1. Marilyn Wolfson (MIT/LL),
NCWF Plans
Cindy Mueller (NCAR)
Steve Weygandt (FSL)
Marilyn Wolfson (MIT/LL),
Barb Brown (NCAR), and
Jesse Sparks (AWC)
Goal: 0-6hr Probablistic Forecasts that combine automation, NWP, and forecaster input
Photo courtesy of Gregg Thompson

2. NCWF Demonstrations Probability Forecasts (strategic planning)
1 & 2-h observation based
Radar mosaics, lightning, & RUC
ExADDs
NCAR
Extended NCWF (E-NCWF)
2, 4 & 6-h RUC based
WWW page (next summer)
FSL/NOAA
Future
Fused observations, NWP and forecaster, 0-6 hr forecast
Test in summer 05
NCWF-2
19z + 2h
E-NCWF

3. NCWF-2 Operational NCWF NCWF-2 1 hr Extrapolation (cyan) Binary yes/no
1-2 hr probability forecasts
Capture regions of growth
Trend dissipation

4. RTVS Verification – 1hr

5. Large-scale Trending of Dissipation
Black contours NCWD verification observation
1-hr without Trending
1-hr with Trending
2-hr without Trending
2-hr with Trending
CSI
1-hr Forecast
Black – Without trending
Magenta – With trending

6. E-NCWF, NCWF-2, and Forecaster Input July 14, 2004 Valid - 11Z
10z + 1h
09z + 2h
CIWS VIL
11 Z
E-NCWF, NCWF-2, and
Forecaster Input
July 14, 2004
Valid - 11Z
Forecaster:
- Strong upper-tropospheric divergence over the western NY/PA, weak low-level jet and warm-air advection provides additional forcing, thus elevated convection likely to persist throughout the early morning hours.

7. ANC Forecast loop

8. Finally One Last Slide… PROBABILITIES
Forecaster/developer perspective
Quantify uncertainty
Provide a methodology (or common unit) to combine observational-based forecasts with NWP.
Requires additional research to better quantify predictability of convective events and associated environmental processes.
User perspective
Calibrate decisions based on probability and risk
Maps of probabilities of convection alone not entirely useful (information about echo tops or convective organization very helpful)
Verification
Problems that arise in current verification techniques due to off-set errors and difference in scales between forecast and observations are not alleviated by probability forecasts.

9. Thank You!