1. Scenario Planning in the Atlanta Region
February 25, 2016
John Orr

2. ARC is the Federally-Designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for Transportation in the 20-County Atlanta Region
More than 5.5 million people
Population larger than 30 states
Economy larger than 33 states
It’s important to consider how scenarios impact society, and it’s important to make sure you can measure the results to inform policy.
Some scenarios are more or less likely, and it’s important to weigh that into your decision-making process.

3. Scenario Planning Framework
Questions to Address while Formulating Scenarios
Broad
Specific
What future conditions or events are possible or probable?
How and where will we grow?
How will we travel?
How is our society changing?
With any scenario you devise you start with a broad question about future conditions or events, then bring it down to specific impacts you care about.

4. Scenario Planning Framework
Questions to Address while Formulating Scenarios
Broad
Specific
What future conditions or events are possible or probable?
How and where will we grow?
How will we travel?
How is our society changing?
With any scenario you devise you start with a broad question about future conditions or events, then bring it down to specific impacts you care about.

5. Scenario Planning Framework
Questions to Address while Formulating Scenarios
Broad
Specific
What future conditions or events are possible or probable?
How and where will we grow?
How will we travel?
How is our society changing?
What are the consequences or effects of those possible future conditions or events?
How do we measure the impacts?
How likely is the scenario?
What are the costs and trade-offs?
What needs to be done to respond to, benefit from, enable or prevent those conditions or events from happening?
Is this future desirable?
How much can we really control?
What actions are needed and when?
After you’ve looked at some of your results (qualitative and quantitative) it’s time to determine actions to either encourage or discourage that scenario.

6. Previous Scenario Work
Local Land Use Plans
Regional Forecasts
Concentrated Growth
Outward Expansion
Water Constraints
Southside Growth
Unified Growth Policy Map (UGPM)
This time around, we wanted to focus on technologies and how they might shape the future in ways we’re still trying to understand

7. The Regional Plan - Engagement Phases (2014-2016)
Public Involvement
The Regional Plan - Engagement Phases ( )
Values and Aspirations
July – September 2014
Strategies and Scenarios
October – December 2014
Funding Priorities
January – March 2015
Preliminary Recommendations
September – November 2015
Went to the public as part of the plan development process to get their opinion on 3 broad technology changes – transit, teleworking/transit technologies and autonomous vehicles
Official Comment on Final Plan
December – January 2015
Approvals
February – March 2016

8. Crafting Scenarios Transit Scenario
Shift an additional amount of the region’s baseline employment and population growth into emerging job centers in the southern half of the region

9. Transit Scenario
Connect all major job centers with premium transit and improve safety and accessibility
171 new miles of premium transit (BRT, heavy rail, light rail or commuter rail)
Approximately a $20 Billion transit investment
Increase premium transit service to regional and emerging employment centers
Increased parking costs
Vary transit propensity (willingness to ride transit) factors

10. Advanced Technology Scenario
Examine the potential impacts of technological advances to reduce travel demand.
When will broadband videoconferencing become widely available?
What types of jobs can be done remotely and how many people would choose that option?
Could drone delivery revolutionize how we shop?
How would drones impact our existing freight infrastructure?
In the scenario we
Doubled telecommuting (total amount varied by sector)
Increased vanpools & information
Unified payment system for seamless transfers

11. Autonomous Vehicles Scenario
Examine the potential impacts of autonomous vehicles on travel demand
How do we account for partial autonomy versus complete autonomy?
How long will it take to convert our existing fleet?
Will road conditions be a major variable in the effectiveness of the technology?
Could true self-driving cars increase throughput capacity on our roads?
Could this technology increase the number of trips being made?
Will cars be owned or shared?
Increased market penetration of level 4 autonomous vehicles
Increased capacity due to vehicle platooning and improved signal optimization
0-auto households -> drive-alone trips
Smaller disutility for in-vehicle time

12. Results from Analysis
Autonomous vehicle technology leads to a 15-50% decrease in future regional congestion in 2040
Harnessing technology to increase teleworking (and other changes) leads to over a 25% decrease in future congestion in 2040
Other interesting
Creating additional connected job centers via transit increases transit trips by over 100,000 a day in 2040

13. Additional Results from Analysis
Autonomous vehicle technology drives down the number of transit trips while driving up VMT
Autonomous vehicle technology still has numerous uncertainties related to vehicle ownership, empty vehicle VMT, accessibility
Autonomous Vehicles
50% increase in VMT
Transit trips in 2040 about the same as 2015
Heavy teleworking and technology scenario led to greatest system-wide improvements for the lowest cost (best Benefit-Cost ratio)

15. Incorporating Results into Planning
Key goal of incorporating 21st Century Technology into the transportation system
Objectives related to fostering advanced technologies & transit
Due to uncertainty, can’t scrap entire program/schedule of projects just because of 1 exercise…instead, incorporated ideas and results from the analysis into the policy framework, which lays the foundation for the development of the regional transportation plan and future planning efforts.
Foster the application of advanced technologies to the transportation system:
1. Pursue the application and use of advanced technologies
2. Encourage the application of passenger information technologies
Improve transit and non-single-occupant vehicle options to boost economic competitiveness and reduce environmental impacts:
1. Establish effective transit services that provide regional accessibility
2. Prioritize transit projects in areas with transit-supportive land use, plans
and regulations
5. Enhance and expand Transportation Demand Management (TDM) programs

16. Incorporating Results into Planning
Due to uncertainties around transit, ARC’s scenario planning exercise encouraged the development of two additional plans focused on transit & technology to be let in 2016:
Transit Technology Plan
Regional Transit Vision Update

17. Contact Information
John Orr
(404)