Multinational Planning Augmentation Team Course of Action Analysis INTRODUCTION PART OF THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE OF THE SITUATION. BUILDS ON PREVIOUS BRIEFS.

Purpose Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process Discuss the associated task steps Identify the products resulting from COA analysis Provide lessons learned from previous exercises and operations

References JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, 1 Feb 1995 JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 1999 JP 5-03.1, JOPES, Volume I, (Planning Policies and Procedures), Annex P, Aug 1993 CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 97 AFSC PUB 1 IS NOT A DOCTRINAL PUBLICATION BUT IT IS A GOOD SOURCE OF INFORMATION. ON PAGES 6-40 THRU 6-42 THERE IS A SECTION ON “THE PRIMER ON THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE” WHICH HAS SOME REALLY GOOD INFO. JP 3-0 IN APPENDIX B HAS AN OVERVIEW OF WHAT IS REQUIRED. THROUGHOUT JP 3-0 ARE GOOD POINTS TO LOOK AT WHEN LOOKING FOR GOVERNING FACTORS. JP 5-00.2 IS THE NEW JOINT TASK FORCE DOCUMENT. A MUST READ FOR JTF PLANNING. JP 5-03.1 HAS FORMATS FOR MESSAGES, ORDERS, ETC. USING THESE FORMATS HELPS TO DEVELOP CHECKLISTS.

Crisis Action Planning Process III Course of Action Development II Crisis Assessment IV Course of Action Selection V Execution Planning OPORD & Deployment Data Base I Situation Development VI Execution And/or Warning Order Planning Order Alert Order Execute Order I Mission Analysis/ Restated Mission This is where COA Analysis fits in the overall process. The top line are the steps that the respective NCA’s are doing. The bottom boxes are the steps of the CTF. II Course of Action Development III Analysis of Opposing Courses of Action IV Comparison of Own Courses of Action V Commander’s Decision Commander’s Estimate Process

Courses of Action Analysis The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each proposed friendly COA as though executed against the most probable and most challenging or dangerous potential change in the situation (environment or belligerent action). This analysis illustrates that the commander considered the most significant and influential aspects of the situation. THE ANALYSIS OF COURSES OF ACTION SERVES TO IDENTIFY ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF EACH PROPOSED COA SO WE CAN LATER COMPARE OUR COAs AGAINST EACH OTHER. THE END PRODUCT: - A LIST OF THE ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF EACH COURSE OF ACTION; - A SYNCHRONIZATION MATRIX FOR EACH COA , THAT IDENTIFIES TASKS AND FORCE REQUIREMENTS BY COMPONENT AND JOINT FUNCTIONAL AREA. THIS BRIEF COVERS THE MECHANICS OF MAKING THAT HAPPEN.

Analysis of Opposing COAs Determine the probable effect of the most probable & most challenging or dangerous change in the situation on the success of each friendly COA Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion By time phasing Geographic location Functional event Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down SLIDE IS AN OVERVIEW OF WHAT WE WILL DISCUSS DURING THIS PERIOD OF INSTRUCTION. FIRST WE’LL LOOK WHAT THE VARIOUS THREATS CAN DO TO AFFECT US. NEXT, WE’LL FOCUS ON HOW WE’LL MECHANICALLY WORK THROUGH THE ANALYSIS PROCESS. THEN WE WILL EXAMINE FRIENDLY ACTIONS, CONSEQUENCES, AND OUR COUNTERACTIONS. FINALLY, WE’LL TALK ABOUT WHAT WE WILL DO WITH THIS ANALYSIS AND HOW IT FITS INTO THE PLANNING PROCESS. REMEMBER THAT THE TASK IS NOT TO COMPARE THE COAs AGAINST EACH OTHER. - OUR TASK IS TO COMPARE OUR COAs TO THE VARIOUS THREATS WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

Analysis of Opposing COAs (cont) Consider crisis termination issues; think through own action, consequences of our action, counteraction Conclude with: Revalidation of suitability, adequacy, feasibility Determine additional requirements Make modifications List advantages and disadvantages of each COA

Task Steps Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method THIS IS THE TASK SEQUENCE WE WILL DISCUSS TODAY. 1. GATHER THE TOOLS, MATERIAL AND DATA. 2. LIST THE ASSUMPTIONS. 3. LIST KNOWN CRITICAL EVENTS AND DECISION POINTS. 4. SELECT THE METHOD OF WARGAME ANALYSIS. 5. SELECT THE TECHNIQUE TO RECORD AND DISPLAY WARGAME RESULTS. 6. WARGAME THE OPERATION AND ASSESS THE RESULTS. 7. CONDUCT A RISK ASSESSMENT. 8. REVALIDATE THE COA FOR SUITABILITY, ACCEPTABILITY, AND FEASIBILITY. Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

