Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System – SAAPS

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Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System – SAAPS Peter Wintoft & Lars Eliasson Swedish Institute of Space Physics

SAAPS Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System ESA Contract 11974/96/NL/JG(SC): Development of AI Methods in Spacecraft Anomaly Predictions Extension of the SPEE study Two year project (April 1999 - April 2001) Database and software

The model

SAAPS Data Sources

The model

SAAM Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis Module Plotting tools Statistics Superposed epoch analysis Correlations (linear and entropy based) Cluster analysis Pattern definition and search Guidelines Estimate best prediction model

The model

SAPM Spacecraft Anomaly Prediction Module Neural network based prediction models Real time forecast Connects to SAAM for analysis Anomaly index (?) and/or Spacecraft dependent anomaly predictions

www.geo.fmi.fi/spee

Space weather A definition: Space weather refers to solar conditions that can affect the Earth's atmosphere, technological systems and human health.

The particle environment Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) nuclei with energies of several GeV modulated by the solar wind magnetic field, thus, inversely correlated with the solar cycle The inner radiation belt (r < 2.5 RE) protons with energies less than 600 MeV electrons with energies less than several MeV The outer radiation belt (r < 10 RE) mainly electrons highly time varying and driven by the solar wind

The radiation belts

The effect on spacecraft A GCR or energetic proton can lead to a single event phenomena (SEP), which can be further divided into single event upset (SEU) causing state change in digital circuits single event latchup (SEL) causing parts to hang up single event burnout (SEB) causing permanent damage Electrostatic charging by keV electrons (surface charging) MeV electrons (internal charging)

Examples of satellite anomalies AT&T Telstar, lost contact on January 11th 1997 (GCR) Simultaneous failure of GOES-2 and -4 in November 1982 (GCR) Intelsat K momentum wheel control circuit anomaly on January 20th 1994 (Charging) Anik E-1 momentum wheel control circuit anomaly on January 20th 1994 (Charging)

SAAPS Database of space weather data and satellite anomaly data Tools for the analysis of satellite anomalies Models for real time predictions of satellite anomalies on time scales from hours to days

SAAPS Tools and models Graphical presentations such as plots and warning signals Statistical calculations AI models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Fuzzy Systems

Analysis module

Prediction module