National Economic Conditions May 24, 2016

The views expressed here are my own and do not represent those of my colleagues at the Federal Reserve

Real Gross Domestic Product FOMC Projection Q1 0.5% Note: Projection is the median, central tendency, and range from the March 2016 Summary of Economic Projections. Red dots indicate median projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board

Contributions to Real GDP Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board

ISM: Business Survey Indexes To be Overhauled DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate more favorable responses towards economic activity. Source: Institute for Supply Management via Haver Analytics

Industrial Production 2012 = 100 Mining Overall March To be Overhauled Manufacturing Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

Disposable Personal Income & Expenditures 12 Month % Change Real Disposable Personal Income March Real Personal Consumption Expenditure To be Overhauled Note: Real disposable personal Income was adjusted to remove tax-induced income shifting near end of 2012. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks Millions of Vehicles April 17.42 mil. Autos and Light Trucks Light Trucks To be Overhauled Autos Source: Autodata Corporation via Haver Analytics

Household Net Worth To be Overhauled Percent of disposable personal income Q4. To be Overhauled Source: Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States via Haver Analytics

Average Annual Existing Home Sales: Existing Single-Family Home Sales Millions of Homes March 4.76 mil. To be Overhauled Average Annual Existing Home Sales: 1990 through 1999 Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics

NAR Housing Affordability Index Index, (median income/median qualifying income)*100 To be Overhauled Source: NAR via Haver Analytics

1990 - 1999 Average Housing Starts Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits Millions of Starts & Permits 1990 - 1999 Average Housing Starts Starts March To be Overhauled Permits Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Q1 -5.9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

Real Private Construction Put In Place 2009$, Billions Real Private Residential Construction Real Private Nonresidential Construction March To be Overhauled Notes: Private nonresidential construction deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential structures and private residential construction deflated using the private residential investment chain price index. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

Core Capital Goods To be Overhauled Current $, Billions New Orders March Shipments To be Overhauled Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

Business Inventory/Sales Ratio Percent Retailers March To be Overhauled Total Business Manufacturers Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

Exports To be Overhauled Current $, Billions Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

Exchange Value of the USD Index, March 1973 = 100 April To be Overhauled Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar. Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

Nonfarm Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

Unemployment Rate Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the March 2016 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

Measures of Labor Utilization Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

Labor Force Participation Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

Average Hourly Earnings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business Year over Year % Change Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Post-War Average Q1 0.6% To be Overhauled Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index 12 Month % Change FOMC Projection 2% Longer-run Target To be Overhauled March 0.8% Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the March 2016 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil. Crude Oil Prices Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil. Source: Financial Times & New York Mercantile Exchange via Haver Analytics & Bloomberg

Commodity Price Indexes 12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change Commodity Research Bureau Spot Commodity Price Index (Right Axis) April PPI Core Intermediate Goods (Left Axis) To be Overhauled Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics

TIPS Inflation Compensation May 6th Source: Board of Governors Research Series via Haver Analytics

Federal Reserve System Assets Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Funds Rate Note: Each dot in the chart represents the value of an FOMC participant’s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range (or the appropriate target level) for the federal funds rate at the end of the calendar year. Projections made for the March 2016 meeting. Source: Board of Governors

Capital Market Rates May 13th Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

Risk Premium May 13th Note: Risk Premium is defined as the difference in yields between BofA Merrill Lynch BBB and 10-year Treasury. Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

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