International & National Travel Outlook For 29th Annual Southern California Visitors Industry Outlook Conference October 20, 2017
Factors Impacting International Travel & Destination Choices Origin country economic conditions Exchange rates between origin and destination countries Size and disposable income of (origin) population Physical, financial, political ability of individuals to travel Traveler access to visas, required documentation Government imposed travel restrictions Destination economics/costs Destination conditions (e.g., war, famine, storms, fires, etc.) Consumer confidence Perceptions about destination through real-news, fake-news, word of mouth, media, social media, etc. Competitive forces Marketing promotion
KEY THEMES FOR U.S. & GLOBAL ECONOMY Consumers positioned for leisure travel growth Steady job and modest income growth – 16 year low unemployment rate Stronger consumer confidence supporting spending and travel Gas prices expected to remain relatively steady and reasonable Business is Solid Businesses are profitable Business investment growth is resuming; stock market doing well Manufacturing activity rebounding Proposed tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and less regulation viewed as positives Global economy is accelerating World GDP 2018 forecast 3.0% China GDP continues to slow down – but still at relatively strong growth Europe: holding at modest growth but picking up Exchange rate: $U.S. still strong but weakening against many world currencies w which leads to increased travel
2017 & 2018 U.S. GDP ACCELERATING US GDP
Most Growth in Asia Global Economies 2017 % Change (from 2016)
Asian Growth Expected to Continue in 2018 Global Economies 2018 Forecast % Change (from 2017)
Top International Inbound U.S. & CAL United States CAL Annual Volume (mill.) 2016 Rank Annual Spend ($bill.) Ann. Volume (mill) 2018 (f) Annual Volume (mill.) Canada 19.3 1 $20.9 2 19.4 7.90 Mexico 18.7 $20.0 3 21.3 1.50 Utd. Kingdom 4.6 $16.0 5 4.9 .69 4 Japan 3.6 $16.1 3.8 .55 6 China 3.0 $33.0 4.0 1.36 Germany 2.0 $8.0 10 2.2 .42 9 South Korea 7 $8.6 .47 Brazil 1.7 8 $11.0 n/a France 1.6 1.8 .44 Australia 1.4 $8.7 .60 India 1.3 11 1.5 .32
Panelists Robert Kleinhenz - Economist and Executive Director of Research, Beacon Economics Topic – Outlook for State & Regional Economies Dan Mishell - Director of Research, California Travel & Tourism Commission/Visit California Topic - Outlook for California Tourism Skip Hull - Senior Vice President, CIC Research Inc. Topic - Outlook for Southern California Tourism