Break out group - Dominica International Workshop on CSIS coordination and implementation

Sector to be served Focus on DRR & climate resilience Agriculture and food security as a focus Improved early warning on hydro-climatic extremes as expressed in floods and landslides Hazards impact on farm (productivity: physical damage to crops) and off farm activity (transport and storage: road damage to access markets, port damage, displacement of population) Source: the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of Dominica to the UNFCCC (2015)

Goal and nature of the service Goals: EWIS to evacuate population at time of disaster map and quantify hazard for the agricultural sector Nature: Extensive EWS network of AWS for monitoring of extreme events; TRMM based dataset on high resolution occurrence of extreme events Extreme climatology (conditional probabilities of hydroclimatic extreme events, return periods, bandwith of amplitudes, trends – observed) Prediction: seasonal and weather forecasts of extreme precipitation Projections: weather generator type of future projections Gain the sustained engagement of the stakeholders, given the SIDS nature of the island (very small, very steep topography, vulnerability to multiple and simultaneous natural hazards, limited resources and limited adaptive capacity in general)

Expected key partners in service delivery National: Dominica Met Service National Emergency Management Agency and NDC and local level risk management committees Civil Society Min. Agriculture / extension services Regional: CIMH (RCC) Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) Caribbean Agriculture Research and Development Institute (CARDI) Caribbean Farmers’ Network (CAFAN) International: World Bank – PPCR/SPCR (which will start this year and focuses on EWSs) NOAA CPC/GPC Washington DC for collaboration with RCC in capacity development and provision of input data into forecasts IRI as partner in development of seasonal extreme rainfall forecasts

NMHS requirements from RCC Expanding the daily rainfall data network and dataset: A possible methodology could be to interpolate between stations in neighbouring islands following the method in the US Climate Local Analysis Tool  this would augment the dataset to work with on top of the two stations in Dominica Climate analogue method Monitoring: Building of an AWS, river level and soil moisture sensor driven EWS Drought and precipitation monitor, including a not-as-yet existing extreme rainfall monitor Crop stress monitor

NMHS requirements from RCC Prediction: Actionable prediction information on extreme rainfall and hurricanes (WRF, HWRF), flash flood guidance systems Seasonal extreme rainfall frequency forecasts Comprehensive impacts database to enable flash flood, flooding and land slide outlooks based on extreme rainfall forecasts Projection: Look at trends in frequencies and magnitudes of extreme rainfall in future to foster better appreciation of the bandwith within which climate change adaptation should take place

Engagement requirements from other partners Capacity development: Integration of all Early Warning information into the DEWETRA real time multi-hazard EWS Develop Met Service and local DRR community, agricultural community and Civil Society in the use of DEWETRA and the EWS Develop the capacity and outline the roles of local actors in mitigation, response and recovery to hydroclimatic extremes induced emergencies Map stakeholders and enhance framework for response and recovery action at national level DRR operations: Comprehensive set of concrete actions triggered by the early warning Planning for resilience: Mainstream knowledge on future extremes into agricultural planning

Concrete plan for the next 12-18 months Presented track unlikely to be identified by Dominica’s Met Service. In this case, four implementation phases are foreseen. Implementation Phase 1 (months 1-12): Installation and operationalisation of extensive EWS network + integration into DMS observations dataset (SPCR funded); Research at RCC + in-country capacity development for extreme rainfall climatology, seasonal and weather forecasting (SPCR funded (+ USAID)); Appointment of a steering committee; Initial stakeholder engagement workshop + annex first meeting of steering committee; Implementation Phase 2 (months 13-18): Mapping of Weather Generators for projections of changes of extreme rainfall by RCC (in kind RCC contribution); Starting integration of extreme rainfall forecasting functionality into DEWETRA multi-hazard platform (in kind RCC contribution); Tools and products training workshop for partner stakeholders + annex second meeting of steering committee; Preparing for a flood response plan and policy writeshop (review of national, regional and global DRR and climate resilience frameworks / legal documents)