Task Steps Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

Gather the Tools Friendly COAs The most probable & most challenging or dangerous change in the situation and / or belligerent COAs Combined operations area depiction Representation of friendly force distribution and probable threats Representation of environmental/civil conditions Synchronization Matrix Action-Consequence-Counteraction matrix Identify and review existing limitations NEED TO IDENTIFY THE FRIENDLY COAs THAT WE INTEND TO ANALYZE, TO INCLUDE COA STATEMENT AND SKETCH. IDENTIFY THE PROBABLE THREATS AGAINST WHICH THE FRIENDLY COA’S ARE TO BE ANALYZED IN ORDER OF PRIORITY. - IN CRISIS ACTION PLANNING WE WILL PROBABLY WARGAME AGAINST THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. GET A REPRESENTATION OF THE OPERATIONAL AREA: - MAPS AND OVERLAYS, DIGITAL DISPLAYS, REPRESENTATIONS OF AIRSPACE, SEA SURFACE/SUBSURFACE AREAS, LITTORAL AREAS, ETC. FRIENDLY FORCE DISPOSITIONS AND CAPABILITIES AND PROBABLE THREATS. - CONSIDER ALL ASSIGNED, OPCON, TACON, AND SUPPORTING FORCES AND ASSETS THAT ARE AVAILABLE FOR DIRECT EMPLOYMENT OR IN SUPPORT OF THE OPERATION. SHOW THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND CIVIL CONDITIONS WHICH EXIST THAT GENERATE THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE MILITARY OPERATION. IDENTIFY AND REVIEW THE EXISTING AND INHERENT SUPPORT RELATIONSHIPS AND LIMITATIONS (CONSTRAINTS AND RESTRAINTS) IMPOSED BY HIGHER HEADQUARTERS.

Task Steps Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

List Assumptions List the assumptions made during mission analysis Validity: Is the assumption necessary? Will the result change without the assumption? Logical, realistic, stated positively AT THIS POINT IN THE PROCESS WE NEED TO REEVALUATE OUR INITIAL ASSUMPTIONS TO ENSURE THEY’RE STILL VALID. WE HAVE TO ANSWER THE QUESTIONS ON THIS SLIDE. - IS IT NECESSARY TO MAKE THIS ASSUMPTION TO SOLVE THIS PARTICULAR PROBLEM? - WOULD THE RESULTS OF THE WARGAME BE DRAMATICALLY ALTERED IF WE DIDN’T MAKE THIS ASSUMPTION? - IF THE ANSWER IS “NO” THE ASSUMPTION IS NOT NECESSARY. OTHER ASSUMPTIONS MAY HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED DURING PREVIOUS STAGES OF THE PLANNING PROCESS. - BE SURE TO INCLUDE THESE IN THE ANALYSIS.

Task Steps Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

List Known Critical Events and Decision Points Critical events are essential tasks that require detailed analysis Decision points identify decisions the commander must make to ensure timely execution and synchronization Time available for analysis affects length of the critical events list CRITICAL EVENTS: NORMALLY THOSE SPECIFIED OR IMPLIED TASKS, THE COMPLETION OF WHICH ARE ESSENTIAL TO MISSION ACCOMPLISHMENT AND WHICH, IN THE JUDGMENT OF THE WARGAMER, REQUIRE DETAILED ANALYSIS. DECISION POINTS IDENTIFY IN (TIME AND SPACE) DECISIONS THAT THE COMMANDER MUST MAKE TO ENSURE TIMELY EXECUTION OF OUR PLAN TO ACHIEVE THE DESIRED EFFECTS OF THE OPERATION. CRITICAL EVENTS AND DECISION POINTS CAN OFTEN BE ANTICIPATED BEFORE ANALYSIS. ADJUST TPFFD

