Making SOME Sense of the 2016 Presidential Election John G. Geer Vice Provost of Academic and Strategic Affairs Gertrude Conaway Vanderbilt Professor of Political Science Co-Director of the Vanderbilt Poll

2016 Presidential Elections: Structural Forces *Economy *2 Terms Obama * Incumbent rating *Anger *Paid v. Free Media *demographics

Economy, Incumbent, and Time for Change Model, 1948-2012

Middle Class Anger

Paid v. Free Media * one sided message by Clinton * presidential ads drove narrative 1988-2012 * Trump drives it in 2016 * Trump recasts traditional information flow?

Since June 2016: Over 211,000 campaign ads 23% FL 18% OH 14% NC 10% PA 5% VA 4% CO 4% National Cable

Since June 2016: Over 211,000 campaign ads 82% Democrat 18% Republican .8% Other

Trump and Free Media http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-mammoth-advantage-in-free-media.html

The role of changing demographics Asian Americans by 47 Points Obama won Women by 10 Percentage Points More importantly, there were 7.7 million more female voters than male voters. They provided 53% of the US electorate in the last election cycle. African Americans by 87 points Hispanic Voters by 47 Points Younger Voters Age 18-29 by 23 Points 48% 51% 332 206 Electoral Vote Popular Vote

White Vote is Getting Smaller Source: Roper Center Public Opinion Archives • www.ropercenter.uconn.edu

Female Vote is Increasing Source: Roper Center Public Opinion Archives • www.ropercenter.uconn.edu

Growing Hispanic Vote

Hispanic Vote in Presidential Elections  Democrat  Republican

The Democrat Edge States That Voted Consistently In The Past Six Presidential Elections Democrats won 18 states plus the District of Columbia six times in a row, which in 2016 would earn 242 electoral votes, about 90 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. In contrast, Republicans consistently carried 13 states over the last six elections, which in 2016 would earn the party 102 electoral votes, 38 percent of the 270 needed to win. The average state that voted Democratic in the past six elections delivers 13 electoral votes, while the average state that voted Republican in the past six elections delivers eight electoral votes. Voted Republican every election since 1992 Voted Democratic every election since 1992

And Who Wins????? Obama in late July: 51% approve, 44% disapprove GDP growth 2.1% Third Term not a charm…. But this model assumes equally qualified candidates and equal amount of resources….