Mesoscopic Modeling Approach for Performance Based Planning October 24, 2014

Background Project Scrutiny Federal Funding

RTP Project Evaluation Aftermath Compared “Future Build” with a “Future No-Build” to calculate and prioritize B/C for each project; Could only evaluate roadway capacity projects – not traffic operations; Some B/C ratios were negative; Difficult to isolate project benefits (“spill over” from adjacent projects).

Key Regional Travel Demand Model Features Citilabs Cube Voyager 6.1.1 Trip Based (migrating to ABM) Gravity Model for Trip Distribution Regionwide network assignment, by mode and trip-purpose Network assignment is static and aggregated into multiple-hour time periods (AM, MD, PM, & NT) Assignment output does not account for operational or non- recurring delay.

Were We Using the Right Tool the Right Way?

Revised Approach

Why Go Mesoscopic? Refine Road Geometry Validate Volumes vs. Observed Counts Optimize Signal Timing Time and Cost Efficiency Performance Based Rankings

Subarea Approach Instead of Regionwide Project 1 Project 2 Project 6 Macroscopic Model Mesoscopic Model Subarea Network OD

Existing Regional Model Calibrated Existing Model Deployed Methodology Existing Regional Model Subarea Extraction Import into Visum Match Geometry Counts OD Calibration Calibrated Existing Model Performance Measures Existing No-Build Build Existing 2010 Total Link Volume Nobuild 2040 No-Build Growth Factor NoBuild 2040 OD Matrix Build 2040 Build Proportion Matrix Future Calibrated Existing Model Calibrated No-Build Model Performance Measures Calibrated No-Build Model Calibrated Build Model Performance Measures

Calibrated Assignment 1565, 1515, 1771 1340, 1350, 1470 659, 553, 9 208, 194, 205 719, 692, 455 Minola Dr 506, 485, 430 Fairington Rd 1334, 1265, 1347 871, 947, 1268 222, 231, 77 1239, 1149, 711 324, 328, 542 W Fairington Pkwy Thompson Mill Rd 183, 168, 635 1085, 1030, 884 341, 366, 886 Panola Rd Legend:: Observed, Mesoscopic, Macroscopic 905, 1005, 997 823, 788, 704

Intersection Analysis Analysis Summary AM PM Intersection Existing 2010 Delay (sec/veh) AM (PM) No-Build 2040 Delay Build 2040 Delay Minola Dr – Fairington Rd 49(59) 97(92) 34(52) W Fairington Pkwy 25(29)* 100(145)* 8 (6)* Thompson Mill Rd 13 (16) 17 (21) 11 (19) Intersection Analysis Legend LOS A C (25+) B (10+) D (35+) F (80+) E (55+) No-Build Existing Build

Automated Performance Reporting Macro AM Demand (veh) VMT (mi) VHT (hr) Delay Speed (mph) Delay Per Veh (s) Existing 2010 3,306 2,402 82.5 18.2 29.1 19.8 No-Build 2040 4,231 3,012 146.3 65.8 20.6 56.0 Build 2040 4,282 3,242 113.6 27.1 28.5 22.8 PM Demand (veh) VMT (mi) VHT (hr) Delay Speed (mph) Delay Per Veh (s) Existing 2010 3,837 2,761 91.3 16.7 30.3 15.7 No-Build 2040 4,911 3,255 201.5 113.8 16.2 83.4 Build 2040 5,150 3,715 132.4 32.8 28.1 22.9 Total Cost ($) Annual Cost Annual Benefits B/C Ratio 10,474,594 677,107 1,268,396 1.87 Original Result: -0.46

Step 1 – Define Subarea Done for all assignment scenarios (AM & PM for: existing, build, no-build) Exported from CUBE as .shp Imported automatically into as .ver network file

Step 2 – Subarea Trip Generation (Ps and As) Populated based on TDM output volumes VISUM automatically defined the zones based on network “dangles” Red zones are actual centroid connectors; green are “external”

Step 3 – Edit Geometry Turn lane capacity and prohibitions Imported signal control templates for cycle lengths and phasing Very time intensive for a larger subarea

Step 4 – Subarea Trip Distribution (O/D)

B/C Summary (Before and After) Project B/C ID Name Type Before After DK-065C Panola Rd: Segment 3 Widening -0.46 1.87 DK-065E Panola Rd Up -0.06 1.79 WA-003 Monroe East Connector New Alignment -1.47 2.71 CW-AR-003 I-85 South Interchange -1.94 3.75 DO-252A Chapel hill Rd -0.77 21.84 FA-236A East Fayetteville Bypass -0.94 22.00

Conclusion and Next Steps Project-level analysis is more appropriate Efficient calibration Incorporated operational delay Subarea geography is key Data intensive process First generation was only pseudo-DTA Next RTP Update: Individual macro-assignment, regionwide performance; Combined macro-assignment, individual performance.

For additional information… Kofi Wakhisi, Esq., AICP Section Supervisor – Project Implementation and Partner Services 404.463.3173 kwakhisi@atlantaregional.com Reza Taromi, PhD, PE Travel Demand Modeler – ARCADIS 770.384.6725 reza.taromi@arcadis-us.com