Gayoung Kim and WMO LC-LRFMME team WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble Seasonal Climate Outlook for the 2017 Northeast Monsoon Season from WMO LC-LRFMME Gayoung Kim and WMO LC-LRFMME team Eleventh Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-11) 25-27 September 2017 Male, Maldives

Outline 01 Introduction of WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME) Seasonal Outlook for OND 2017 - Ocean condition and outlook - Forecast for OND 2017 02 03 Summary

WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME)

What is WMO LC-LRFMME? Long-Rrange Forecast (seasonal forecast) model outputs are not fully used due to different standards. It would be quite useful if all GPCs share their outputs with all regions. To use outputs more widely and effectively, we need linkage between GPCs and users. WMO LC produces MME data by using GPCs’ products If many GPCs’ products are combined by Lead Centre for LRF MME, seasonal and long-range prediction can show significant improvement contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation contribute to socio-economic plan taking into account variable climatic conditions by fully using GPCs’ products

WMO Global Producing Centres (13 GPCs) New GPC! Beijing: China Meteorological Administration (CMA)/ Beijing Climate Center (BCC) CPTEC: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research/ National Institute for Space Research (INPE) ECMWF: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Exeter: Met Office, United Kingdom Melbourne: Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia Montreal: Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Offenbach: Deutscher Wetterdienst Moscow: Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia Pretoria: South African Weather Services (SAWS) Seoul: Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Tokyo: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)/ Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Toulouse: Meteo-France Washington: Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States of America Offenbach (Aug. 2017~)

Goals of WMO LC-LRFMME Providing a conduit for sharing the model data Developing a well-calibrated MME system for - Mitigating the adverse impact of unfavorable climate conditions - Maximizing the benefit from favorable conditions Providing high-quality climate prediction products Developing advanced climate prediction technology

Membership Levels & Accessibility WMO LC-LRFMME Website URL: https://www.wmolc.org Membership Levels & Accessibility Level A (GPCs) - Upload & download digital data (limited) - Download image plots Level B (NMHSs, RCCs) - Download digital data (limited) & image plots Level C (Others) - Image plots As of 1st October 2014, access to the site is limited to Global Producing Centres (GPCs), Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and bodies coordinating Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)

Products of WMO LC-LRFMME Select… - Map Type - Period - Model - Parameters

Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME Support for Regional Climate Outlook Forums In 2016, SASCOF-8 4/25-26 (Colombo, Sri Lanka) GHACOF43 5/30-31 (Naivasha, Kenya) SASCOF-9 9/27-28 (Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar) ASEANCOF-7 11/14-18 (Manila, Philippines) CariCOF 12/1-3 (St. George’s, Grenada) FOCRAII CariCOF SASCOF ASEANCOF GHACOF Support for Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) A new Initiative for Consensus-Based Real Time Monitoring and Prediction of Seasonal Climate of the World To provide the world community with an expert consensus on the state of the global climate with an outlook for the upcoming season along with information on robustness of the available forecast signals. To strengthen international collaboration and information flow between global, regional and national level operational climate monitoring and prediction centres For use by RCCs, RCOFs and NMHSs for assistance in preparation of regional and national climate Updates

Current Oceanic Condition (Tropical Pacific Ocean & Indian Ocean)

Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific Ocean SST Warm SST anomalies were evident until July, but above-average temperatures dissipated across the central and eastern Pacific. In the recent week, cold SSTs expanded most of the eastern Pacific. In the last two months, negative subsurface temperature anomalies have expanded across the Pacific Ocean. Recently, the strongest negative anomalies lie between 170ºW-90ºW and extend to the surface. courtesy of NCEP/CPC (issued on 18 Sept.) courtesy of NCEP/CPC (issued on 18 Sept.)

Recent Evolution of Indian Ocean SST SST anomalies were positive in the western and negative in the eastern Indian Ocean during last 3 months. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is becoming positively stronger, recently. courtesy of APEC Climate Center

Seasonal Outlook: Winter 2017/18

Participating GPCs for Winter 2017/18 Prediction Beijing CPTEC ECMWF Exeter Melbourne Montreal Moscow Offenbach Seoul Tokyo Washington Institute BCC UKMO BoM MSC HMC DWD KMA TCC NCEP Hindcast period 1991-2010 1979-2010 1981-2010 1993-2015 1980-2011 1981- 2010 1991-2009 2017 2018 Initial Month 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 Sep OND Variable : 2m temperature, precipitation, mean sea level pressure, 850hPa temperature, 500hPa GPH, sea surface temperature (if available) New GPC, GPC-Offenbach, is included.

ENSO and IOD Prediction A tongue of negative SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific is predicted. Slightly positive SST anomalies expected to surround this cold tongue and span the tropical Pacific. Negative Nino 3.4 index is predicted. The gradient of SST anomalies across western-eastern Indian Ocean will be remained, however the magnitude of gradient is decreasing. Weak positive IOD is expected.

MME: Sea level pressure for OND 2017 Deterministic MME Probabilistic MME Positive and negative SLP anomalies is located in eastern and western Pacific Ocean. Relative low pressure surrounds western Indian Ocean. Negative ENSO- and positive IOD-related pattern is domenant during OND 2017 and it is agreed by more than 50% models.

MME: 2m temperature for OND 2017 Deterministic MME The MME prediction skills of 2m temperature for OND season are quite good compared with those of other regions (correlation and ROC scores for above/below normal categories). Most parts of India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, some parts of Myanmar are expected to be above-normal condition. Most parts of Thailand, Vietnam are expected to be near-normal condition (or equal-chance). Probabilistic MME

MME: Precipitation for OND 2017 Deterministic MME The MME prediction skills of precipitation for OND season are also quite good compared with those of other regions (correlation and ROC scores for above/below normal categories). Most regions are near-normal (equal-change) condition. Southern parts of Maldives are expected above-normal precipitation during OND 2017. Probabilistic MME

Summary for OND 2017 Ocean  ENSO prediction Neutral to negative ENSO (>-0.5 ˚C) is expected during OND 2017  IOD prediction Neutral to weak positive condition through OND 2017 Atmosphere : Warm and Slightly Wet during OND 2017  2m Temperature warmer-than-normal conditions over Most parts of India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, some parts of Myanmar  Precipitation Near-normal condition over most parts of South Asian region, but below-than-normal condition over Pakistan, above-normal conditions over some parts of Maldives

For more Information, Please contact Climate Prediction Division Korea Meteorological Administration 45 Gisangcheong-gil Dongjak-gu Seoul 156-720, Republic of KOREA Tel.:+82-2-2181-0475 Fax:+82-2-2181-0489 E-mail : lc_lrfmme@korea.kr Website : http://www.wmolc.org Contact Information

Individual forecast: 2m temperature for OND 2017

Individual forecast: Precipitation for OND 2017

Survey for Satisfaction Measurement via Website Why? To diagnose the current status of WMO LC-LRFMME and provide better services to the website user When? 1st September – 30th November 2017 To whom? All website registered members