Risk Mapping, Assessment and Planning (Risk MAP) Assisting Imminently-Threatened Alaska Native Villages Sally Russell Cox, Alaska Division of Community and Regional Affairs Bureau of Indian Affairs Provider’s Conference November 30, 2017

Adaptation Responses to Climate-Related Hazards Protection-in-Place Shoreline protection measures and other controls to prevent/minimize the effects of coastal or riverine threats Allow the community to remain in its current location Migration Gradually moving property and development away from hazard-prone areas Community must have suitable, developable land nearby Relocation Moving entire community to entirely different location not vulnerable to natural hazards Usually considered only after determination that other methods of dealing with hazard threats would not be feasible In Alaska, there’s been a lot of discussion over the past decade about adaptation responses to climate . During the days of the Alaska Climate Change Subcabinet and the Immediate Action Work Group, three basic adaptation responses were identified that are listed on this slide. But a big issue has and continues to be: how can communities become informed to make decisions about how to respond? While they are keenly aware that change is happening, most don't have enough information to make decisions about how to best respond. I think Risk MAP can help imperiled communities begin this decision-making process.

Community Adaptation Decision-Making Needs Assistance to imperiled communities should be based on fair and defensible methodology which prioritizes communities by level of threat and need Community must be key player in decision-making process Imperiled communities (and agencies assisting them) need quantifiable data from which to make informed decisions A coordinated, interdisciplinary approach to address community threats is essential to increasing community resilience These are some common needs and threads I’ve gathered from efforts over the past decade that I think Risk MAP can address: Assistance to imperiled communities should be based on a fair and defensible methodology The community must be a key player in the process Imperiled communities (and the agencies assisting them) need quantifiable data from which to make informed decisions A coordinated, interdisciplinary approach to address community threats is essential to increasing community resilience

Goals and Products Increased Community Resilience Quality Data + Risk Assessment Tools Community Decisions + Actions to Reduce Risk Community Understanding of Risk Increased Community Resilience Goals Products Understandable maps Credible data Usable risk assessments Tools to understand how hazard risk has changes Local understanding of hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities Community identifies strategies for risk reduction Integration of risk assessment information into community planning; development Seek funding; implement mitigation & adaptation projects

Prioritization Takes place before communities are selected for Risk MAP studies. States are asked to develop quantitative approach to prioritize communities to determine which communities FEMA will study. Develop list of imperiled communities based on 2009 Government Accountability Office (GAO) list of 31 Imminently-Threatened Communities Use Denali Commission's Statewide Threat Assessment Project to develop Alaska Risk MAP prioritization methodology. Draft prioritization matrix presented to stakeholders at Bureau of Indian Affairs’ Providers Conference held in Anchorage in December 2017. Referring back to the point that assistance to imperiled communities should be based on fair and defensible methodology which prioritizes communities by level of threat and need: FEMA asks States to develop a methodology to prioritize watersheds to determine which watersheds and communities they will study each year. I believe we can develop an approach to prioritize imminently-threatened communities based on level of threat and need. This is important because we don’t want to place communities in a situation where they’re competing against each other for funding based on grant-writing skills, yet we need a fair and defensible process to determine who we will assist and in what order. The Denali Commission has recently contracted with the Corps of Engineers and University of Alaska Fairbanks to develop to develop a normalized, aggregate risk index for erosion, flooding and permafrost degradation when considered together. The entire effort won’t be done for another year, however we’re hopeful that there will be enough information to inform a draft prioritization matrix that we can share with stakeholders in December during the BIA Providers Conference.

Risk Assessment + Analysis Process Discovery Risk Assessment + Analysis Risk Reduction Resilience Identification of community needs Collection of new/available data Summarize in Discovery Report Conduct risk and vulnerability assessments Analyze results and document in Risk Report for community Share results of risk assessments + draft Risk Report with community Identify strategies for risk reduction Integrate Risk MAP information into local plans Seek funding + implement mitigation/adaptation projects

Stakeholder Engagement Partnership and collaboration are critical to the Risk MAP process. Important because FEMA doesn’t directly address many of the hazards (or other resilience needs) impacting Alaska Native villages: Erosion Permafrost Degradation Food security Human health impacts Changing weather conditions Community capacity Establishing these relationships with the community during Risk MAP process can lead to formation of interagency working groups (village planning groups) for later efforts Risk MAP is based on partnerships and collaboration, which I've found is especially important to addressing the needs of imperiled communities. For Risk MAP, this means partnering with other agencies and organizations to study some of the hazards that FEMA doesn’t address. But it also sets the stage for participants in future interagency working groups that can work with the community for future resiliency or even future relocation planning.

