What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues? Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues? What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, & technology? Friday: Population, Affluence or Technology (or not as simple as that)

IPAT Impact on the environment = Population x Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice IPAT Impact on the environment = Population x Activity per person (or Affluence) x Technology (impact per activity). I = P x A x T How many of us are there? How much stuff are we doing? How environmentally damaging is the stuff we’re doing? Assumes affluence = consumption

IPAT and climate change Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice IPAT and climate change Impact (CO2 and other GHG emissions) = Population x Affluence (GDP* per person) x Technology (Emissions per unit of GDP). I = P x A x T (now you do the units analysis**) * Gross Domestic Product measures a country’s economic output (and income). ** Hint: I should equal emissions

IPAT and climate change Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice IPAT and climate change **Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP What’s happening with population? What’s happening with the economy (GDP per person)? What’s happening with technology (emissions per unit GDP)?

IPAT and climate change Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice IPAT and climate change Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP What’s happening with population?

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 Billions - 1968: Garrett Hardin freaks out October 20, 2008 February 4, 2009 ~21,000,000 This looks a lot like exponential growth!

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Why? http://esa.un.org/unpp/ -- UN World Population Prospects 2006 Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: 543 - 545).

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Ehrlich ‘68 Hardin ‘68 Great Leap Forward http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldgrgraph.html

How many children did your grandparents have (on average)? One Two Three Four Five Six or more

How many children did your parents have? One Two Three Four Five Six or more

How many children do you want to have, or how many did you have? Zero or adopt One Two Three Four Five Six or more

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice What happens next? 2010

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=31&c=cd&l=en Afghanistan Malawi Zimbabwe India China Greece Austria USA Norway

Demographic transition Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Demographic transition World population is still increasing, but it appears to be heading for a peak of around 9.3 billion. Why??? Coercion (Tony)? Environmental awareness? The invisible hand? Mostly just blind luck! China’s one child policy Is 9 billion a lot or a little? The UN’s range for 2300 is 2 to 36 billion!

Population Density (#/km2) World population density will increase from 44.6 people/sq km in 2004 to 66 in 2050. Ranges from Bangladesh (1045), India (336), China (138) to USA (31) and Canada (3.2)

From UN, The World at Six Billion Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice From UN, The World at Six Billion Of the 81.6 million people currently added to the world each year, 90+% live in the less developed regions. Countries with population over 100 million In 1950 (4): China, India, U.S., Russian federation In 2000 (10), add Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Nigeria In 2050 (18), add Ethiopia, Congo, Mexico, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Egypt, Turkey.

IPAT and climate change Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice IPAT and climate change Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP What’s happening with population? What’s happening with GDP per person?

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Per capita GDP Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the size of economic activity in a country. U.S., 2007: $45,800 GDP per capita China, 2007: $5,400 Zimbabwe 2007: $200 In 2005, world GDP rose by ≈4-5%, so per capita GDP growth was ≈3-4%. CIA World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html

Compare GDP with other measures Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Compare GDP with other measures 2.5 - 1953 10.8 - 1982 3.8 - 2000 7.2 - 2008 (5.1 - 33.7) 15.4%

Affluence ~ Consumption Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Affluence ~ Consumption Summarize We consume a lot, we create a lot of waste. We are trying to reduce our consumption and our waste. Check out this web site: http://www.chrisjordan.com/

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice US & Australia Czech Rep. & Portugal China Norway Switzerland Sweden Austria Iceland France Key World Energy Statistics 2008 http://www.iea.org/Textbase/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1199

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/china/part2.html. China GDP per capita: $6,800 from https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html India GDP per capita: $3,300 U.S. GDP per capita: $42,000

IPAT and climate change Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice IPAT and climate change Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP What’s happening with population? What’s happening with GDP per person? By 2100, population may be 50% higher, and GDP/person may be 50-500% higher. Yoram’s conclusion: If we’re going to reduce GHG emissions, it’s gotta be technology. Justice, power, conflict issues will likely result in a combination of factors that will or will not result in change.

Chertow describes IPAT and its history Chertow describes IPAT and its history. She mentions a major transformation in perspective. Who embraced this change? Barry Commoner Paul Ehrlich James Speth Garrett Hardin

This transformation ‘argued’ that the burden of reducing pollution lay with … Curbing population Transforming society Technology Taxes Tears

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Good news: Energy use per unit of GDP is falling! (Our economies are becoming less energy- and carbon-intensive.)

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Bad news: The drop in T (technology) has not been keeping pace with increases in P (population) and A (affluence).

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Technological realism: If China and the U.S. keep building coal plants like crazy, IPAT suggests that carbon emissions will not fall. It better be T!!!

In your view, should we be thinking about dealing with CO2 emissions? Yes No Currently not sure

If you answered yes, what option represents your approach to the solution? I = P*A*T

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice Views on technology Technological optimists: “Technology will save us! Wind/solar/fuel cells/nuclear/etc.” Technological pessimists: “Technology won’t save us—we need changes in values and lifestyles.” Technological realists: “If technology doesn’t save us, we’re not going to be saved.” Combination

Summary What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues? What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, and technology? Stay tuned to the Friday debate on population, affluence, and technology! Web site with time, population, life expectancy, etc. http://www.gapminder.org/