Martin Prowse and Natasha Grist Reconciling rural development objectives with climate change adaptation IFAD 20th November 2008 Martin Prowse and Natasha Grist

What are the key messages? Climate change poses important questions for current agriculture-led strategies to reduce poverty 2. A spectrum of adaptation options exist, but at the moment it is unclear if many are explicitly linked to rural investments that reduce poverty. 3. An explicit focus on assets adds a valuable perspective to linking adaptation with rural development debates – but will this be enough?

How climate change will impact on agriculture? Short and long term physical risks (increase in frequency and severity of natural hazards, reduced crop yields and area of arable land, etc.) will affect agricultural productivity. Impact on markets and trade (at the macro level). Need for additional investments (at the micro level). With reference to trade for instance, while Sudan, Nigeria, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Somalia, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Chad, Sierra Leone, Angola, Mozambique and Niger are expected to lose cereal-production potential by 2080, cereal production potential is expected to increase in Zaire, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Madagascar, Cote d’Ivoire, Benin, Togo, Ghana and Guinea by 2080 (Fisher et al. 2005). So there could be an increase in intra-regional trade. Current level of investments could be not sufficient. Effective adaptation to climate change will require additional targeted investments in other strategic areas to support agriculture and make it more resilient. These include agricultural research and infrastructures, risk management and mitigation capacity, diversification of both agricultural production and income sources.

What implications for agriculture-led strategies to reduce poverty? Critical role of agricultural productivity Increased smallholder yields can address both growth and equity goals at once Leads to multipliers in rural economy

Implication 1: Source of agricultural growth? Relationship between land and labour productivity Current strategies suggest that land productivity must rise faster But with climate change, the ability to stimulate agricultural growth becomes less likely

Implication 2: Will multipliers materialise? Smallholder-driven growth can lead to a more dynamic non-farm rural economy But increased incomes need to be consistent and stable And climate change will only increase variability and uncertainty

Initiatives on integrating adaptation into development planning Multilateral Initiatives 2005-2010 UNFCCC (SBSTA) Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation 2006 OECD Declaration on Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Cooperation including 2007 OECD Stocktaking Review on options for adaptation 2007 EU Global Climate Change Alliance 2008 Swedish Commission on CC and Development 2008 UNDP Community Based Adaptation programme Bilateral and other initiatives: DANIDA, NORAD, DFID Vulnerability Adaptation Resource Group; UK NGOs 7

Current status of integration of climate change into development planning Strong, high level policy endorsement of adaptation But implementation is weaker, and variable, across donors, developing countries and NGOs Consistency and coherence amongst actors is essential Most examples are of rural projects responding to CC impacts or building resilience and reducing vulnerability Adaptation ‘dividend’ can be gained alongside existing projects

So, what adaptation options are available? Adaptation picture ADAPT (WB) ORCHID: Portfolio screening (DfID) Community-based adaptation Urban asset adaptation frameworks (WB SD)

ADAPT

ORCHID Mainstreaming climate risk management through appraising projects and programmes Projects physical impacts onto a project portfolio, suggesting adaptation opportunities, and prioritising projects ......

Community-based adaptation Autonomous bottom-up approach to adaptation Builds on local technical knowledge and coping strategies Adaptation practices stemming from CBA differs across communities

Urban Asset Adaptation Framework Designed to support asset holdings Focuses on four stages at three levels Good policy and conceptual reasons for focussing on assets But what about assets in rural areas?

How are these adaptation options linked to key rural development objectives? To what extent are these adaptation approaches explicitly concerned with increasing land productivity? To what extent are these approaches explicitly linked to three ‘pillars’ we know makes agriculture work for the poor: infrastructure, education and information? Are these adaptation options enough?

Thank you! Dr Martin Prowse Research Officer Protected Livelihoods and Agricultural Growth, ODI m.prowse@odi.org.uk Dr Natasha Grist Research Fellow Climate Change and Development, ODI n.grist@odi.org.uk