VEHICLE ENERGY SYSTEMS Over the next decade, the shift to electric vehicles will create new models of energy storage that have as big an impact on the way cities manage their energy grid as on their urban transportation systems. At the core of this disruption is the rapidly growing capability of batteries with both much longer lives and denser energy profiles. As cars and trucks become not only energy users but also mobile energy sources, they will begin to reinvent the grids that distribute renewable energy from solar and wind sources across the urban landscape. The result in 2025 is a more resilient, sustainable, and even mobile platform for both energy management and transportation of goods and people.

WHAT‘S DRIVING THIS FORECAST Accelerated adoption of hybrid and full electric vehicles, doubling annually over the past three years (2011–2014) Ability of existing plug-in hybrid vehicles to power a house for a day, while full electric vehicles could power a household for a week Intermittent renewable energy sources that require a better power storage infrastructure Net metering that allows electric consumers to sell overproduction of energy back to the grid Potential for autonomous vehicles to respond programmatically to demand for transportation

SURGE PRICING FOR POWER Electric vehicles plugged into the grid receive free battery charges with an agreement to serve as a power source during temporary power-use surges SIGNAL: In California, PG&E’s SmartAC Switch and networked thermostat system lets the grid briefly shut off air conditioning during periods of high power demand Image source: http://www.pge.com/en/myhome/saveenergymoney/plans/smartac/index.page  SO WHAT: Existing smart grid experiments pave the way for integrating vehicle energy storage into the larger power grid

WATT TORRENT Peer-to-peer energy sharing networks evolve to use electric vehicles as overflow storage SIGNAL: OpenIDEO proposes a P2P platform for distributed energy resource that would allow individuals to directly sell excess electricity production from renewable energy SO WHAT: Building on home solar generation with vehicle storage devices, P2P grids begin to break down the centralized model for energy distribution  Image source: https://openideo.com/challenge/renewable-energy/ideas/peer-to-peer-access-to-renewable-energy

AD HOC POWER Electrical vehicles serve as point sources for ad hoc nano- and microgrids, especially during disaster recovery SIGNAL: Solar E. Technology offers nano-grid solutions that capture renewable energy in the daytime, switching to stored energy at nighttime, using mobile- enabled meters with mobile payment options SO WHAT: Nanogrid development as an urban response to disaster preparedness catalyzes standards for nanogrid connections and control devices  Image source: http://www.solar-e-technology-bd.com/solar-nano-grid

SHARED AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE FLEETS Fleets of autonomous vehicles are deployed algorithmically to high demand zones for either transportation or energy SIGNAL: A University of Texas study finds that using a Shared Autonomous Vehicle (SAV) fleet, one SAV could replace nine conventional vehicles with an average user wait time of one minute SO WHAT: Autonomous vehicles create a more sustainable infrastructure for both transportation and energy Image source: http://www.caee.utexas.edu/prof/kockelman/public_html/TRB15SAVsinAustin.pdf

THE NEXT FIVE YEARS Car and battery companies compete to lead development of a standard home charger that can be set to pull power from electric cars Increased instability in the power grid drives demand for off- grid power while continued growth of plug-in vehicle market builds supply Companies and cities partner to experiment with shared autonomous vehicle zones Companies with dedicated EV fleets experiment with vehicles as mobile energy sources

TEN-YEAR SCENARIO In 2025, communities around the world are experimenting with three distinct models for deploying vehicle energy systems. The first is vehicular energy for disaster zones, including both household backup energy and taxi fleets that can be deployed to disaster zones when needed. The second is the off-grid solution, where households or neighborhoods integrate electric vehicles into nano- or even microgrids as a way to support a resilient hyper-local energy economy. Third is city-scale urban vehicle fleets, algorithmically controlled to load-balance demand for both transportation and energy across the city, successfully reducing the carbon footprint of automobile transportation while providing sustainable regional transportation and energy. All three rethink the relationship between energy and transportation as society moves from fossil fuels to renewable electric power.