Task Steps Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

Select Method of Analysis Computer Assisted Integrated theater management model Tactical warfare model Joint conflict model Manual Deliberate timeline analysis Operational phasing Critical events THE METHOD OF WARGAMING DEPENDS UPON TIME AND OTHER RESOURCES AVAILABLE, STAFF EXPERTISE, AND THE DESIRED DEGREE OF RESOLUTION. ALTHOUGH COMPUTER ASSISTED METHODS MAY BE USED, TODAY WE WILL CONCENTRATE ON MANUAL METHODS. IN DELIBERATE TIMELINE ANALYSIS, THE STAFF AND FUNCTIONAL AREA REPRESENTATIVES METHODICALLY CONSIDER THE CTF ACTIONS DAY BY DAY OR IN DISCRETE BLOCKS OF TIME. THIS IS THE MOST THOROUGH METHOD OF WARGAMING - WHEN TIME ALLOWS. FOR OPERATIONAL PHASING, THE STAFF AND FUNCTIONAL AREA REPRESENTATIVES IDENTIFY SIGNIFICANT ACTIONS AND REQUIREMENTS FOR FUNCTIONAL AREAS AND COMPONENT BY PHASE. IN CRITICAL EVENTS, THE KEY STAFF AND FUNCTIONAL AREA REPRESENTATIVES FOCUS ON SPECIFIC CRITICAL EVENTS THAT ENCOMPASS THE ESSENCE OF THE COA. IF TIME IS PARTICULARLY LIMITED, THEY MAY FOCUS ON THE KEY EVENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO IDENTIFY A MEASURE OF EFFECTIVENESS (MOE) THAT ATTEMPTS TO QUANTIFY THE ACHIEVEMENT OF THAT EVENT OR TASK. THIS MOE SHOULD ENABLE CONSISTENT COMPARISON OF EACH COA.

Task Steps Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

Select Technique to Record and Display Analysis Techniques Narrative technique Sketch and note technique Analysis matrix RECORDING WARGAME RESULTS PROVIDES DATA FROM WHICH TO BUILD OR MODIFY TASK ORGANIZATIONS, SYNCHRONIZE ACTIVITY THROUGH COORDINATION, AND PREPARE PLANS AND ORDERS. IT PROVIDES THE STAFF WITH A RECORD OF STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES FOR COMPARISON OF COA. THE NARRATIVE TECHNIQUE DESCRIBES IN SENTENCE FORM THE VISUALIZATION OF THE OPERATION IN SEQUENCE. IT PROVIDES EXTENSIVE DETAIL AND CLARITY. IT PROVIDES A LARGE VOLUME OF INFORMATION AND IS THE MORE TIME CONSUMING TECHNIQUE. THE SKETCH AND NOTE TECHNIQUE USES BRIEF NOTES CONCERNING CRITICAL LOCATIONS OR TASKS. THE NOTES MAY REFER TO SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ON A MAP OR MAY RELATE TO GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS COVERING BROAD AREAS. NOTES MAY BE MADE ON MAPS, WARGAME WORKSHEETS, OR ON SYNCHRONIZATION MATRIX. THE SYCHRONIZATION MATRIX IS ALSO TIME CONSUMING, AND BETTER LEFT TO SITUATIONS WHERE TIME LIMITATIONS ARE NOT SO GREAT. CONSIDERATIONS ON WHICH TECHNIQUE TO USE ARE PRETTY MUCH SELF EXPLANATORY. THE ASSETS AVAILABLE IN THE HEADQUARTERS AND THE TIME AVAILABLE WILL DETERMINE WHICH TECHNIQUE WE USE. Considerations Assets available Time available

Task Steps Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

Wargame the Operation and Assess Results Visualize the flow of operations Assess the CTF performance two echelons down “Action-Consequence-Counteraction” WARGAMING IS A DELIBERATE, METHODICAL, EFFORT TO DESCRIBE CTF ACTIONS IN TIME AND SPACE FROM A PERSPECTIVE OF OPERATIONAL PHASES OR CRITICAL EVENTS. THE CCTF AND THE STAFF VISUALIZE THE FLOW OF THE OPERATION, GIVEN FRIENDLY STRENGTHS AND DISPOSITIONS, PROBABLE THREATS AND PROBABLE COAS THROUGH THE AREA OF OPERATIONS. ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE THE DYNAMICS OF THE OPERATION THROUGH A SERIES OF “ACTION-CONSEQUENCE-COUNTERACTION” SEQUENCES. DURING THIS PROCESS THE STAFF IS TRYING TO CAPTURE THE KEY ELEMENTS THAT COLLECTIVELY DEFINE THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF THE OPERATION. THE KEY ELEMENTS ARE SPECIFIC TASKS (BOTH CTF AND COMPONENT), TASK ORGANIZATION, COMMAND RELATIONSHIPS, SYNCHRONIZATION OF MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER WITH OPERATIONAL FIREPOWER, DECISION POINTS AND INTELLIGENCE REQUIREMENTS RELATED TO MAJOR EVENTS, AND IDENTIFICATION OF AND PRIOR PLANNING FOR OPERATIONAL BRANCHES AND SEQUELS

