1. the 2016 Presidential Campaign: Where We’ve Been, Where We’re GOING
Joshua D. Clinton
Abby and Jon Winkleried Professor
Professor, Political Science, Vanderbilt University
Co-Director, Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions
Co-Editor, Quarterly Journal of Political Science
Senior Election Analyst, NBC News (NY,NY)

3. Things to think about:
There is a lot of “breaking noise” in campaign coverage.
Lots (and lots) of numbers, but possibly little meaning.
Rules, Institutions, and Structure Matter.

4. The Role of the Media Media: profit-maximizing or public-maximizing?
The media want a story that generates interest (audience).
Desire to be “objective” but also critical.
Need politicians to appear.
Easier/cheaper to let the two-sides compete.
Conflict results in “breaking news”

5. Who was covered?

6. What was covered?

7. Correctly predicted every presidential election starting in 1916.
Role of the media in creating polls/pushing content

8. 1936 Literary Digest poll
Pushing poll results is not new –
October 30th, NYT 1936
Pop: 44,000,000 voters  10 million asked, 2.4 million answered.
Final Estimate: Landon 57% FDR 43%
Actual Vote: FDR 62% Landon 38%

9. Democrats

10. Timing and “Momentum”

12. March 13

13. And now, for something completely different….

14. Seemed so very long ago…

19. And very Accurate….

21. The General Election

23. 1. National Turnout iS Relatively Stable
Source: Current Population Survey, Validated Votes

24. Source: National Exit Polls

25. 2. Partisanship is an Anchor (DOWN!)
Source: NBC/Survey Monkey Weekly Tracker

26. Candidate Choice by Party Identification
Among TN Registered Voters
If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were [Donald Trump], [Hillary Clinton], [Gary Johnson], and [Jill Stein], who would you vote for?
Source: Vanderbilt University Poll
September 2016
N=1,000; MoE: +/- 3.7%

29. The importance of partisanship
Godfather’s pizza index: [-100,100]

31. Clinton & Democrats

32. Trump & republicans

33. 3. Structural Features Dominate

35. “October Surprise(s)?”

42. Post-election: Republican Edition