County of Santa Barbara Coastal Resiliency Project Central Coast Sustainability Summit October 11, 2017 Selena Evilsizor, AICP County of Santa Barbara

Project Overview and Schedule Modeling and Mapping Vulnerability Assessment Adaptation Strategies and Policy Development Public Workshops Public Hearings LCP Amendment Adoption June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 June 2019

Why Coastal Resiliency Now? State Guidance / Proposed Legislation Provide predictability for Coastal Development Permits Development can last 75+ years Grant money available Preparation cheaper than reaction

Vulnerability Assessment – Background and Methodology Study Area Sea Level Rise Scenarios Asset Sector Analysis Model results  GIS hazard zones Overlaid coastal flood and erosion hazard zones with sectors Identified vulnerable assets Model Limitations

Roads & Public Transportation Roads, railroad track, bus routes, bus stops, bike routes, traffic trips Vulnerable by 2100 to Flooding and/or Erosion (without any adaptation measures): Railroad: 62 miles (42% of total County track) Roads: 45 miles Bus: 34 bus stops Bike: 24 miles of bike routes

Roads & Public Transportation Impacts to Highway 101 (miles) No Coastal Armoring With Coastal Armoring Coastal Flooding Existing 2030 0.3 0.01 2060 1.1 0.25 2100 11.9 6.18 Cliff Erosion 0.23 11.0 6.05 Dune Erosion 0.02 0.80

Sampling of Other Findings – by 2100: Gaviota oil and gas terminal is not at risk No industrial land uses vulnerable Over 800 acres of residential land use vulnerable to flooding No police stations or hospitals vulnerable Only one fire station and two schools vulnerable, but have time to prepare County coastal parks and trails, beach access points, recreational facilities at risk Few hazardous material storage sites vulnerable Over 350 known prehistoric and 150 known historic sites vulnerable

No changes to zoning or land use designations Policy Development Goal: Create new and enhance existing coastal development and adaptation policies No changes to zoning or land use designations Use existing policies whenever possible Provide predictability to permit applicants Draft policies available for review at: http://longrange.sbcountyplanning.org/

CoastalResilience.org Mapping Tool

Questions? http://longrange.sbcountyplanning.org/programs/ coastalresiliencyproject/coastalresiliency.php Selena Evilsizor Long Range Planning County of Santa Barbara sevilsizor@countyofsb.org (805) 568-3577