Transatlantic Relations and the Obama Presidency

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Presentation transcript:

Transatlantic Relations and the Obama Presidency New Opportunities, New Dangers Michael Baun Valdosta State University

What a difference a President makes!

A favorable climate Obama shares European values and approach pro-US leadership in key European countries strong desire on both sides of Atlantic for improved US-Europe relations Obama popularity in Europe

Common interests on key issues Iraq Middle East (Israel-Palestine) Iran Afghanistan-Pakistan (“Afpak”) China Russia climate change global financial and economic crisis

Iraq US – plan for withdrawal (combat forces by August 2010; all US forces by end of 2011); ensure security; comprehensive regional agreement? Europe – support for economic and political reconstruction

Middle East US – diplomatic re-engagement; pressure on Israel; negotiations with Syria and Iran Europe – support for Palestinians; incentives for Israel; ENP cooperation with Syria and Lebanon (EU or NATO border monitoring forces?)

Iran US – direct negotiations with Iran; offer more incentives (WTO membership, investment, normalized diplomatic relations) Europe – more incentives, but also be willing to apply tougher sanctions

“Afpak” US – more troops; counter-insurgency operations and improved security; negotiate with Taliban; more economic and military aid for Pakistan Europe – more NATO troops? support for economic and civilian reconstruction; support for Pakistan

China Trilateral cooperation on: energy climate change trade and economic crisis reforming global governance institutions integrating China into global system as “responsible stakeholder”

Russia US – “grand bargain” with Russia on missile defense, NATO enlargement, arms control; in return for cooperation on Iran, Afghanistan, drug trade? Europe – EU-Russia partnership agreement new security agreement for Europe?

Climate change renewed US commitment, engagement US-European leadership to reach agreement on post-Kyoto treaty and bring emerging economies (China, India) on board

Global economic crisis key role for US-EU cooperation as world’s largest economic powers no prospects of successful crisis response and reform of global economic governance without US-EU cooperation

Conditions for successful US-Europe cooperation US must: match words with action promote European unity consult, listen, not just demand

Conditions for successful US-Europe cooperation Europe must: be more united be more pro-active

Some useful steps institutionalize US-EU governmental relations, at all levels permanent transatlantic working groups: to study issues like conflict prevention, post-conflict stabilization, nation-building, etc. more people-to-people contacts and exchanges: academic, professional, etc.

New dangers for transatlantic relations? disagreements over specific issues frustrated expectations

New dangers (cont.) Current global developments: global economic crisis leads to protectionism, economic nationalism new multipolarity (China’s rise) - US focus on China and Asia - Europe balance-of-power temptations

A window of opportunity Will we use it?