1. Implications of the LULUCF-regulation for the Swedish forest-based sector
Mårten Larsson
Deputy Director General
Swedish Forest Industries Federation

2. Our vision The forest based sector drives growth in the globala bioeconomy
Swedens climate vision and goal One of the first fossil-free welfare states in the world
Fossil-free 2045

3. Source: VMR/SDC/Swedish Forest Industries Federation, 2014
The Swedish forest industry and the Swedish energy sector forms a cluster
Million m3sub*
Sawmills &
plywoodind.
26,4
Export
0,7
Import
7,8
Sawn timber
36,3
Wood chips
9,9
Harvest
70,7
71,6
~100 TWh of
bioenergy in
the Swedish
energy system
Fuelwood etc
6,2
Pulpwood
35,3
Pulp & paper industry.
45,2
*Solid volume under bark
Source: VMR/SDC/Swedish Forest Industries Federation, 2014

4. Policy-makers Forest owners Forest industry
Profound knowledge about the forest resource is needed for governance
Investment decisions in the forest industry
Investments in renewable energy
Investments in forestry
Energy policy
Industrial policy
Forest policy
Demands for even harvesting level over time for individual property
Minimum age for harvesting
Appropriate harvesting methods
Demands for regeneration
Important issues
Policy-makers
Added-value (jobs and investments)
Sustainable management of resources
Development
Forest owners
Security of demand
Profitability
Forest industry
Security of supply years horizon for investments
Wood cost
Profit = Competetive conditions, (globally)
Forest industry

5. IPCCs IV assesment report
Carbon flux
IPCCs IV assesment report
In the long term, a sustainable forest management strategy aimed at maintaining or increasing forest carbon stocks, while producing an annual sustained yield of timber, fibre or energy from the forest, will generate the largest sustained mitigation benefit.
= FRL should be as high as possible taking into account that future generations will have at least as good access to forest biomass as we have.

6. or carbon sink…
Carbon sinks in forests is a risky strategy in a changing climate

7. Sustainable harvesting levels 1933-2029
Source: Forest Agency, rolling 5 years average

8. Sustainable harvesting levels 1933-2029
Source: Forest Agency, rolling 5 years average

9. SFIF - Strategic goals for LULUCF
Keep national competence = Continuation of forest legislation and management practice.
Support a growing bioeconomy
No reduction for historic intensity
A model that supports an active sustainable forest management
No flexibility between Managed Forests and other sectors
Use best available data
Avoid carbon leakage = Limited harvest in the EU will increase imports to the EU and harvests in third countries

10. Implications for the Swedish forest-based sector.
Definitely ”thumps up” but the job is not finished yet
The political agreement
Implementation
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11. Thank you!

12. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases From Land Use in Sweden
CO2-equivalents, Million Tonnes/year
Minus = Carbon Sink
Source: Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

13. Integrating LULUCF in EUs Climate- and energy legislation touches national competence
EU has large/full competence
Energy
EU has relatively large competence but certain issues as energy mix is national competence
Tax
EU has no competence except for state-aid guidelines
Forestry
EU has no competence. Full subsidiarity for member states

14. Assumptions about forests and climate change benefits - what science tells us.
If you assume that biomass must regrow after harvest biomass is worse than coal in the short term. In the long term trees will regrow and then bioenergy will be better than coal.
If you assume that we grow the trees first, then bioenergy is always better than coal.
Suppose we manage an entire state of forests. At any one time harvesting and growing occur simultaneously. Carbon goes into the forest at the same, or higher, rate than it goes out. Bioenergy is far better than coal.
Add product substitution and HWP and the climate change mitigation potential is even higher.