1. Can Multi-Resolution Dynamic Traffic Assignment live up to the Expectation of Reliable Analysis of Incident Management Strategies Lili (Leo) Luo, P.E., ITS & Safety Engineer Sarath Joshua, P.E., Ph.D., ITS & Safety Program Manager

2. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Basic need for evaluation of ITS operational strategies Low cost Efficient Reliable Capable of evaluating area wide impact

3. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference How did we get started? Neither the static Macroscopic Travel Demand Model nor the Microscopic simulation model met our needs Decision to test the emerging Mesoscopic simulation-based DTA model through a Case Study

4. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference The Case Study Approach Convert the 4-step TDM model into DTA (DynusT) model Study a major freeway traffic incident that occurred on I-10 during morning peak period Calibrate the subarea baseline (Normal) model Perform scenario analysis Convert stretch of interest into microscopic simulation model for visualization The modeling effort was conducted in house at MAG

5. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Purpose of the case study Test if the DTA model can be used as an operations planning tool to evaluate strategies Obtain hands-on experience on DTA model from model calibration to scenario analysis Experiment with the concept of Multi- Resolution modeling method

6. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference MAG Regional DTA model 2006 TAZs Over 10,000 SQ Miles 20508 Links 9893 Nodes 2364 Signalized intersections 2.78M Trips during 5 hours of morning peak

7. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Impacted Area of a major Incident

8. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Model Calibration—Count Calibration 87 sensors Collected over a three year time frame

9. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Model Calibration – AM Peak Period Travel Time V.S. GPS Run Freeway Morning Peak Period GPS Run Travel Time Model Travel Time I-10 WB46MIN 24SEC46MIN 30SEC Freeway Morning Peak Period GPS Run Travel Time Model Travel Time US60 WB20MIN20MIN 30SEC Freeway Morning Peak Period GPS Run Travel Time Model Travel Time 202 Santan WB5MIN5MIN 24SEC Freeway Morning Peak Period GPS Run Travel Time Model Travel Time 202 RedMountain WB20MIN18MIN 54SEC Freeway Morning Peak Period GPS Run Travel Time Model Travel Time 101 NB32MIN31MIN Freeway Morning Peak Period GPS Run Travel Time Model Travel Time 143 NB5MIN4MIN 42SEC

10. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Space-Time Diagram showing bottleneck locations Loop202 Red Mountain WB 5:00 10:00 L101 Rural 24 th St Airport Loop 101 NB Fry US60 5:00 10:00 McKellips US 60 WB 5:00 10:00 Loop 101 Rural Rd Mill Ave I-10 Priest Dr. Loop 202 Santan WB 5:00 10:00 L101 Kyren I-10

11. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Time-Dependent Travel Time By Freeway

12. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Real-life Incident  February 4, 2010  Location: Salt River Bridge on I-10 Westbound  Time 6:20AM  Duration: 3 hour 20 minutes  Severity: Three lanes blocked all the time, I- 10 completely shut down three times.

13. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Incident Scenario Scenario 0 — Baseline (Normal Condition) Scenario 1— With ITS Infrastructure (DMS and Ramp Metering) turned on Scenario 2 — Without ITS Infrastructure

14. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Traveler Information and Congestion Response Pre-trip and In-route information DMS congestion warning Driver congestion response behavior

15. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Scenario 1 With ITS Infrastructure

16. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Scenario 1: With ITS infrastructure Tempe to Downtown Phoenix Travel Time South Tempe & Northwest Chandler Downtown Phoenix South Tempe/Northwest Chandler To Phoenix Downtown Travel Time BaselineIncident With DMS & Ramp Meter 28 Min52 Min

17. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Affected Routes

18. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference 3 Mile Upstream of Crash Site on I-10

19. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Samples of impacted vehicle Vehicle ID:682622 Departure Time:7:02 AM Origin: Santan Freeway @ Alma School Road Destination:Glendale Avenue @ 16th Street ScenariosBaseline DMS & Ramp Metering Travel Time78MIN139MIN

20. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Another Vehicle Vehicle ID:481654 Departure Time:6:40 AM Origin:US 60 @ Dobson Rd Destination:Dunlap Ave @ 43 th Ave ScenariosBaseline DMS & Ramp Metering Travel Time45MIN110MIN

21. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Scenario 2 (No ITS Infrastructure) Tempe to Downtown Phoenix Travel Time South Tempe & Northwest Chandler Downtown Phoenix South Tempe/Northwest Chandler To Phoenix Downtown Travel Time Baseline Incident without ITS Infrastructure 28 Min51 Min

22. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Scenario 2 (No ITS Infrastructure)

23. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Baseline VS incident with ITS VS Incident without ITS

24. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Scenario 2 (No ITS Infrastructure)

25. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Vehicles under No ITS scenario Vehicle ID:682622 Departure Time:7:02 AM Origin: Santan Freeway @ Alma School Road Destination:Glendale Avenue @ 16th Street ScenariosBaselineNo ITS Travel Time45MIN123MIN Vehicle ID:682622 Departure Time:7:02 AM Origin: Santan Freeway @ Alma School Road Destination:Glendale Avenue @ 16th Street ScenariosBaseline DMS & Ramp Metering Travel Time45MIN139MIN

26. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Another Vehicle Vehicle ID:481654 Departure Time:6:40 AM Origin:US 60 @ Dobson Rd Destination:Dunlap Ave @ 43 th Ave Scenarios BaselineIncident Without ITS Travel Time45MIN129MIN Vehicle ID:481654 Departure Time:6:40 AM Origin:US 60 @ Dobson Rd Destination:Dunlap Ave @ 43 th Ave Scenarios BaselineIncident with DMS & Ramp Metering Travel Time45MIN110MIN

27. 13 th TRB Planning Application ConferenceSummary Vehicle Hours Travel (VHT) FreewaysBaselineDMS & Ramp Meter No ITS infrastructure I-104154.8586004.0676196.473 US604413.6826795.5976891.945 L202RedMountain2698.812885.4472848.178 South Tempe/Northwest Chandler To Downtown Phoenix Travel Time Baseline Incident with DMS & Ramp Meter Incident without ITS infrastructure 28 Min52 Min51 Min

28. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Meso-Micro conversion Selected area subarea cut for VISSIM micro simulation using DynusT-VISSIM converter All time-dependent routes and flows are converted A little more network clean up More detail timing and crash setup

29. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference VISSIM Microscopic Simulation

30. 13 th TRB Planning Application ConferenceConclusions Mesoscopic Simulation-based DTA model DynusT:   Capable of demonstrating the status of our freeway system operation in a capacity restraint and time-dependent manner.   Able to match field observed data following relatively simple procedure for model calibration.

31. 13 th TRB Planning Application ConferenceConclusions   Logical scenario analysis outcomes   Demonstrate the benefit of traveler information/ITS during an incident with region wide impact   Reasonable cost and effort   Combined with Macro and Micro models for Multi-Resolution Modeling to answer complicated questions   Appear useful for operations planning

32. 13 th TRB Planning Application Conference Lessons Learnt Leverage data collection efforts with Travel Demand Model More sensitive to network and data errors—Very Important!!! Could extract more useful information from the model Start with the entire regional model

33. 13 th TRB Planning Application ConferenceQuestions Email: lluo@azmag.govlluo@azmag.gov Tel: 602-452-5072