Global Livestock Development with Special Focus on Latin America PANVET Buenos Aires, 2004 Samuel Jutzi

Global Livestock Development with Special Focus on Latin America PANVET Buenos Aires, 2004 Samuel Jutzi

Outline World human populations and agricultural resources World livestock production and productivity Consumption of livestock products and trade position of LA&C Projections Predicted demand growth in LA&C Predicted output growth in LA&C Future trade in livestock products Expected impacts Outline

World Human Population 2002 Source: FAOSTAT Million Global total: 6.2 billion World Human Population 2002

Proportion Population in Agriculture Source: FAOSTAT Percent Proportion Population in Agriculture

World Agricultural Area 2002 Million ha Global total: 5.0 billion ha World Agricultural Area 2002

Land per Person in Agriculture 2002 Source: FAOSTAT Hectare/person in agriculture Land per Person in Agriculture 2002

World Ruminant Populations 2002 Source: FAOSTAT Cattle & Buffalo Sheep & Goats Million Head World Ruminant Populations 2002

World Ruminant Populations 2002 Source: FAOSTAT Cattle & Buffalo Sheep & Goats Global total: 1.5 billion Global total: 1.8 billion World Ruminant Populations 2002

Global Cattle and Buffalo Distributions

World Pig and Poultry Populations 2002 Source: FAOSTAT Pigs Poultry Million Head Billion Head World Pig and Poultry Populations 2002

World Pig and Poultry Populations 2002 Source: FAOSTAT Pigs Poultry Global total: 0.9 billion Global total: 18 billion World Pig and Poultry Populations 2002

LSUs per 100 Persons in Agriculture Source: GLiPHA LSUs per 100 Persons in Agriculture

Farming/Livestock Systems Industrialized Countries: very labour saving, very capital intensive - large scale dairy, industrial monogastrics, ranching, feed lots SSA, SA, SEA: labour intensive, land saving or scavenging – small scale dairy, pastoral, landless & backyard mono-gastrics NA/NE & LAC: labour saving, capital intensive – majority of livestock - labour intensive, land saving or scavenging – majority of holdings Farming/Livestock Systems

World Meat Production (2001/03) Source: FAOSTAT Million MTs World Meat Production (2001/03)

World Milk & Egg Production (2001/03) Source: FAOSTAT Million MTs Million MTs Eggs Milk World Milk & Egg Production (2001/03)

Meat Performance Indicator: Carcass Weight Source: FAOSTAT Kg/animal Meat Performance Indicator: Carcass Weight

Egg & Milk Performance Indicators Source: FAOSTAT Kg/animal/year Kg/animal/year Milk Eggs Egg & Milk Performance Indicators

Cost of Beef Production 2001 US-$ / 100 kg CW Range: Cost of beef production only, ‘ typical‘ farms, 2001 Deblitz et al., IFCN Beef Report 2002 Cost of Beef Production 2001

Cost of Milk Production 2002 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 US-$ / 100 kg milk ECM Range: Cost of milk production only, ‘ typical‘ farms, 2002 Switzerland Norway Canada USA EU-15 EU-Cand. India Pakistan Argentina Brazil Australia New Zealand Bangladesh World market price level Hemme et al., IFCN Dairy Report 2003 Cost of Milk Production 2002

LA&C Per Capita Meat Consumption Source: FAOSTAT Kg/person/year LA&C Per Capita Meat Consumption

LA&C Per Capita Egg & Milk Consumption Source: FAOSTAT Eggs Milk Kg/person/year LA&C Per Capita Egg & Milk Consumption

LA&C Total Consumption of Meat, Milk & Eggs Source: FAOSTAT Million MTs Million MTs Eggs Meat Million MTs Milk LA&C Total Consumption of Meat, Milk & Eggs

LA&C Net Meat Trade Balance by Volume Source: FAOSTAT 1,000 MT LA&C Net Meat Trade Balance by Volume

LA&C Net Meat Trade Balance by Value Source: FAOSTAT Million USD LA&C Net Meat Trade Balance by Value

LA&C Net Dairy Trade by Volume and Value Source: FAOSTAT Volumes Values Million MT Billion USD LA&C Net Dairy Trade by Volume and Value

LA&C Projected Increases in Demand for LPs Source: FAO 2002 Million MT Eggs Meat Million MT Milk Million MT LA&C Projected Increases in Demand for LPs

LA&C Projected Increases in Livestock Numbers Source: FAO 2002 Million head Million birds LA&C Projected Increases in Livestock Numbers

LA&C Projected Increases in Carcass Weights Source: FAO 2002 Relative Increases Absolute Increases % kg LA&C Projected Increases in Carcass Weights

LA&C Projected Increases in Production of LPs Source: FAO 2002 Million MT Eggs Meat Million MT Milk Million MT LA&C Projected Increases in Production of LPs

Projected Net Trade in Meat (thousand MTs) Source: FAO 2002 2015: -1,900 2030: -1,090 European Union (15) Transition Countries North America 2015: -2,950 2030: -4,000 2015: -2,360 2030: -3,520 Near East / North Africa South Asia East Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 2015: -280 2030: -740 2015: 1,770 2030: 2,770 2015: -80 2030: -410 Industrial Countries 2015: 7,930 2030: 9,920 Latin America Oceania 85 Net Export -24 Net Import Projected Net Trade in Meat (thousand MTs)

Projected Net Trade in Milk (thousand MTs) Source: FAO 2002 2015: 3,500 2030: 5,200 European Union (15) Transition Countries North America 2015: -9,550 2030: -13,000 2015: - 8,900 2030: -12,500 Near East / North Africa East Asia South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 2015: -6,350 2030: -6,700 2015: -3,600 2030: -5,200 2015: -1,200 2030: -1,500 Latin America Industrial Countries 2015: 28,000 2030: 35,700 Oceania 85 Net Export -24 Net Import Projected Net Trade in Milk (thousand MTs)

Projected Net Trade in Grains (million MTs) Source: FAO 2002 2015: 10 2030: 25 European Union (15) Transition Countries North America 2015: -53 2030: -73 2015: - 85 2030: -116 Near East / North Africa East Asia South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 2015: -16 2030: -13 2015: -25 2030: -40 2015: -12 2030: -22 Latin America Industrial Countries 2015: 187 2030: 247 Oceania 85 Net Export -24 Net Import Projected Net Trade in Grains (million MTs)

Expected Impacts

The End Visit us at: www.fao.org/ag/aga.html Animal Production and Health Division | Samuel Jutzi