1. The Paris Climate Change Agreement: game changer or more hot air? John Lanchbery

2. Agreement

3. Summary From 30 th November to 12 th December 2015, the nations of the World met in Paris to conclude a new treaty on climate change http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r 01.pdf http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r 01.pdf The agreement applies to all countries – not just developed ones. It sets a new, more ambitious target of keeping temperature rise well below 2°C above pre- industrial levels. It sets up regular reviews of progress in meeting the goal.

4. Applicable to all Unlike the original Climate Change Convention (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1997) the Paris Agreement does not divide countries into different groups. It recognises that they have different capabilities and that some should do more than others but all must act: “The efforts of all Parties will represent a progression over time, while recognizing the need to support developing country Parties for the effective implementation of this Agreement.”

5. What Paris actually says “Developed country Parties should continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets. Developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances. Support shall be provided to developing country Parties for the implementation of this Article, in accordance with Articles 9, 10 and 11, recognizing that enhanced support for developing country Parties will allow for higher ambition in their actions.”

6. What does this mean? 187 countries have submitted so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the UN. These cover nearly all human-induced emissions. Assuming they are carried out, they will keep global average temperature to about 2.7°C. This is not enough but it is a lot better than the 3 or 4°C that we were heading for. They will have to do much more to reach the global goal that Paris set.

7. New Global Goal The goal set in Paris is “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;” This is significantly lower than the previous goal which was to aim to stay below 2°C. The Paris Agreement also asks the global climate science body (IPCC) to advise “on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways”.

8. Ramifications of the new goal

9. Implications for the EU and UK Moving from likely 2°C to 1.5°C (>50%) by 2100. Preliminary conclusion is that: GHG emissions reductions in 2050 need to be about 95-115% below 1990 levels. Perhaps more for UK, Germany,etc. (Rogelj et al. (2013) Nature, Rogelj et al. (2013), Nature Climate Change.) In other words, probably below “net zero” emissions and removals by 2050.

10. Net zero – some concerns According to the IPCC, the global carbon budget for staying below 2°C is about 3,000 billion tonnes CO 2. We have used about 2/3 of this and and have only a rapidly decreasing 1,000 billion tonnes left. We therefore need to be cutting global emissions sharply now - but we are not. Emissions continue to rise and the longer they do the harder it becomes to meet the global temperature goal. It may not be possible to simply stabilise atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. If we do not cut emissions hard and rapidly we may well have to first overshoot the concentration needed and then cut emissions sharply.

11. But.. … as the IPCC says, “The vast majority of scenarios with overshoot of greater than 35-50 ppm CO 2 eq (concentration) deploy carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to an extent that net global CO 2 emissions become negative”

12. Net zero concerns There are good and bad ways of doing CDR. In most emissions pathways involving CDR it is assumed that it will be used on a very large scale, taking land that is currently used for something else, such as food production or wildlife – in developing countries because cheaper. In the models used for the IPCC’s report, the land use change is typically large at more than a billion hectares. In two cases it is colossal at more than 3 billion and 6 billion Ha. There are about 1.5 billion Ha of cropland, 3.5 billion Ha of pasture and 4 billion Ha of forests on the Earth’s 13 billion Ha land area.

13. Land use change for different concentration scenarios

14. Reviews and ratchets: boring but important The first big stocktake of the Paris Agreement will be in 2018. The IPCC will report back on its work on low emission scenarios for 1.5°C. There will be “a facilitative dialogue among Parties to take stock of the collective efforts of Parties in relation to progress towards the long-term goal” and “to inform the preparation of nationally determined contributions”. It is hoped that countries will upgrade their pledges (INDCs) accordingly for the 2021 start.

15. More reviews Once the treaty gets underway, probably in 2021, there will be a “global stocktake” every five years, starting in 2023. Two years before each 5-year INDC is submitted. The idea is that all countries will assess where we are in terms of meeting the global goal and revise their INDCs accordingly. There is no guarantee that any revisions will be sufficient. There never is in international treaties. It will, however, show the public precisely where we all are and let governments know what they think. There will be a mechanism “to facilitate implementation of and promote compliance” but it will be “non-adversarial and non- punitive”!

16. Some nice bits In the preamble to the Agreement there is lots of good stuff, for example. “Recognizing the importance of the conservation and enhancement, as appropriate, of sinks and reservoirs of the greenhouse gases referred to in the Convention,” “Noting the importance of ensuring the integrity of all ecosystems, including oceans, and the protection of biodiversity …” “Also recognizing that sustainable lifestyles and sustainable patterns of consumption and production, with developed country Parties taking the lead, play an important role in addressing climate change,…”

17. More good stuff – on forests Article 5 1. Parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases as referred to in Article 4, paragraph 1(d), of the Convention, including forests. 2. Parties are encouraged to take action to implement and support … policy approaches and positive incentives for activities relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries; and alternative policy approaches … for the integral and sustainable management of forests, while reaffirming the importance of incentivizing, as appropriate, non-carbon benefits associated with such approaches.

18. On money – and forests Also decides that … developed countries intend to continue their existing collective mobilization goal through 2025 in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation; prior to 2025 … shall set a new collective quantified goal from a floor of USD 100 billion per year, taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries. Recognizes the importance of adequate and predictable financial resources, including for results-based payments, as appropriate, for the implementation of policy approaches and positive incentives for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.