Synchronization Matrix TIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT PROBABLE THREAT DECISION POINTS CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER OPN FIREPOWER OPN PROTECTION OPN INFORMATION OPN INTEL OPN SUPPORT ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT MARFOR/LAND COMPONENT NAVFOR/MARITIME/JFACC AFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/JFACC JSOTF OTHERS D-DAY/ H-HOUR D + 1 D + 2 FUNCTION JOINT AREAS A SYNCHRONIZATION MATRIX ALLOWS THE STAFF TO RECORD THE RESULTS OF THE WARGAMING AND TO SYNCHRONIZE THE COA OVER A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT PARAMETERS. IT DEPICTS THE TIME OF THE EVENT AND THE PROBABLE THREAT AGAINST WHICH THE FRIENDLY IS BEING WARGAMED. IT REFLECTS THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE COMPONENTS AND THE FUNCTIONAL AREAS. THE MATRIX CAN BE ADAPTED TO THE SITUATION. COMPONENTS

Simplified Sync Matrix ACTOR EVENT COMMENT EVENT COMMENT EVENT COMMENT EVENT COMMENT CTF CARFOR CNAVFOR CAFFOR THIS IS A SAMPLE SIMPLIFIED SYNCHRONIZATION MATRIX. EVENTS CAN BE NUMBERED OR GIVEN SHORT NAMES COMMENTS CAN INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING: -- IDENTIFICATION AS CRITICAL EVENT -- POSSIBLE BRANCH IDEAS -- KEY WEAKNESSES -- ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENTS SUCH AS FORCES OR LOGISTICS FORCES SHOWN ARE FOR EXAMPLE ONLY; ACTUAL MATRIX SHOULD INCLUDE ANY COMPONENTS OR ORGANIZATIONS THAT HELP DEFINE THE EVENT -- OTHER EXAMPLES INCLUDE CFACC, CFLCC,CJRADC CMARFOR CSOTF CPOTF

Sample Analysis Worksheet CRITICAL EVENT: SEQ- UENCE NUMBER ACTION CONSE- QUENCES COUNTER- ACTION ASSETS TIME DECISION POINT CCIR REMARKS ONE WAY TO RECORD ALL PERTINENT DATA GAINED FROM THE WAR GAME IS THE WARGAME WORKSHEET. EACH SHEET IDENTIFIES A CRITICAL EVENT FOR THE HEADQUARTERS CONDUCTING THE WARGAME. USING THE COLUMNS ON THE WORKSHEET, IDENTIFY AND LIST IN SEQUENCE - THE TASKS (ACTIONS) - THE ASSETS (ALLOCATED FORCES) USED - THE EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES - THE COUNTERACTIONS AND THE ASSETS USED - THE TOTAL ASSETS REQUIRED FOR THE TASK - AND THE ESTIMATED TIME REQUIRED TO ACCOMPLISH THE TASK. YOU MAY ALSO MAKE REMARKS REGARDING THE ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES BASED UPON THE RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS.

Action/Reaction/Counteraction CONSEQUENCE COUNTERACTION 1ST Priority is Provide Medical Support Large Population W/O Shelter increases sickness Modify TPFDD to allow CTF to provide shelter and prioritize medical care. THE STAFF CONDUCTS THESE DRILLS UNTIL FORCES COMPLETE THE CRITICAL EVENT. IT NOTES ADVANTAGES, WEAKNESSES OF, AND NECESSARY IMPROVEMENTS TO THE COA. NORMALLY, A C5/C3 REPRESENTATIVE IDENTIFIES THE INITIAL FRIENDLY ACTION. THE STAFF IDENTIFIES THE FULL RANGE OF OPERATIONAL ACTIONS THAT COMPRISE THE INITIAL ACTION. A C2 REP IDENTIFIES THE SAME SCOPE OF CONSEQUENCE. THE STAFF THEN DETERMINES THE COUNTERACTION IN ALL AREAS. THE COUNTERACTION CAN BEGIN THE SEQUENCE AGAIN AS A NEW ACTION, OR A SEPARATE NEW ACTION CAN BEGIN THE SEQUENCE.

