Using Models Not all of these events are ‘disasters’ A natural hazard event becomes a disaster when the event causes a significant impact on a vulnerable population. These impacts could be human (death, injury) and / or economic (property losses, loss of income). Definitions vary, but ‘significant’ losses usually means 10+ deaths / 100+ affected / $1 million losses. The Dregg disaster model

Event profiles Not all hazards are the same Event profiles are a common way of comparing different hazards In this example the 2004 Asian Tsunami and ongoing eruption of Kilauea on Hawaii are compared Hazard profiles can be drawn for any event.

Impacts Every hazard event is different, and therefore the specific impacts of disaster vary When researching case studies, it is important to be able to identify specific impacts and be able to explain these Some impacts are tangible and can be given a financial value. Others are intangible, such as the destruction of a temple or artwork. Many losses are direct and immediate such as property damage, but others are indirect – these come later and are harder to quantify, such as stress and psychological damage. Impacts are often considered as human (death, injury, illness), economic (property loss, loss of income, cost of relief effort) and physical (changes to landscape and topography).

Developed versus developing world It is often said that disaster impacts in the developed world are largely economic, whereas in the developing world they are human (death). You should carefully consider if this generalisation is true.

Impacts over time A simplified version of Park’s hazard response model is shown below Different hazard events have different impacts, shown by the speed of the drop in quality of life, the duration of the decline, and the speed and nature of recovery. The differences in the 3 lines might be related to type of hazard, degree of preparedness, speed of the relief effort and the nature of recovery and rebuilding.

4. Responses to hazards Do nothing (ignore the risk) Move to a safer location Attempt to prevent the hazard Adapt lifestyle to the hazard People cope with natural hazards in very different ways The chosen ways are often related to wealth and access to technology Humans do have a capacity to ignore or seriously underestimate risk, even when it seems obvious to others Often it may seem obvious that people should move out of harms way, but in reality this may be impossible.

Hazard modification Modify the event (hazard mitigation) Modify human vulnerability Modify the loss Hurricane/ Cyclone Coastal defences and engineering Warming and prediction systems Disaster management and landuse planning Building standards Provision of emergency kits Insurance in MEDCs, Aid and assistance in LEDCs.

The hazard management cycle Successful hazard management involves a cycle (see diagram) which focuses on the types of modification from the previous slide. A focus on modifying loss only, will not improve survival chances when the next hazard strikes Long before a natural hazard event, there needs to be a focus on mitigation and prevention (if possible) as well as human preparedness.