Discovery Discovery is the first part of the Risk MAP process when the State, FEMA, community and other stakeholders work together to collect data regarding local hazard risks. Discovery Interview Teleconference with stakeholders to share current information, current and past projects, historical knowledge, and to identify who should attend Discovery meeting in community Discovery Meeting Meeting held to gather information on community’s perspective about local natural hazards and risk. Information used to prioritize risk, vulnerability assessments and mitigation planning assistance So I’m going to quickly run through the steps of the Risk MAP process and touch on ways that we would modify the process to meet the needs of Alaska Native villages. Discovery is the first part of the Risk MAP process, the information-gathering stage where we work closely with the community to understand the local hazards and what areas the community would like studied. This is also the time when we reach out to various experts to collaborate on those desired study areas.

Discovery Risk MAP Discovery approach modified for Alaska Native villages: Interpreter for meetings in villages where English is the second language Meeting format in keeping with local ways to present information Community gathering/potluck Reports translated into Native Language and presented in useful format to community This slide shows some of the ways we could make the Discovery process useful and meaningful to the community: Some examples are: Engaging an interpreter in communities where English is not the first language Holding meetings in a culturally appropriate way – such as through community gatherings and potlucks Presenting Discovery information in Native language and in a format that is useful to the community – one example is a poster that can be placed in a public place where people can gather around it and discuss it. I’ve created a mock-up of what a Discovery Report might look like.

Post-Discovery Data Collection and Analysis A collaborative effort between a number of stakeholders in order to meet community’s resilience needs: Incorporate local/traditional knowledge with science Incorporate local observation as part of the process. A number of community-based monitoring efforts are taking place in Alaska; see: http://www.aoos.org/alaska-community-based-monitoring/what-are-we-observing/ The Data Collection and Analysis Phase would extend from before Discover to after and incorporate local knowledge as well as utilize information captured form local observers. There are a number of established community-base monitoring Efforts in the state. The Alaska Ocean Observing System maintains a webpage listing many of these efforts, and we could reach out to these groups to try to collaborate.

Risk MAP Products and Tools Risk Report informs communities of risks related to natural hazards, and enables communities to act to reduce their risk Can be used to update local plans and regulations, communicate risk, inform the modification of development standards, identify mitigation projects, and ultimately take action to reduce risk Collaboration with other agencies could produce the following tools: Flood inundation maps (USGS, DGGS) Erosion Risk Assessment The Risk Report, the final report in the Risk MAP process, informs communities of their risks related to natural hazards, and enables communities to act to reduce their risk. Information from the Risk Report can be used to inform a variety of future efforts, and ultimately help the community make decisions to take action to reduce risk. Again, a supplement to the Risk Report could be be developed just for the community and I’ve created a mock-up here.. Other tools could be developed through collaboration with other agencies such as: Flood inundation maps (USGS, DGGS) Erosion Risk Assessment

Resilience Meeting Provides community with opportunity to meet with subject matter experts to discuss how Risk MAP information, tools and products can inform future planning efforts, reduce risk, and increase local resistance to disaster Decision on next-steps to implement resilience actions is key to this meeting Meeting format in keeping with local ways to present information Community gathering/potluck Reports translated into Native Language and presented in useful format to community The Resilience Meeting provides the community with the opportunity to meet with subject matter experts to discuss how the tools and information of the Risk MAP process can be used to inform local decision-making and future resilience efforts. A decision on next-steps to implement resilience actions is key to this meeting. As with the Discovery Meeting, it may be necessary to have an interpreter and to hold the meeting in a community gathering/potluck format. Use of visuals outlining next steps (that can be left in the community) are helpful.

Next Steps Risk MAP Tools and Products can inform/lead to: Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Climate Adaptation Plan Mitigation/Adaptation Projects Local Land Use Plan Community Comprehensive Plan Protect-in-Place/Relocation Analysis Village Planning Group There are a number of future efforts that the Risk MAP process can inform. Informing the update of the local Hazard Mitigation Plan and identifying future mitigation projects are one way, but the process can provide the community with the information needed to develop a longer-term adaptation plan or to evaluate the need to relocate versus protecting-in-place. And the partnership and collaboration that’s developed during the Risk MAP process sets the stage for forming interagency working groups that can continue to assist the community with its decision-making needs.