1. Current and Forecast Icing
Marcia K. Politovich and Ben Bernstein
IFIPDT Lead and Alternate
NCAR
Weather In The Cockpit Workshop
8 August 2006
Boulder, CO

2. We produce a gridded product. Others determine display formats.
What we do here at NCAR
Product development
Scientific research on cloud processes, model parameterization and remote sensing
Algorithm development and testing
Verification (QA PDT and RAL verification team)
Software engineering
Display development (ADDS team)
Output in form of gridded files
GRIB format
NEW: Icing probability, severity, SLD potential
OLD: Icing and SLD potential, (severity for experimental version)
We produce a gridded product. Others determine display formats.

3. Development path
Run algorithms at NCAR with grids on local server, web displays for internal and “friendly” use
Changes made quickly as deficiencies are noted
Outside viewing limited – some special formats for special users (such as SkyWest for concept evaluation)
Run algorithms at NCAR with grids on local server, displayed on Experimental ADDS
Changes can be made if necessary, typically restricted to bug fixes and tested upgrades
Anyone can view but product use restrictions apply
Run algorithms at AWC with grids on NOAAPort, displayed on Operational ADDS
Changes go through approval process, transfer to AWC machines, etc.
Anyone can view – some restrictions for use

4. Concept and datasets CIP concept Input Datasets
No single model or sensor tells us what we need to know about the icing situation
Different datasets have something to offer
Apply information depending on weather situation
Fuzzy logic plus decision tree
Input Datasets
Confined to operational data
RUC, GOES, NEXRAD mosaic, METARs, PIREPs, lightning
Test new data sources offline
NASA LaRC GOES products, TAMDAR in
out 6

5. CONUS products Current Icing Product (CIP)
Hourly diagnosis of icing
Icing Potential – Operational product
“potential” is uncalibrated probability of encounter
Severity (categorical) - experimental now, operational 12/06
Trace, light, moderate, heavy
Probability replaces Icing Potential
SLD - Operational product
Forecast Icing Product (FIP)
Forecasts of icing for +2, 3, 6, 9, 12 h
Updated hourly (2, 3, 6h) and 3-hourly (9, 12h)
Icing Severity - experimental now, operational 8/08
Will include probability instead of potential
SLD - same schedule

6. CIP flight level plot

7. Alaska Products Forecast Icing Product (FIP-AK)
Forecasts of icing for +3, 6, 9, 12, 18 h
Updated every 6 hours now (improves to 1-3 hourly by FY09)
Icing Severity - Operational FY09
Will include probability
SLD Potential - Experimental now, Operational FY09
Current Icing Product (CIP-AK)
Hourly diagnosis of icing
Icing Probability - Operational FY10
Replaces Icing Potential - Experimental now
Severity - Operational FY10
SLD Potential - Experimental now, Operational FY10

8. CIP-AK flight level plots

9. Live and in person! CIP-Severity product on Experimental ADDS