of Land and Natural Resource Conflict Sequencing activities in complex integrated conflict-sensitive programming Presenter: Jay Singh Treasure, Turf and Turmoil: The Dirty Dynamics of Land and Natural Resource Conflict June 2011

What is sequencing? Getting started in program or activity design Identifying outcomes desired Considering initial interventions that are feasible and mutually reinforcing Ordering interventions so that necessary conditions are in place for interventions to succeed There is no blueprint for success: every context, and every program is different, and conditions change However by following a logical process we can identify the most effective sequences Note: Multiple interventions are typically undertaken simultaneously

Sequencing steps Use assessments and conceptual model to visualize relationships among factors Identify broad outcomes desired, specific localities and populations Consider entry points Flag enabling conditions As an iterative (responsive/participatory) process, develop more specific interventions

Questions to guide sequencing Governance Gaps: Are there important institutional/technical gaps or weaknesses? Are there critical legal and/or policy needs? Operational/Technical Gaps: Are there informational barriers? Transparency, evidence, common definitions/constructs… What are the human and structural capacity gaps? Special Considerations: How do issues sort across time: immediate, near, medium and long-term? What are the flash points (actual and latent)? What are the Agency comparative/strategic advantages and limitations: legitimacy, know-how, resources?

What are enabling conditions? Formal and informal policies, regulations Institutional capacity and social capital Market variables Socio-political stability Link specific actions that address proximate drivers/threats/conflicts to strategies for addressing enabling conditions Brainstorming and other non-linear and open-ended approaches Conflict Equation and other conflict analysis tools ENRM tools, including stakeholder analysis LTPR matrix Conceptual mapping in order to put some of these elements together In a complex situation involving environmental change, risks of conflict and disputed property rights, various tools should be used to identify enabling conditions and the interventions necessary to meet them

Tools for a sequencing strategy A theory of change Key outcomes A menu of possible interventions How outcomes and interventions are linked (mutual reinforcing) Priorities and parameters (USAID and external) Scenario planning using your conceptual model Scope: a general description of what the intervention involves; Timing: when the intervention would be launched; Duration: how long it will need to be in place to achieve its desired outcomes Outcomes should reference any interventions that they will provide enabling conditions for.

Sequencing lessons Peace and Stability. If a minimum degree of social harmony is not assured, it may be very difficult to achieve positive outcomes. This should be addressed first. Process is key. A transparent and inclusive process is critical to success. Good Governance. A degree of functional governance (formal or informal) is a prerequisite. Efforts to create or stimulate markets for land or natural resources should wait until other key objectives are fulfilled (equitable access to land, reducing vulnerability to resource scarcities, etc).

Sequencing lessons Team will need to draw heavily on the Integrated Assessment to ensure attention to drivers, enabling conditions Adaptability is key Flexibility should be built into all aspects Stakeholders should be included in all stages of program design and implementation Adaptability: Sequencing may have to change in response to dynamic conditions on the ground Flexibility should be built into all aspects contracting/assistance mechanisms, workplan timing, recruitment, procurement Stakeholders should be included in all stages of program design and implementation to ensure buy-in and avoid surprises

Sequencing: practical experiences Do you have experiences with sequencing that you would like to share? Do you have experiences with sequencing that you would like to share? The following presentation provides a real example of how multi-sectoral efforts have been sequenced. After the presentation, we will conduct a sequencing exercise so that you can try out some of these approaches