IAEA PERSPECTIVE ON THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR POWER A OMOTO, Director Division of Nuclear Power, IAEA Presented by R I Facer Division of Nuclear Power, IAEA Apologies that my Director is unable to attend. He sends his greetings to the meeting and wishes us success.

Historical perspective History Power requirements of developing countries By 1959 20 countries had asked for advice on developing nuclear power Today some 60 countries have shown an interest in nuclear power applications But there are only 30 countries with nuclear power plants operating Mr Sokolov presented much of the history on Monday. !953, Eisenhower 1954 Fifty years ago this year UN General Assembly called for the formation of the IAEA 1955 First Geneva Conference IAEA Statute adopted, Agency formed to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace health and prosperity throughout the world - encourage and develop the practical application of atomic energy for peaceful uses throughout the world Today over 130 countries work with the IAEA on the application of nuclear technology Nuclear science is not the property of a few. But nuclear energy for power is limited to a few countries About 60 countries have expressed interest in nuclear power plants, but only 30 countries have them

NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH NPP 30 25 20 15 10 Initially rapid growth, by 1983 nuclear power plants operating on five continents Many more interested at the time. The same issues remain today, but why has there been no further development 5 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Energy use and standard of living Energy relates to standard of living To improve standard of living many countries need more energy availability

This shows briefly the disparity in energy availability More than 1 billion people are without access to electricity. Even where they have access they may have little infrastructure in which to use it An even greater number rely on biomass as their sole energy source

Current Status 440 nuclear power plants 31 under construction expansion centered in Far East and South Asia 18 of 31 under construction in China, India, Japan, N. Korea, S. Korea, Taiwan 20 of last 29 connections in Asia

IAEA Nuclear Energy Role Nuclear Energy provides the core engineering, technological and management support to interested Member States Three key objectives guide current work Enhancement of capability Enhancement of capacity Improvement of public understanding Where can IAEA nuclear energy Department provide assistance Existing plants Helping new countries to keep open the option for nuclear power Helping to improve the public understanding of the arguments for nuclear energy

Future energy needs Electricity Desalination and Hydrogen production Technical innovation Improved Infrastructure and institutional arrangements Nuclear can meet other needs, not just electricity Innovation is actively investigated within the Agency, technical innovation infrastructure innovation

Sea-water desalination Applications of nuclear energy Sea-water desalination Heat for industrial processes and district heating Hydrogen production Nuclear Energy’s potential At present nuclear energy contributes a tiny slice of the potential that it could provide for the world’s energy needs. Only a small part of the potential electrical use, and an even smaller part of the heat potential Energy consumption by application

Innovation Technology Infrastructure development Improved designs Improved fuel cycle and waste management Infrastructure development Liability Finance and contractual arrangments Safeguards and security Fuel cycle agreements Examples of innovation currently being considered

Issues for the future Economics Cost of externalities Price stability Emissions, environmental impact, global warming Price stability Resource availability National energy security Issues that are recognised as needing to be considered It is a competitive market, investors will demand a return on capital. Even Governments have to justify their decisions Apart from Capital cost what issues are significant Externalities Price stability double the cost of uranium and the cost of electricity from a nuclear plant is only slightly affected (check value from Press release) double the cost of gas or oil and the cost of electricity increases by 40% or so. Uranium is not limited in supply Nuclear energy can support national security of energy supply

Market-based selection Fair evaluation for sustainable development Viability of nuclear power 1) sustainability in terms of long-term resources supply & environment 2) stable energy price Deregulated electricity market These viabilities sometimes not properly accounted for Need for Fair evaluation - Large uncertainties - In order to alleviate unnecessary burden in the later generations Market-based selection Cost Externalities An example of how different concerns can influence judgement on nuclear power The decision based upon short term return, or long term considerations. Governments may wish to consider how they can ensure that externalities are considered in a commercial market Power Generation Cost A B C D Power generation options

Future activities for IAEA Support of operating reactors Exchange technical knowledge and experience Develop national capabilities Modernise infrastructure arrangements Modernise international institutions and legal arrangements for worldwide application of nuclear energy The Agency will be involved in all of these. This will not diminish the Agency’s attention to Safety, Security or Safeguards, But to maintain the option for countries that wish to adopt nuclear energy the Agency will need to continue to be active in the field of Nuclear Energy

The future After fifty years nuclear is a mature technology We look forward to a growth in the application of nuclear energy for other applications, and a spread of the number of countries using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes 50 years after Obninsk showed the way….

Future for the IAEA We look forward to hearing suggestions about other ways in which the IAEA can contribute to the application of nuclear energy Thank you for your interest