NCAR Research on Thunderstorm Analysis & Nowcasting

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Presentation transcript:

NCAR Research on Thunderstorm Analysis & Nowcasting James Pinto & Wiebke Deierling Lead Project Scientists NCAR / Research Applications Laboratory Disclaimer: This research is in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA.

Research in Thunderstorm Prediction at NCAR Lightning Detection and Nowcasting Predicting initiation of large convective storms High Resolution Ensemble Post-processing Data Fusion Techniques Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather : 23 October 2013

Lightning Detection Uncertainties Source A Source B Source C LMA DIA “Lightning Truth Field” from Colorado Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) recently installed by New Mexico Tech University Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather : 23 October 2013

Probabilistic Lightning Nowcasts Nowcast utilizes WSR-88D radar data to monitor radar reflectivity characteristics above the freezing level. Valid 30 min into future Forecasts lightning in cores, anvil, initiation and mature phases of convection. LMA Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather : 23 October 2013

Storm Initiation Prediction Satellite and VIL from MIT-LL CIWS MIT-LL CIWS Extrapolation Forecast 2 hour movie of obs VIL satellite imagery shows rapid storm initiation and growth to over 100 km in length over Iowa 2 hour loop for extrapolation forecast does well with existing storms But, does not give indication of new storm formation….. Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather : 23 October 2013

High Resolution Ensemble Model Post-processing for CI Prediction NOAA/GSD HRRR forecasts from different issue times valid at 22:00 UTC HRRR Ensemble Storm Initiation Likelihood and Extrapolation Forecasts 12:00 utc 16:00 utc CI Likelihood High 17:00 utc 18:00 utc Moderate Image processing technique used in algorithm to identify LCS, determines which ones are initiation events. Requires high-res ensemble data to get storm structure information. Valid 22:00 utc 19:00 utc 20:00 utc Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather : 23 October 2013

Data Fusion to Predict Storm Initiation Terrain HRRR CAPE Statistical Data Mining using Decision Trees Satellite Trends HRRR DPT Satellite HRRR RH / PSLV Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather : 23 October 2013

Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather : 23 October 2013 Summary Points Be aware that there are uncertainties in observations and nowcasts. Focus of work in RAL on quantifying uncertainty in short term prediction of convection and its characteristics Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather : 23 October 2013

Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather : 23 October 2013 Extras Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather : 23 October 2013

Conveying Uncertainty Confidence is generally described as the level of certainty that a hypothesis or prediction is correct. Statistical definition – “The Confidence Interval provides a range of values that bracket the mean outcome at a given level of certainty.” Probability is the likelihood that an uncertain event will occur. 95% confidence interval Most likely category Precip Category P(7) = 16% -> 0.1-0.2” in 3 hr period Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather : 23 October 2013