Traffic forecasting and autonomous vehicles Serbjeet Kohli Luis Willumsen

The disruptive nature of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) They are only 4 years away They will change: Traffic and reduce accidents Capacity of roadways Average speeds Trip induction Vehicle ownership & ride sharing Willingness to pay to save time Public Transport mode share Shape of cities and suburbs Probably other things as well: activities and lifestyle

AVs are not the only problem Peak car Energy prices Distance presence Internet procurement Additive manufacturing Internet of things Attitudes to globalisation Populism, new nationalism…... Let’s deal with one problem at the time: AVs in our models and forecasts

Some Key Questions For Level 4/5 (no need for drivers) When AVs will be available for purchase by ordinary citizens in your country/region? When AVs will be 10% and 20% of the car fleet in your country/region? What premium will AVs secure compared to a normal car? What proportion of the AV fleet will be owned by individuals whilst the rest hired with Uber style pricing?

A Delphi Poll Delphi Method: interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.

When will AVs be available? Average 2023 but US/Canada 2021 L America 2026

AV as share of FLEET: function of car ownership growth, AV premium, AV share of purchases, scrap rate. Initial 1 million car fleet, some growth, 5% scrap rate; increasing share of purchases 2% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

AV as share of TRAFFIC: function of AVs in fleet, Induction, empty running.

When will AVs be 10% of fleet? Average 2032 but US/Canada 2028 L America 2039

A Delphi poll for Level 4/5 AV 12 Key questions For rental AVs, how much cheaper/expensive than Uber? a and b. Impact on the capacity of freeways/motorways when AVs are 10% and 20% of the traffic? a and b. Impact on the capacity of urban roads when AVs are 10% and 20% of traffic? a and b. Effect on trip making for AV owners and renters five years after they become available?

AVs will be rented or owned? Average 42% but Europe 33% L America 57%

How expensive AV rental? Average 0.9 but US/Canada 0.7 RoW 1.3

Impact on motorway capacities at 10% and 20% of traffic Averages 1.0 and 1.1 but US 1.1 and 1.2

A Delphi poll for Level 4/5 AV 12 Key questions a and b. Impact on urban bus Public Transport demand when AVs are 10% or 20% of the car fleet? a and b. Impact on urban Fixed Track Public Transport (Rail, metro, LRT, BRT)? a,b and c. Effect on the behavioural Value of Travel Time Savings (VTTS) of AV users? a,b and c. Effect on the Social Value of Time for Cost Benefit Analysis?

Impact on bus Public Transport Average 0.9 but in US Canada 0.7

Impact on fixed track Public Transport Average 0.9 for both levels

gives an average ratio of 0.80 Impact on Values of Travel Time Savings Average ratio 0.9 Ignoring ratios > 1 gives an average ratio of 0.80 

Premium to pay for an AV around US$ 6,600 Other results (average responses) Premium to pay for an AV around US$ 6,600 AVs will be 20% of the fleet around 2037 Impact on urban roads at low AV penetration would be minimal AV owners would make some 10% more VKT than normal car users AV renters would make some 10% fewer VKT than normal car users Equity Values of Time should change in line with Behavioural Values of Time

Suggestions The estimates are widely spread Current levels of uncertainty Different regional views even within countries Influenced by quality of public transport or emotional attachment to driving cars There is no single answer; main drivers seem to be: Rental vs owned AVs Labour costs vs technology costs Public transport LOS & scope for AV as feeder Land Use density DO NOT USE THE AVERAGE RESPONSES Develop scenarios appropriate to your case and update them yearly; learn to live with the uncertainty.

Thank you