM llll lllll*llllMMMMMMMlMMM 040nm M lllllllllll*lllllMMMMMllMMM lllMMlllllll*llllllMMMlllllM 036nm MMllMMll ll*llllllllllllllM MMMlMMll lll*lllllllllll 032nm MMMllllll ool*l lll llll MMMlllllllol*l l 028nm MMMllllllMMl* lMMlll MMl* 024nm M M * M * 020nm MMll * Mlllll ** MMM +WELTS llll + llMMM lll * llMMM 012nm ll * llMM * 008nm * 004nm * valid ----------------X---------------- 2205Z -40nm (39.0N, 92.1W) +40nm Ongoing verification against in situ data Web-based display of NTDA product Successful demonstration last summer of NTDA text graphic uplink to selected UAL aircraft with character printer severe In situ edr tracks NTDA edr contours SFO-BWI 20 Oct 05

NTDA turbulence display /EXPERIMENTAL TURBULENCE FI UAL███/AN N███UA UPLINK -- 01 Jul 2006 22:08:10Z FL 360 orient. 88 deg '+'=waypoint, '*'=route, 'X'=aircraft at 43.2N, 86.3W ' '=no_data, 'o'=smooth, 'l'=light, 'M'=mod, 'S'=severe ---------------------------(25 to EJOYS)------------------ ll | * lll | * lll | lllll* lll l | ollll* lll M | oolll*l lll | llll * lll +MONEE llllllll + lll l | ll llllll * lll l | llll lllllll*ll lll l | oll lllllllll*ll lll l | ool lllllllll * lll | lllllll * lll | llllll * lll l | llllllll * lll l | olllllllll * lll l | ooo lllllll * Mll | o lllllll * lll | lllll * lll | lloo * lol | * llo | * lll | * lll l | ll * lll l | lll * lll l +GRUBB lll + lll |040 ll * ll | * | * -------|---------valid----------X------------------------- -90 +90|Left 40 2205Z (86 from BAE) Right 40 NTDA turbulence display at 2210 UTC Radar at ~2215 UTC (deviation began at 2213) NTDA uplink message at 2208 UTC View toward left at about 2215 UTC

TPDT forecasting Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) forecast product Combines many turbulence indicators + observations Rapid updates 4D gridded output ADDS displays GTG2 early 2007 GTG3 early 2010 GTG1 GTG2 GTG4 GTG3 GTG5

Turbulence nowcasting - GTGN 0-1 hr forecast Real-time pireps Lightning Real-time in situ data NTDA Real-time ACARS winds/temp Wind profilers 3D data cube of observed/inferred turbulence updated every few minutes Satellite features Metars

Global GTG (TFO) Uses NOAA’s GFS model Diagnoses and forecasts of CAT > FL200 Experimental product should be available by early 2008 Example: Upper: RUC20 Lower: GFS

07/06/2005 CIT (>FL200 in situ)

Summary Enhanced situational awareness for tactical decisions about turbulence avoidance can be provided through uplinks to the cockpit In situ + pireps NTDA AVAILABLE NOW! GTG GTGN (~ 5-10 min update) In-flight strategic planning can use GTG or TFO Updated consistent with WRF, GFS forecast cycles Probabilistic forecasts

Demos…