P REDICTING EFFECTS ON W ATER P RODUCTIVITY AND THE W ATER B ALANCE DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR:

Workshop Objectives  Review available assessments of present and future water availability and use at the watershed and basin-scale and identify scope for updates to reflect the full potential of improvements in on-farm land and water management > Inform regional decision-makers and other key stakeholders at the benchmark sites of the relevance and potential further use of outputs from decision support tools to evaluate options for improved management of land, water and livelihoods > Stimulate knowledge exchange and research collaboration amongst WLI research teams using and developing tools to support integrated water and land-use strategies with key stakeholders

Results Anticipated Outputs > Enhanced Annual Reports, Country Research Reports and PPTs from 8 countries and regional team > Short workshop report including list of participants > Materials online for other interested researchers to benefit from Outcomes > WLI thematic research group on decision support tools and models activated > WLI thematic research group on water use efficiency activated > Improved connection of WLI pilot testing to strategic level decision-making and improved outscaling strategies for integrated land and water management > Improved management of land, water and livelihoods in WLI countries

1. ….WHAT IS A LIVELIHOOD? (see Workshop Report on WLI Website) 2. WHAT IS AN IMPROVED LIVELIHOOD? 3. HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO IMPROVE RURAL LIVELIHOODS? 4. HOW WILL WE KNOW THAT IT IMPROVED? 5. HOW WILL WE KNOW THAT THE IMPROVEMENT RESULTED FROM THE WLI PILOT TESTING ACTIVITY?

PREDICTING FUTURE WATER PRODUCTIVITY: Remaining Challenges Scale challenge Diversity of land and water conditions and qualities Diversity of cropping patterns Integrating crops and livestock Other uses of water Water reuse Definition and measurement of water consumption (Economic aspects, prices, future uncertainties) Use GIS to address Use Crop Syst to address Use GIS and SaltMod to address Work with economists to capture Work with farmers to identify Define our approach (refer to FAO 66 ?)

A SSESSMENTS OF W ATER B ALANCE Remaining Challenges Integration of WLI data elements Scale challenges Temporal challenges for prediction of future water availability Uncertainty, variability Data access (real and perceived) Inter-sectoral cooperation Some water sources less well understood –i.e. groundwater, reusable wastewater Assess state of knowledge & gaps Scale down from national water balance assessments to address Scale down from climate change assessments to address assessments to address Use statistical techniques to fill gaps and account for Refer to existing applications of WEAP, enhance and contribute Use SWAT to deepen understanding of complex processes in soil and water

K EY T OPICS FOR R EGIONAL K NOWLEDGE E XCHANGE Challenge Reaching decision-makers Modeling climatic effects in cropping systems including trees (global climatic changes & regulation of the microclimate for improved soil and crop productivity) Modeling surface-groundwater interactions in rainfed and irrigated agroecosystems Assessing water productivity in integrated crop and livestock systems Decision Support Tools WEAP AquaCrop and Crop Syst SWAT CEH Wallingford & Economic models

with impr. mgt Cropping Pattern Ha cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock: Annual Water Use m 3 / yr Gross Margin/m 3 $/ m 3 /yr Cropping Pattern Ha cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock: Annual Water Use m 3 /yr Gross Margin/m 3 $/ m3/yr Cropping Pattern Ha cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock: Annual Water Use m 3 /yr Gross Margin/m 3 $/ m3/yr Present w.out impr. mgt Water Balance reuse groundwater Surface inflows rainfed Future Management Strategies Benchmark Site

W ORKSHOP P URPOSE : To identify scope for available watershed and basin-scale water balance assessments to include scenarios demonstrating improvements in integrated management of land, water and livelihoods to be achieved through upscaling of WLI pilot-tested strategies and technologies

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