Accounting for forests in a post-Paris perspective Dr. Silke Karcher Ministry for the Environment, Nature Protection, Building and Nuclear Safety Brussels, 8 March 2017

LULUCF in a POST-Paris perspective PART I LULUCF in a POST-Paris perspective

Objectives of Paris Article 2 I a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change Article 4 I …to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century Article 5.1 … take action to conserve and enhance … sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases … including forests

Balancing emissions & removals The potential to use removals for balancing emissions is limited Current (natural) sink at EU level: 7% of emissions. Not sufficient for wide-ranging compensation of emissions. Very strong increase of the sink in Europe seems unlikely without significant additional climate action/support – rather a slight decline due to Age structure of forests Intensifed use of biomass

Reducing emissions by 80-95% Limited sink implies: emissions need to be reduced very significantly to achieve PA targets Current numbers imply: emission reductions of 80-95% are definitely needed by 2050 2030 target (at least 40%) is on a cost-effective trajectory towards 80% emissions reduction Implementation in Germany by Climate Action Plan 2050: Conserve and enhance sinks and reservoirs in forests Improvement of CO2-mitigation potential by sustainable forest management

Implications for the 2030 framework Reducing emissions and enhancing removals are not alternatives. We need to pursue both. Cion impact assessment did not include the effect of potential LULUCF credits on 2030 targets Incentives for LULUCF climate action are important – but not at the expense of ambition in other sectors

German position on Accounting for forest removals & emissions PART II German position on Accounting for forest removals & emissions

Policy objectives Setting a value of projected average annual net emissions against which the future emissions will be compared Identify progress in climate action in forest management practices Isolate human influence on managed forest land from natural influence No unfair burden due to age structure dynamics or arbitrary disadvantages for member states Make forest climate benefit comparable to other sectors

German proposal: Setting the FRL New FRL is based on the continuation of forest management practice and intensity, as documented between 2000-2009 coupled with the anticipated age structure dynamics of forests, deviations due to data availability must be justified. Base period: 2009 cut-off date is very important to properly account for bioenergy use under the Renewable Energy Directive (2009). Member states should assume a constant ratio between material and energy use of the wood harvest in the development of the FRL.

Key issues for robust FRL-setting Anticipated effect of policies should not be included in the FRL for three reasons: All anthropogenic emissions/ removals should be accounted for. Therefore, an expected decrease in the forest sink due to management changes should not “disappear” in the FRL. Member states should only be rewarded for real climate action. The EU should set a strong international example.

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