Advantages & Disadvantages COA 1 Advantages Disadvantages Single lift in threatened cities Almost no footprint Duration of Operations Weather restriction Security is HN Force Ability to pick up in outlying areas ONE OF THE CRITICAL RESULTS OF THIS WARGAMING PROCESS IS THE LISTING OF ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF THE COA. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE USED LATER IN THE PROCESS TO COMPARE COA’S DON’T COMPARE COAs AGAINST EACH OTHER. - THE COMPARISON SHOULD BE AGAINST THE PROBABLE THREATS.

Advantages & Disadvantages COA 1 Advantages Disadvantages Single lift in threatened cities Almost no footprint Duration of Ops Modifications 1. Inf Bn to conduct evac via land transport 2. Branch: CARFOR uses helos to transport 3. CSOTF assemble and deliver evacuees Weather restriction Security is HN Force Ability to pick up outlying areas AS WE LOOK AT THESE ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES WE NEED TO MAKE MODIFICATIONS TO THE COA TO MINIMIZE THE DISADVANTAGES. KEEP THESE MODIFICATIONS IN MIND AS WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO APPLY MODIFICATIONS TO OTHER COAS. CAREFUL ON MODIFICATIONS. DO NOT WANT TO MODIFY THEM SO THEY ALL START TO LOOK ALIKE. WHAT WE WILL END UP WITH IS THREE ALMOST IDENTICAL COAS.

Results of Analysis Identification of advantages and disadvantages of each friendly COA Identification of additional assets required (if any) Refinements or modifications to the COA Risks and actions to reduce the risk at each geographic location or functional event Adjustments to any established control measures LOTS OF THINGS RESULT FROM THE WARGAMING. SOME ARE SHOWN HERE. WHAT WE NEED FROM A WARGAME.

Analysis Results (cont) Deployment requirements Synchronization requirements Estimate of the duration of critical events as well as the operation as a whole Required support from outside of the CTF Requirements for logistic support Clear picture of command relationships branches and sequels THIS IS A GOOD CHECKLIST OF INFORMATION WHICH CAN BE OBTAINED FROM A GOOD WARGAME. KEY FACTOR IS TO CAPTURE THIS INFORMATION AND MAKE CERTAIN IT GETS TO THE RIGHT PLACE.

Analysis Results (cont) Critical information required to support decision points Additional commander’s decision points Measures of effectiveness for each phase Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillance Identification of component tasks Task Organization requirements

Task Steps Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

Conduct Risk Assessment Identify risks Assess risks Analyze acceptability of risk Identify ways and means of risk mitigation THE RISK ASSESSMENT ALLOWS THE STAFF TO IDENTIFY TO THE CCTF THE AREAS OF THE OPERATION WHERE THERE IS RISK--- RISK OF FAILURE, RISK OF HIGH CASUALTIES, RISK OF CIVILIAN CASUALTIES, RISK OF DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. IT ALLOWS THE STAFF TO SUGGEST ALTERNATIVES OR OPTIONS THAT WOULD LESSEN THAT RISK. RISK MITIGATION CAN HAPPEN THROUGH: INCREASED (OR EVEN DECREASED) MASS, SURPRISE, ETC DIFFERENT FORCE STRUCTURE

Task Steps Course of Action Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

Revalidate Suitable (Adequate): Will the COA accomplish the mission when carried out successfully, In other words, is it aimed at the right objectives? Feasible: Do we have the required resources and can those resources be made available in time? Acceptable: Even though the COA will accomplish the mission and we have the required resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible losses (military, time, political, etc.)? FINALLY, LOOK AT WHETHER ANY MODIFICATION WE HAVE MADE, OR ANY ITEM WHICH HAS COME OUT OF THE ANALYSIS HAS CHANGED THE SUITABILITY, FEASIBILITY, AND ACCEPTABILITY OF THE COA. THIS IS A FINAL CHECK TO ENSURE THE COA STILL WORKS

Lessons Learned Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first. Analyze the end state and transition. Don’t make tactical decisions or get bogged down. First cut thoughts only. The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages and disadvantages, not to prescribe component reactions. During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare friendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs. SOME OF THE LESSONS WE HAVE LEARNED IN RECENT EXERCISES. COA MOST OFTEN OVERLOOKED STEP. YET IT IS AN ESSENTIAL PART OF THE PLANNING PROCESS. THIS IS WHERE THE STAFF ESTIMATES WILL COME INTO PLAY. USE THEM TO ASSIST IN ANALYZING OUR COAS.

QUESTIONS?