1. What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues?
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues?
What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, & technology?
Why is Yoram a “technological realist” about climate change?
Why is Tom otherwise?

2. IPAT Impact on the environment = Population x
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
IPAT
Impact on the environment =
Population x
Activity per person (or Affluence) x
Technology (impact per activity).
I = P x A x T
How many of us are there? How much stuff are we doing? How environmentally damaging is the stuff we’re doing?
Assumes affluence = consumption

3. IPAT and climate change
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Impact (CO2 and other GHG emissions) =
Population x
Affluence (GDP* per person) x
Technology (Emissions per unit of GDP).
I = P x A x T (now you do the units analysis)
* Gross Domestic Product measures a country’s economic output (and income).

4. IPAT and climate change
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP
What’s happening with population?
What’s happening with the economy (GDP per person)?
What’s happening with technology (emissions per unit GDP)?

5. IPAT and climate change
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP
What’s happening with population?

6. Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
Billions -
1968: Garrett Hardin freaks out
October 20, 2008
This looks a lot like exponential growth!

7. Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: ).

8. Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Why?
Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: ).

9. How many children did your grandparents have (on average)?
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six or more

10. How many children did your parents have?
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six or more

11. How many children do you want to have, or how many did you have?
Zero or adopt
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six or more

12. Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
What happens next?
2010

13. Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Afghanistan
Malawi
Zimbabwe
India
China
Greece
Austria
USA
Norway

14. Demographic transition
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Demographic transition
World population is still increasing, but it appears to be heading for a peak of around 9 billion. Why???
Coercion? Environmental awareness? The invisible hand?
Mostly just blind luck!
Is 9 billion a lot or a little?
The UN’s range for 2300 is 2 to 36 billion!

15. From UN, The World at Six Billion
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
From UN, The World at Six Billion
Of the 78 million people currently added to the world each year, 95 percent live in the less developed regions.
Countries with population over 100 million
In 1950: China, India, U.S., Russian federation
In 2000, add Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Nigeria
In 2050, add Ethiopia, Congo, Mexico, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Egypt, Turkey.
World population density will increase from 44.6 people/sq km in 2004 to 66 in 2050.
Ranges from Bangladesh (1045), India (336), China (138) to USA (31) and Canada (3.2)

16. IPAT and climate change
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP
What’s happening with population?
What’s happening with GDP per person?

17. Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Per capita GDP
Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the size of economic activity in a country.
U.S., 2007: $45,800 GDP per capita
China, 2007: $5,400
Zimbabwe 2007: $200
In 2005, world GDP rose by ≈4-5%, so per capita GDP growth was ≈3-4%.
CIA World Factbook

18. Compare GDP with other measures
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Compare GDP with other measures

19. Affluence ~ Consumption (?)
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Affluence ~ Consumption (?)
A gold wedding ring ~ 3 tons of discharge at a mine in South Africa or the U.S. (47% of gold is recycled).
A gold watch ~ 10 to 20 tons.
Lunch with two quarter pounders
If animal was from Brazil, then 54 ft2 (~5 m2) of rain forest is gone, 59 lb of methane produced, ~200 gallons of water, 3.74 lb of grain
Hamburger bun required wheat, water, nitrogen fertilizer.
To build your car, it took 605,664 gallons of water for its steel parts and tires. Battery ~ lbs of lead produces ~ 682 lbs of pollution at a mine in Australia or the U.S. (73% is recycled), Car has 22 lbs of copper produces ~2178 lbs of discharge somewhere in Chile or the U.S. (60% is recycled).
Professor Yannis Phillis

20. Average US Citizen (per day)
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Average US Citizen (per day)
Consumes 0.44 lbs (or 53 teaspoons) of sweetners per day (mostly in processed food)
Produces 33 lbs of C per day (20% of which is due to the personal automobile)
Excluded food and fuel, one consumes 222 lbs of material per day
Generates 4.4 lbs of garbage (33% is packaging)
Ecological footprint is 4x world average; China and India are well below world average.
Professor Yannis Phillis

21. Professor Phillis’ Model of Sustainability
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Professor Phillis’ Model of Sustainability
Overall sustainability (OSUS) = ecological sustainability (ECOS) + human sustainability (HUMS)
ECOS = air quality, water quality, land integrity, biodiversity
HUMS = Political aspects, education, economic welfare, health
Andriantiatsaholiniaina, L.A., V.S. Kouikoglou and Y.A. Phillis Evaluating strategies for sustainable development: fuzzy logic reasoning and sensitivity analysis
Ecological Economics 48:

22. Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

23. Comparison of Cars per Person
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Comparison of Cars per Person
Country
Number of Cars per person ≥ 16 years old
United States
1.023
France
0.700
Japan
0.608
India
0.011
China
0.009
ABC News 2007

24. Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
China GDP per capita: $6,800 from
India GDP per capita: $3,300
U.S. GDP per capita: $42,000

25. IPAT and climate change
Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP
What’s happening with population?
What’s happening with GDP per person?
By 2100, population may be 50% higher, and GDP/person may be % higher.
Yoram’s conclusion: If we’re going to reduce GHG emissions, it’s gotta be technology.
Justice and power issues will likely result in a combination of changes.

26. McKibben argues for a change from ______ to durability and resiliency
Green GNP
Sustainability
Demand for expansion
Concept of justice
Web of connections

27. McKibben also argues for moving from “X” to “Y”
Community to wildness
Five channel to cable TV
Wildness to community
Thinking about the future to thinking about now

28. Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Good news: Energy use per unit of GDP is falling! (Our economies are becoming less energy- and carbon-intensive.)

29. Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Bad news: The drop in T (technology) has not been keeping pace with increases in P (population) and A (affluence).

30. Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Technological realism: If China and the U.S. keep building coal plants like crazy, IPAT suggests that carbon emissions will not fall.
It better be T!!!

31. Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice
Views on technology
Technological optimists: “Technology will save us! Wind/solar/fuel cells/nuclear/etc.”
Technological pessimists: “Technology won’t save us—we need changes in values and lifestyles.”
Technological realists: “If technology doesn’t save us, we’re not going to be saved.”
Combination: Matching global aspirations with emerging situation - McKibben readings

32. What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues?
What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, and technology?
Why is Yoram a “technological realist” about climate change?
Why has Tom chosen more than technology as a solution?